據(jù)安迅思休斯頓4月19日消息，由于關(guān)鍵商品的強(qiáng)勁需求和供應(yīng)緊張，華爾街分析師看好2021年化工公司的盈利狀況，其中一家公司提高了其在化工領(lǐng)域16家公司中的10家的盈利預(yù)期。
Alembic全球顧問(wèn)公司分析師哈桑.艾哈邁德在一份研究報(bào)告中表示，他預(yù)計(jì)2021年剩余時(shí)間里，產(chǎn)品價(jià)格上漲將超過(guò)原材料成本通脹，每股平均收益同比增長(zhǎng)33%的預(yù)期“似乎比較保守”。他表示:“我們相信，在2021年期間，我們關(guān)注的一些公司極有可能出現(xiàn)盈利正面修正。”
美國(guó)油漆和涂料生產(chǎn)商PPG上周宣布，第一季度凈銷(xiāo)售額比去年同期增長(zhǎng)15%，超過(guò)了最初的預(yù)期。
艾哈邁德表示，向消費(fèi)者傳遞原材料成本的能力正在令一些綜合產(chǎn)品的利潤(rùn)率較上年同期強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。
在與新冠疫情大流行有關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)最初關(guān)閉之后，化學(xué)品需求的迅速恢復(fù)是顯而易見(jiàn)的，因?yàn)?020年下半年化學(xué)品需求顯著增加。
化學(xué)品需求快速?gòu)?fù)蘇的趨勢(shì)延續(xù)至第一季度，盡管2月份冬季風(fēng)暴致使美國(guó)海灣地區(qū)的許多生產(chǎn)商停產(chǎn)，打擊了產(chǎn)量。
艾哈邁德表示:“受需求反彈和生產(chǎn)中斷的影響，2021年第一季度大多數(shù)大宗化學(xué)品價(jià)格同比上漲。”他指出，聚乙烯合同價(jià)格同比上漲50.8%，乙烯合同價(jià)格同比上漲68.9%。
張春曉 摘譯自 ICIS
原文如下：
Analyst eyes strong US 2021 chem earnings as price gains should outweigh raw material cost inflation
Robust demand and tight supply of key commodities have Wall Street analysts bullish on 2021 chemical company earnings, with one boosting 2021 earnings estimates for 10 of the 16 companies it covers in the chemical space.
Hassan Ahmed, an analyst at Alembic Global Advisors, said in a research note on Monday that he expects that product price gains should outweigh raw material cost inflation over the rest of 2021 and that expectations of an average earnings per share increase of 33% year over year “seems tepid”.“We believe it's highly possible that some of our covered companies will experience positive earnings revisions throughout 2021,” he said.
US-based paints and coatings producer PPG announced last week that they beat initial guidance as Q1 net sales were 15% higher than the same quarter a year ago.
Ahmed said the ability to pass through rising raw material costs is leading to strong year-over-year margin expansion for some integrated products.
The rapid return of demand following the initial pandemic-related shutdown of the economy was evident as chemical volumes picked up markedly in the second half of 2020.
The trend continued into the first quarter, although volumes took a hit from Winter Storm Uri in February, which knocked many producers in the US Gulf offline.
“Triggered by rebounding demand and outages, most commodity chemical prices in Q1 '21 were up year-over-year,” Ahmed said, noting that contract polyethylene prices rose 50.8% year on year while contract ethylene prices advanced 68.9% year on year.
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