????通訊員 據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)2月28日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)IEA石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告(OMR)顯示， 2021年全球石油日需求量將增長(zhǎng)540萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到9640萬(wàn)桶，恢復(fù)到去年因疫情而損失量的60%左右。盡管預(yù)計(jì)21年第一季度石油需求將從去年第四季度的低點(diǎn)下降100萬(wàn)桶/日，但更有利的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景支撐了下半年需求的增強(qiáng)。新數(shù)據(jù)的整合將2019年的基準(zhǔn)產(chǎn)量降低了33萬(wàn)桶/天。
????由于歐佩克+的減產(chǎn)幅度有所緩解，非歐佩克+的產(chǎn)量增加，1月份全球石油供應(yīng)增加了59萬(wàn)桶/天，至9360萬(wàn)桶/天。2月隨著沙特阿拉伯實(shí)施大規(guī)模自愿減產(chǎn)，全球石油產(chǎn)量將出現(xiàn)下降。OPEC+聯(lián)盟以外國(guó)家的前景正在改善，預(yù)計(jì)2021年將增加83萬(wàn)桶/天，而2020年則減少130萬(wàn)桶/天。
????全球隱含存量減少?gòu)娜ツ甑谌径鹊拿咳?56萬(wàn)桶加速到第四季度的每日224萬(wàn)桶。去年12月，OECD工業(yè)類庫(kù)存續(xù)第五個(gè)月下跌。當(dāng)月庫(kù)存減少4460萬(wàn)桶(即144萬(wàn)桶/天)，庫(kù)存為30.63億桶，比五年平均水平高出1.383億桶。產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)跌。OECD原油庫(kù)存比2020年5月的峰值低6280萬(wàn)桶。1月份的數(shù)據(jù)顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)下滑。
????2月初洲際交易所布蘭特原油期貨升至逾60美元/桶，12個(gè)月現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)突破4美元/桶，使價(jià)格回到疫情前的水平。票據(jù)市場(chǎng)推動(dòng)價(jià)格走高，反映了21年下半年有利的整體經(jīng)濟(jì)前景和歐佩克+供應(yīng)削減。現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)落后于期貨市場(chǎng)，因?yàn)閮r(jià)差反映了結(jié)算貨物的一些延遲。
????因?yàn)槎糁菩鹿谝咔槁拥拇胧?其傳染性更強(qiáng)的變種)嚴(yán)重影響了全球石油需求的近期復(fù)蘇，石油市場(chǎng)的再平衡在2021年初仍然脆弱。但下半年更為積極的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景，以及歐佩克+承諾加快削減過(guò)剩石油庫(kù)存，為油價(jià)提供了新的支撐。2月初，市場(chǎng)趨緊的前景將基準(zhǔn)原油價(jià)格推至一年高點(diǎn)，布倫特原油價(jià)格為60美元/桶，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格為57美元/桶。
????郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)
????原文如下：
????GLOBAL OIL DEMAND SET TO REACH 96.4 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2021
????According to the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) world oil demand is set to grow by 5.4 mb/d in 2021 to reach 96.4 mb/d, recovering around 60% of the volume lost to the pandemic in 2020. While oil demand is expected to fall by 1 mb/d in 1Q21 from already low 4Q20 levels, a more favourable economic outlook underpins stronger demand in the second half of the year. The incorporation of new data lowered the 2019 baseline by 330 kb/d.
????Global oil supply rose 590 kb/d in January, to 93.6 mb/d, as OPEC+ cuts eased and non-OPEC+ pumped more. In February, global output is set to fall as Saudi Arabia implements a sizeable voluntary cut. The outlook is improving for countries outside the OPEC+ alliance, with an 830 kb/d gain expected in 2021 versus a 2020 loss of 1.3 mb/d.
????Global implied stock draws accelerated from 1.56 mb/d in 3Q20 to 2.24 mb/d in 4Q20. In December, OECD industry stocks fell for the fifth consecutive month. A monthly decline of 44.6 mb (1.44 mb/d) left inventories at 3 063 mb, 138.3 mb above their five-year average. Products led the fall. OECD crude stocks were 62.8 mb below the May 2020 peak. January data show continued declines.
????ICE Brent crude futures rose above $60/bbl in early February and the 12-month backwardation breached $4/bbl, returning prices to pre-pandemic levels. Paper markets drove prices higher, reflecting a favourable overall economic outlook for 2H21 and OPEC+ supply cuts. Physical markets have lagged futures as differentials reflect some delays in clearing cargoes.
????The rebalancing of the oil market remains fragile in the early part of 2021 as measures to contain the spread of Covid-19, with its more contagious variants, weigh heavily on the near-term recovery in global oil demand. But fresh support has been provided by a more positive economic outlook for the second half of the year, along with a pledge from OPEC+ to hasten the drawdown of surplus oil inventories. The prospect of tighter markets ahead lifted benchmark crude oil prices to one-year highs in early February, with Brent trading at $60/bbl and WTI at $57/bbl.
