據6月3日CNBC報道，隨著需求回升，油價可能會在今年夏天暫時飆升至每桶80美元甚至更高的水平。

　　重新開放的經濟已經使原油價格自年初以來上漲了約40%，但美國出行人數的激增，以及貨物運輸和航空旅行的增加，可能會進一步支撐價格。

　　對消費者來說，這意味著初夏汽油價格的典型峰值可能會在夏季晚些時候出現。據美國汽車協會的數據，周三無鉛汽油平均價格為每加侖3.04美元，比上周高出約1美分，但較去年高出50%以上。

　　國際原油基準布倫特原油期貨價格周三收盤上漲1.6%，至每桶71.48美元，為2020年1月8日以來的最高水平。7月西德克薩斯中質原油期貨價格上漲1.6%，至每桶68.83美元，此前曾觸及每桶69.65美元的高點，為2018年10月23日以來的最高水平。

　　美國銀行(Bank of America)全球大宗商品和衍生品策略師弗朗西斯科?布蘭奇(Francisco Blanch)表示:“需求增長非常快，因為所有人都在開車，而歐洲市場正在重新開放，此外，印度似乎已經達到了一個拐點，在我看來，這可能意味著人口流動性的恢復。”

　　價格上漲存在不確定性

　　能源分析人士一致認為，油價將有一段時間會走高，但油價會走多高、會走多久沒有達成一致意見。布蘭奇稱，布蘭特原油已經達到了每桶70美元的季度目標價，其長期預期較為樂觀：“我們認為，在未來三年，油價可能會回升到每桶100美元，我們堅持這一點。不過，那將是一個2022年、2023年的故事。部分原因是歐佩克+掌握著所有的關鍵，而市場對供應方面的價格并不是特別敏感，還有很多被壓抑的需求……此外還有通貨膨脹。石油價格一直滯后于整個經濟上漲水平。”

　　歐佩克+正逐漸將石油重新投入市場，同意在6月份將日產量增加35萬桶，并從7月份開始再增加45萬桶。沙特阿拉伯還同意放棄今年年初實施的每日約100萬桶的額外減產計劃。

　　今年4月，歐佩克+同意在7月底之前將日產量增加200多萬桶。

　　美國石油工業目前的日產量約為1100萬桶，低于疫情爆發前的約1300萬桶。但分析人士指出，目前還不清楚美國公司恢復生產的速度有多快，也不清楚它們能否恢復生產。

　　布蘭奇表示:“由于資本約束，生產商對價格變化的敏感性有所下降。、在去年價格暴跌之后，企業面臨著需要謹慎使用資本的壓力。目前油價上漲，企業不愿投資。他們正在償還債務，增加股息。公司董事會也面臨著剝離油氣資產、到2050年實現凈零排放的壓力，這兩股主要力量阻礙能源領域的資本支出。"

　　經濟復蘇，需求上升

　　就目前而言，隨著全球經濟的反彈，石油產量并沒有跟上需求的增長。即使在歐佩克+周二承諾讓原油重返市場后，油價仍在繼續上漲。

　　IHS Markit副董事長丹尼爾·耶金(Daniel Yergin) 表示：“歡迎來到疫情后的世界，我們看到需求在迅速增長，每天增長700萬桶。布倫特原油價格今年有望達到平均每桶70美元。油價有可能漲到80美元，雖然這是不可思議的，這將開始影響需求，而且還會引發政治反應。”

　　根據Again Capital的John Kilduff的說法，看漲的需求和價格預測支撐了本周原油價格的上漲。他說，歐佩克預計，到今年年底，需求可能達到每天9,980萬桶，但供應預計將僅達到每天9,750萬桶。

　　ReagainCapital約翰基爾達夫（JohnKilduff）表示，看漲的需求和價格預期支撐了本周原油價格的上漲。他說，歐佩克預測，到今年年底，石油需求可能達到9980萬桶/天，但供應量預計僅為9750萬桶/天。

　　基爾達夫表示：“我預期油價上漲已經有一段時間了，預計布倫特原油價格將觸及每桶80美元，WTI原油價格將在每桶75美元至80美元之間交易。從長遠來看，關鍵是美國頁巖行業在多大程度上恢復活動并取得進展。”

　　花旗集團（Citigroup）分析師埃里克?李（Eric Lee）表示，他預計美國鉆井公司最終將恢復到之前的產量水平，但他確實注意到公司策略有所改變。私營企業的反應會很快，人們都非常謹慎。

　　歐佩克+目前沒有看到來自美國的威脅，它有足夠的閑置產能來抑制油價上漲，并在必要時增加供應。此前，價格上漲使得美國頁巖行業加大開采力度，進而推動價格下跌。

　　不過，目前并沒有看到美國生產商強勢回歸，從這些公司當前的表現來看，它們更愿意抑制產量。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 CNBC

　　原文如下：

　　It could be a hot summer ahead for oil prices

　　Oil prices could temporarily spike to $80 per barrel or more this summer as demand comes roaring back.

