據(jù)4月19日Rigzone消息：Rystad Energy透露，其最新預(yù)測(cè)顯示，2021年石油需求將同比增長(zhǎng)6%。
該公司預(yù)計(jì)今年的平均需求將從去年的8960萬(wàn)桶/天升至9540萬(wàn)桶/天。4月的需求預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到9300萬(wàn)桶/天，5月預(yù)計(jì)為9400萬(wàn)桶/天，6月預(yù)計(jì)為9580萬(wàn)桶/天。
第三季度的石油總需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為9680萬(wàn)桶/天，第四季度將升至9830萬(wàn)桶/天。 展望2022年，預(yù)計(jì)明年的石油總需求將繼續(xù)上升，達(dá)到約9940萬(wàn)桶/天。
Rystad認(rèn)為，今年全球公路燃料總需求將增長(zhǎng)9%，達(dá)到4510萬(wàn)桶/天。4月份，全球道路燃料需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為4420萬(wàn)桶/天，隨后在5月和6月分別升至4490萬(wàn)桶/天和4590萬(wàn)桶/天。預(yù)計(jì)第三季度道路燃料需求平均為4620萬(wàn)桶/天，第四季度為4650萬(wàn)桶/天。Rystad預(yù)測(cè)，到2022年，公路燃料需求將達(dá)到4750萬(wàn)桶/天。
Rystad預(yù)計(jì)，受疫情影響最嚴(yán)重的航空燃油需求今年將增長(zhǎng)21%，平均為390萬(wàn)桶/天。然而，該公司指出，這仍然與疫情前水平相距甚遠(yuǎn)。大部分復(fù)蘇預(yù)計(jì)將在2022年進(jìn)行，屆時(shí)航空燃料需求平均為540萬(wàn)桶/天。
馮娟 摘譯自 Rigzone
原文如下：
Oil Demand Predicted to Jump 6 Percent in 2021
Rystad Energy has revealed that its latest forecast projects a six percent year on year increase in oil demand in 2021.
The company sees demand rising to an average of 95.4 million barrels per day (MMbpd) this year, from 89.6MMbpd in 2020. April 2021 demand is expected to hit 93 MMbpd, with 94 MMbpd projected in May and 95.8 MMbpd forecasted for June.
Total oil demand in the third quarter is expected to average 96.8 MMbpd before rising to 98.3 MMbpd in the fourth quarter. Looking further ahead to 2022, Rystad said its estimates show that total oil demand next year will continue to rise, reaching about 99.4 MMbpd.
Rystad believes that total global demand for road fuels will rise by nine percent this year to 45.1 MMbpd. In April, road fuel demand is expected to average 44.2 MMbpd globally, before rising to 44.9 MMbpd in May and 45.9 MMbpd in June. Road fuel demand is expected to average 46.2 MMbpd in the third quarter and 46.5 MMbpd in the fourth quarter. In 2022, Rystad forecasts that road fuel demand will hit 47.5 MMbpd.
Rystad expects jet fuel demand, which it says has been hit the hardest by the pandemic, to rise 21 percent this year and average 3.9 MMbpd. The company noted however that this is still “a far cry from pre-pandemic levels”. Most of the recovery is expected during 2022, when Rystad anticipates jet fuel demand to average 5.4 MMbpd.
The latest oil demand projections released by Rystad are part of the company’s monthly Covid-19 report, which calculates the effect of the pandemic and offers updated estimates for global energy markets. By monitoring recent developments, travel restrictions, quarantine obligations, and new government policies, Rystad says it is able to make frequent fact-based updates to its estimates.
As of April 18, 2.35pm CEST, there have been 140.3 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 globally, with three million deaths, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization (WHO). There have been 792.7 million vaccination doses administered worldwide, as of April 19, the latest WHO figures show.
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