據(jù)路透社4月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，但投資者們?cè)诿鎸?duì)印度等國(guó)新冠肺炎病例激增的問(wèn)題上存在分歧，不少人押注美國(guó)和其他發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，因此，雖然油價(jià)下跌，但周四，全球股市上漲。
隨著疫苗接種率上升，以及對(duì)疫情感到疲倦的民眾接受用更大的自由行動(dòng)來(lái)推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)，摩根士丹利資本國(guó)際(MSCI)最廣泛的全球股指上漲0.3%，在近期小幅下跌后，距離歷史收盤(pán)高位不到1%。
Amundi首席投資長(zhǎng)Pascal Blanque在給客戶(hù)的報(bào)告中稱(chēng)："夏季財(cái)報(bào)季將進(jìn)一步測(cè)試復(fù)蘇的走勢(shì)，但在那之前，疫苗的推出和經(jīng)濟(jì)的重新開(kāi)放將是本輪牛市進(jìn)一步上揚(yáng)的主要誘因。"
隨著歐洲央行(ecb)召開(kāi)政策會(huì)議，歐洲主要股指上漲。斯托克歐洲600指數(shù)上漲0.5%，雀巢(Nestle)和沃爾沃(Volvo)的樂(lè)觀業(yè)績(jī)也提振了該指數(shù)。
法國(guó)興業(yè)銀行(Societe General)交叉資產(chǎn)策略師Alain Bokobza在給客戶(hù)的報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道:“市場(chǎng)目前處于新冠肺炎疫情卷土重來(lái)、疫苗接種率快速提升和經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的十字路口。我們的整體立場(chǎng)沒(méi)有改變，也就是說(shuō)，當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)還沒(méi)有恢復(fù)繁榮狀態(tài)。信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍在控制之中，因此風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)應(yīng)會(huì)繼續(xù)走高……現(xiàn)在就堅(jiān)持冒險(xiǎn)吧。”
在歐洲股市開(kāi)盤(pán)走高之前，亞洲股市連夜上漲，日本日經(jīng)225指數(shù)上漲2.4%，摩根士丹利資本國(guó)際除日本外亞太地區(qū)股指上漲0.3%。美國(guó)股市期貨開(kāi)盤(pán)小幅走低，下跌0.1%，盡管距離歷史高點(diǎn)僅咫尺之遙。
盡管股市普遍樂(lè)觀，但在印度和日本新冠肺炎疫情卷土重來(lái)、美國(guó)股市近期意外上漲后，另一項(xiàng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期相關(guān)的資產(chǎn)——石油價(jià)格下跌，打壓了市場(chǎng)人氣。
美國(guó)原油期貨價(jià)格下跌0.5%，至每桶61.04美元，歐洲基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油價(jià)格下跌0.6%，至每桶64.95美元。
樂(lè)天證券商品分析師Satoru Yoshida表示："美國(guó)庫(kù)存意外大幅增加，引發(fā)市場(chǎng)對(duì)需求疲弱的擔(dān)憂(yōu)，這與需求強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇的預(yù)期相反。影響市場(chǎng)人氣的還有新冠肺炎疫情再次在印度和日本快速蔓延的事實(shí)。”
美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率依然低迷，但脫離盤(pán)中低點(diǎn)，基準(zhǔn)10年期國(guó)債收益率周四報(bào)1.564%。作為歐元區(qū)基準(zhǔn)的德國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率也有所下降，最后持平于-0.26%。
在外匯市場(chǎng)，美元兌一籃子主要貨幣最后持平。歐元兌美元上漲0.1%，至1.205美元，距離3月3日以來(lái)的最高匯率不遠(yuǎn)。自4月初以來(lái)，歐元兌美元升值幅度高達(dá)3%。
盡管歐洲央行會(huì)議對(duì)歐元影響不大，預(yù)計(jì)不會(huì)有任何變化，但交易商將關(guān)注有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的積極言論，以及可能縮減購(gòu)債規(guī)模的任何跡象。
Spreadex金融分析師康納?坎貝爾表示:“歐洲央行預(yù)計(jì)不會(huì)做出任何舉動(dòng)，分析師預(yù)計(jì)拉加德(Christine Lagarde)將繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)定。但在下次會(huì)議之前，歐洲央行可以利用這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)加強(qiáng)其前瞻性的指導(dǎo)。鴿派中也潛伏著鷹派，這意味著這次會(huì)議可能不會(huì)像預(yù)期的那樣順利。”
王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社
原文如下：
Global stocks eye new high on growth hopes, oil ebbs on COVID-19 fears
Global stocks ground higher while oil ebbed on Thursday as investors diverged over whether to bet on economic recovery in the United States and other developed markets or worry about a surge in COVID-19 cases in India and elsewhere.
With vaccination rates rising and pandemic-weary citizens embracing more freedoms to drive growth in some major economies, MSCI’s broadest global gauge of stocks was up 0.3%, trading within 1% of its all-time closing high after a recent mini sell-off.
“The summer earnings season will further test the trajectory of the recovery, but until then, vaccines rollout and economic reopening will be the main triggers for a further upside leg in this bull run,” Amundi Chief Investment Officer Pascal Blanque said in a note to clients.
With the European Central Bank holding a policy meeting, Europe’s top indexes posted stronger gains. The broad STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.5%, also bolstered by upbeat earnings from Nestle and Volvo.
“Markets are currently a tale of three Vs - standing at a crossroads of virus evolution, vaccination rates and v-shaped recoveries,” Societe General cross-asset strategist Alain Bokobza wrote in a note to clients.
“Our overall stance is unchanged, i.e., no exuberance yet. Credit risk remains under control, so risk assets should continue to ride high... Stick to risk for now.”
The buoyant start to the European day followed overnight gains in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.4% and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3%.
U.S. stock futures pointed to a marginally lower open on Wall Street, down 0.1% albeit within touching distance of a record high.
Despite stocks being generally upbeat, oil - another asset geared to perceptions of economic growth - fell after a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in India and Japan, and a recent surprise stock build in the United States, weighed on sentiment.
U.S. crude futures were down 0.5% at $61.04 per barrel while European benchmark Brent was down 0.6% at $64.95.
“An unexpected and high increase in U.S. inventories fuelled concerns over weak demand which came against expectations for a strong recovery in demand,” said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities.
“What is hurting market sentiment is also the fact that the COVID-19 pandemic is spreading again at a fast pace in India and Japan.”
U.S. Treasury yields stayed depressed but moved off intra-day lows, with the yield on benchmark 10-year notes at 1.5644% on Thursday.
Germany’s 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark of the euro area also dipped and was last trading flat at -0.26%.
In currency markets, the dollar last traded flat against a basket of major peers.
The euro was up 0.1% at $1.205, not far from its strongest since March 3. The common currency has gained as much as 3% against the dollar since the start of April.
While the euro is expected to be little moved by the ECB meeting, with no change expected, traders will be looking out for positive words about the state of the economy and any hints that its bond purchases could be tapered.
“The European Central Bank isn’t expected to ruffle any feathers this Thursday, with analysts predicting that it will be another steady session from Christine Lagarde and Co,” said Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex.
“But with a while until the next meeting – the central bank skips May – the ECB could use this opportunity to sharpen its forward guidance. There are also hawks lurking among the doves, meaning the get-together may not go as smoothly as forecast.”
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