據能源世界網5月12日倫敦報道， 國際能源署(IEA)周三表示，石油需求已經超過供應，疫苗接種提振全球經濟，石油缺口預計仍將擴大。

　　IEA在其月度報告中援引歐佩克+成員國增加石油供應的話稱,今年剩余時間的預期供應增長遠不及我們對第二季度之后需求大幅增長的預測。

　　IEA表示，石油輸出國組織(OPEC)及包括俄羅斯在內的盟國被稱作歐佩克+的組織，第二季石油日產量較需求低約15萬桶/天。

　　總部位于巴黎的監管機構表示，預計到年底，這一缺口將擴大至250萬桶/日。

　　自2017年以來，歐佩克+產油國一直在限制產量，但自去年實施創紀錄的減產以來，已經放松了產量，從本月起，各方同意進一步放松產量。

　　IEA表示，供需缺口擴大，為OPEC+進一步放松減產或更大幅度削減庫存鋪平了道路，并指出原油庫存在疫情期間飆升后，現已回落至近五年平均水平。在支撐油價的同時，將庫存降至5年平均水平是歐佩克+減產的目標之一。

　　OPEC+以外地區的供應恢復比IEA預期的要慢，因新冠疫情推遲了巴西和墨西哥灣的項目，并阻礙了加拿大的維護工作。雖然巴西、泰國甚至印度（全球第三大消費國感染病例破紀錄）的新一波感染并不足以扭轉這一趨勢，但可能繼續影響市場。印度的新冠疫情危機提醒人們，石油需求前景充滿不確定性。在疫情得到控制之前，市場波動可能會持續。

　　郝芬 譯自 能源世界網

　　原文如下：

　　IEA sees oil demand recovery outpacing growth in supply

　　Oil demand is already outstripping supply and the shortfall is expected to widen as vaccinations against COVID-19 bolster the global economy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

　　"The anticipated supply growth through the rest of this year comes nowhere close to matching our forecast for significantly stronger demand beyond the second quarter," the IEA said in its monthly report, citing increased pumping from OPEC+ countries.

　　Output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, the so-called OPEC+ group of producers, lagged demand by around by 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, IEA said.

　　That shortfall is expected to widen to a 2.5 million bpd by year's end, the Paris-based watchdog said.

　　OPEC+ producers have been curbing output since 2017 but have eased since imposing record high cuts last year, with more easing agreed from this month.

　　"The widening supply and demand gap paves the way for a further easing of OPEC+ supply cuts or even sharper stock draws," the IEA said, noting that storage of oil had ebbed to nearly the five-year-average after soaring amid the pandemic.

　　Getting inventories back down to the five-year average was, along with supporting prices, one of the aims of the OPEC+ cuts to begin with.

　　Supply recovery outside OPEC+ was recovering more slowly than the IEA expected as the virus delayed projects in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico and hampered maintenance in Canada.

　　While new waves of infections in Brazil and Thailand and even India - the world's third-largest consumer suffering record-breaking cases - were not enough to derail the trend but could continue to affect the market, it added.

　　"India's COVID crisis is a reminder that the outlook for oil demand is mired in uncertainty. Until the pandemic is brought under control, market volatility is likely to persist."

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