據(jù)國(guó)際商業(yè)時(shí)報(bào)4月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際能源署（IEA）周三表示，隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)始從新冠肺炎疫情中復(fù)蘇，加上歐佩克及其盟友限制產(chǎn)量，全球石油市場(chǎng)的供應(yīng)過(guò)剩狀況正在緩解。
國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)上調(diào)了今年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期后，IEA也上調(diào)了對(duì)石油需求復(fù)蘇的預(yù)期。并表示:“市場(chǎng)前景的改善，加上更強(qiáng)勁的即時(shí)指標(biāo)，促使我們上調(diào)了2021年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期。”
IEA預(yù)計(jì)，繼去年下降870萬(wàn)桶/天之后，全球石油需求將增加570萬(wàn)桶/天，至9670萬(wàn)桶/天。歐佩克于周二，將2021年的需求預(yù)期上調(diào)至每日9650萬(wàn)桶。
去年，由于許多國(guó)家為了減緩疫情的傳播而關(guān)閉了大量經(jīng)濟(jì)，石油需求受到重創(chuàng)。這導(dǎo)致了供應(yīng)過(guò)剩，但包括重量級(jí)產(chǎn)油國(guó)俄羅斯在內(nèi)的歐佩克+國(guó)家選擇大幅減產(chǎn)，以應(yīng)對(duì)油價(jià)下跌。要知道，油價(jià)曾一度暴跌至負(fù)值。
不過(guò)，這種供過(guò)于求的局面似乎已經(jīng)改變。
IEA表示，初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，經(jīng)合組織石油庫(kù)存在連續(xù)7個(gè)月下降后，3月份基本保持穩(wěn)定，正接近5年平均水平。
自今年初以來(lái)，歐佩克+一直在緩慢增加產(chǎn)量，并在4月初表示，面對(duì)預(yù)期的需求增長(zhǎng)，它將在未來(lái)三個(gè)月將產(chǎn)量提高逾200萬(wàn)桶/天。
雖然第一季度的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)有些令人失望，因?yàn)樵S多歐洲和幾個(gè)主要新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的疫情再次抬頭，但隨著疫苗接種運(yùn)動(dòng)開(kāi)始產(chǎn)生影響，全球需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將加快。
IEA認(rèn)為，全球石油市場(chǎng)在今年下半年將發(fā)生巨大變化，可能需要增加近200萬(wàn)桶/天的供應(yīng)，才能滿足預(yù)期的需求增長(zhǎng)。但由于歐佩克+仍有大量的額外產(chǎn)能可以恢復(fù)，IEA并不認(rèn)為供應(yīng)緊張會(huì)進(jìn)一步加劇。
該組織表示:“歐元區(qū)每月對(duì)供應(yīng)量的校準(zhǔn)可能使其石油供應(yīng)具備靈活性，以滿足不斷增長(zhǎng)的需求。若未能及時(shí)跟上需求復(fù)蘇步伐，可迅速增加供應(yīng)，或下調(diào)產(chǎn)出。”
王佳晶 摘譯自 國(guó)際商業(yè)時(shí)報(bào)
原文如下：
IEA: Goodbye Oil Glut Thanks To OPEC+ And Recovery
A glut in global oil markets is being worked off as the world economy begins to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic and as OPEC and its allies restrain production, the IEA said Wednesday.
The International Energy Agency raised its expectations for the recovery in oil demand after the International Monetary Fund increased its forecasts for global growth this year.
"This improved outlook, along with stronger prompt indicators, has led us to revise up our 2021 global oil demand growth forecast," said the Paris-based body with advised oil consuming nations.
It now expects world oil demand to rise by 5.7 million barrels per day (mbd) to 96.7 mbd, following last year's drop of 8.7 mbd.
The OPEC oil cartel on Tuesday also raised its 2021 demand forecast to 96.5 mbd.
Oil demand was hammered last year as many countries shut down swathes of their economies in a bid to slow the spread of Covid-19.
That caused a glut in supplies, but the so-called OPEC+ group that includes heavyweight producer Russia, sharply cut output last year to reduce that and counter the plunge in prices that briefly saw some turn negative as storage ran short.
That glut appears to have been largely worked off.
The IEA said preliminary data suggest that OECD oil stocks held largely steady in March, following seven consecutive months of draws, and were heading close to their five-year average.
OPEC+ has been slowly increasing output since the beginning of the year and at the beginning of April signalled it would lift output by more than 2 mbd in the coming three months in the face of an expected rise in demand.
While the first quarter was somewhat disappointing as many European and several major emerging economies saw a resurgence of Covid-19, global growth is expected to pick up as vaccination campaigns begin to have an impact.
IEA sees the global oil market changing "dramatically in the latter half of this year as nearly 2 mbd of extra supply may be required to meet expected demand growth."
But with OPEC+ still having plenty of additional production capacity that it can bring back on line, the IEA does not see a supply crunch developing.
"The bloc's monthly calibration of supply may give it the flexibility to meet incremental demand by ramping up swiftly or adjusting output lower should the demand recovery fail to keep pace," it said.
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