???? 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)4月6日消息：歐佩克+上周出人意料地決定在7月前將石油日產(chǎn)量累計(jì)減少200萬(wàn)桶，這是基于對(duì)第二季度石油需求強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇的預(yù)期。然而，最近的需求擔(dān)憂表明，該聯(lián)盟的供應(yīng)管理政策可能再次更多地停留在客戶評(píng)估領(lǐng)域。

????路透社專欄作家Clyde Russell寫(xiě)道，未來(lái)三個(gè)月集體減產(chǎn)幅度將超過(guò)100萬(wàn)桶，加上沙特阿拉伯逐漸取消其額外的100萬(wàn)桶/天減產(chǎn)，表明歐佩克+預(yù)期需求將強(qiáng)勁反彈并證明供應(yīng)增加是合理的。

????然而，在疫苗接種計(jì)劃滯后的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，新冠病毒卷土重來(lái)的不可預(yù)測(cè)性可能會(huì)再次破壞歐佩克+預(yù)測(cè)和供應(yīng)管理政策。

????上周，歐佩克+決定在5月和6月分別將逐步增加35萬(wàn)桶/天的石油產(chǎn)量，7月將增加40萬(wàn)桶/天以上。另外，沙特阿拉伯還將在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月內(nèi)逐步放寬100萬(wàn)桶/天的額外單邊減產(chǎn)措施，從5月和6月每月增產(chǎn)25萬(wàn)桶開(kāi)始。

????盡管對(duì)歐佩克+周四會(huì)議結(jié)果的最初下意識(shí)反應(yīng)是大量拋售石油，因?yàn)轭~外的供應(yīng)即將到來(lái)，但當(dāng)天價(jià)格強(qiáng)勁，漲幅超過(guò)3%，由于市場(chǎng)意識(shí)到歐佩克+決定向市場(chǎng)投放更多原油，預(yù)計(jì)石油需求將會(huì)增加。

????Russell表示，由于汽油需求強(qiáng)勁，亞洲對(duì)原油的需求看似強(qiáng)勁，但柴油和航空燃料需求依然疲弱。

????多數(shù)分析師仍然認(rèn)為，隨著夏季需求的增強(qiáng)，市場(chǎng)將能夠消化歐佩克+的新增原油。例如，高盛仍看好石油，并預(yù)計(jì)強(qiáng)勁的需求將要求歐佩克+在第三季度向市場(chǎng)再投放200萬(wàn)桶/天的原油供應(yīng)，而此前歐佩克和沙特阿拉伯決定在5月至7月期間恢復(fù)約200萬(wàn)桶/天的供應(yīng)。

????馮娟 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

????原文如下：

????OPEC Is Betting Big On Robust Oil Demand Recovery

????Last week’s surprise decision from OPEC+ to ease the production cuts by a cumulative 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by July relies on expectations of robust oil demand recovery in the second quarter. Yet, recent demand concerns suggest the alliance’s supply management policies could once again be more in the realm of guestimates.

????The easing of the collective cuts by over 1 million bpd over the next three months, plus Saudi Arabia reversing gradually its extra 1 million bpd cut signal that OPEC+ expects demand to rebound strongly and justify supply increases, Reuters columnist Clyde Russell writes.

????However, the unpredictability of the COVID resurgence in major economies lagging behind in vaccination programs could spoil the OPEC+ forecasts and supply management policies once again.

????Last week, OPEC+ decided to gradually increase collective oil production by 350,000 bpd in each of May and June and by more than 400,000 bpd in July. Additionally, Saudi Arabia will also gradually ease its extra unilateral cut of 1 million bpd over the course of the next few months, beginning with monthly production increases of 250,000 bpd in each of May and June.

????Although the initial knee-jerk reaction to the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday was heavy selling in oil because additional supply is coming, prices finished strong that day with more than 3-percent gains as the market realized that OPEC+ expects strengthening of oil demand with its decision to put more crude on the market.

????Asia’s demand for crude looks strong as gasoline demand looks robust, but demand for diesel and jet fuel is still soft, according to Reuters’ Russell.

????Most analysts continue to believe that the market will be able to absorb the new barrels from OPEC+ with strengthening demand going into the summer months. Goldman Sachs, for example, is still bullish on oil and anticipates strong demand that would require OPEC+ putting another 2 million bpd on the market in the third quarter, after the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May and July.

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