　　The reopening economy has already sent crude up about 40% since the start of the year, but a surge in driving by Americans, as well as an increase in goods transportation and air travel, could pressure prices further.

　　For consumers, that means the typical early summer peak in gasoline prices could come later in the season. Unleaded gasoline was $3.04 per gallon on average Wednesday, about a penny higher than last week but more than 50% higher than a year ago, according to AAA.

　　Brent futures, the international crude benchmark, settled up 1.6% at $71.48 per barrel Wednesday, the highest since Jan. 8, 2020. West Texas Intermediate futures for July were 1.6% higher at $68.83 per barrel, after hitting a high of $69.65, the highest since Oct. 23, 2018.

　　“Demand is ramping up very quickly because everybody’s driving, and we have the reopening of Europe, which is really starting to happen,” said Francisco Blanch, global commodities and derivatives strategist at Bank of America. “India seems to have hit an inflection point, in terms of cases, which in my mind could mean you also get a return of mobility.”

　　Uncertainty around higher prices

　　Energy analysts agree the world is in for a period of higher prices, but they do not agree how high or for how long. Blanch said Brent has already hit his $70 target for the quarter, but he has a much more bullish longer-term view than others.

　　“We think in the next three years we could see $100 barrels again, and we stand by that. That would be a 2022, 2023 story,” Blanch said. “Part of it is the fact we have OPEC kind of holding all the cards, and the market is not particularly price responsive on the supply side and there is a lot of pent-up demand ... We also have a lot of inflation everywhere. Oil has been lagging the rise in prices across the economy.”

　　Members of OPEC and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, are gradually returning oil to the market. They agreed to implement their previously planned production increase of 350,000 barrels a day in June and another 450,000 barrels a day starting in July. Saudi Arabia also agreed to step back from its own cuts of about a million barrels a day, which was put in place earlier in the year.

　　OPEC+ had agreed in April to increase output by more than 2 million barrels a day by the end of July.

　　The U.S. industry is producing about 11 million barrels a day, down from about 13 million before the pandemic. But analysts say it’s not clear how fast or whether U.S. companies will restore that production.

　　“The sensitivity of producers to price changes has declined because of capital discipline,” said Blanch. He said there is pressure on companies to be cautious in how they use capital after the collapse in prices last year.

　　“Right now we’re in a position where prices are rising, companies are reluctant to invest,” Blanch said. “They are paying down debt and increasing dividends.”

　　He said there is also pressure on corporate boards to divest hydrocarbon assets and to work toward net zero on carbon emissions by 2050. “You have two major forces hampering capex in the energy sector right now,” Blanch said.

　　Rising demand amid the recovery

　　For now, oil production has not kept up with demand, as global economies rebound. Even after OPEC+ committed Tuesday to return crude to the market, the price of oil continued to tick up.

　　“Welcome to the post-pandemic world,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. “We’re seeing demand is growing rapidly between the first quarter and the third quarter by 7 million barrels a day.”

　　Yergin said his Brent target is an average $70 per barrel this year.

　　Bullish demand and price forecasts have supported the gain in crude prices this week, according to John Kilduff of Again Capital. He said OPEC predicted that demand could reach 99.8 million barrels a day by the end of the year, but supply is expected to reach just 97.5 million barrels a day.

　　“I’ve been bullish for awhile now,” said Kilduff. He expects to see Brent hit $80 a barrel and WTI trade between $75 and $80. “The demand trends have been exploding ... The real throes of this I imagine will come as we get closer to Labor Day.”

　　Kilduff said the key to the longer-term view is how much the U.S. shale industry resumes its former activities and pushes ahead.

　　Citigroup analyst Eric Lee said he expects U.S. drillers to return to their prior levels of production ultimately, but he does note a change in attitude.

　　“If you split them up, the private companies have been responding quickly. The public independents and the majors have been a lot more cautious,” Lee said.

　　OPEC + does not currently see a threat from the U.S., and it has plenty of spare production capacity to curb higher prices and add supply if it needed to. Previously, higher prices would be an invitation for the U.S. shale industry to pump more, which could in turn drive prices down.

　　“They’re not seeing U.S. producers coming back very strongly at the moment, and I think they’re of the view that U.S. producers won’t come back strong,” he said. “In terms of how they’re behaving now, they’re not so worried about shale right now so they’re more willing to hold back production.”

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