據(jù)ICIS-MRC網(wǎng)站6月28日莫斯科報(bào)道，據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，受全球制造業(yè)和貨運(yùn)的強(qiáng)勁擴(kuò)張以及主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體逐漸重新開(kāi)放的推動(dòng)，全球石油消費(fèi)量將在2022年第一季度恢復(fù)到大流行前的水平。

　　礦工、制造商、航運(yùn)和卡車運(yùn)輸公司以及私人駕車的消費(fèi)量激增，預(yù)計(jì)將抵消客運(yùn)航空檢疫限制導(dǎo)致的航空燃油消耗量的持續(xù)減少。

　　根據(jù)美國(guó)能源信息署 (EIA) 的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，預(yù)計(jì)到 2022 年 3 月，全球液體燃料日消耗量（包括生物燃料）將達(dá)到1.006 億桶。

　　這將是自疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái)，消費(fèi)量首次超過(guò)2019年同期水平。

　　在2020年4月疫情最嚴(yán)重和封鎖最嚴(yán)重的時(shí)候，全球石油消費(fèi)量下降了近20%，即2000萬(wàn)桶/天之后，將在不到兩年的時(shí)間內(nèi)反彈。經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和石油消費(fèi)的顯著復(fù)蘇主要是由于歐洲和北美迅速部署了有效疫苗以及和亞洲其他地區(qū)實(shí)行了嚴(yán)格的檢疫控制措施。

　　在較富裕的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，超低利率、史無(wú)前例的政府支出以及對(duì)企業(yè)和家庭的慷慨支持，也幫助石油市場(chǎng)的復(fù)蘇速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)快于疫情最嚴(yán)重時(shí)的水平。

　　但在冠狀病毒爆發(fā)之前的五年中，全球消費(fèi)量以略高于 1% 或每年略高于100 萬(wàn)桶/天的年增長(zhǎng)率增長(zhǎng)。即使在預(yù)期的強(qiáng)勁反彈之后，預(yù)計(jì)到 2022 年底全球消費(fèi)量仍將比疫情前的趨勢(shì)低2% 以上或200 萬(wàn)桶/日。

　　郝芬 譯自 ICIS-MRC

　　原文如下：

　　Global crude oil consumption to return to pre-pandemic levels by Q1 2022

　　Global oil consumption is set to return to pre-pandemic levels by the first quarter of 2022, driven by a strong expansion in global manufacturing and freight transport as well as the gradual re-opening of major economies, reported Reuters.

　　Booming consumption from miners, manufacturers, shipping and trucking firms, as well as private motorists, is expected to offset the continued loss of jet fuel consumption from quarantine restrictions on passenger aviation.

　　Global liquids consumption (including biofuels) is forecast to reach 100.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

　　For the first time since the onset of the epidemic, consumption will surpass the level for the corresponding month in 2019.

　　Global consumption will have bounced back in less than two years, after falling by almost 20% or 20 million bpd at the worst point of the epidemic and lockdowns in April 2020. The remarkable recovery in economic activity and oil consumption is mostly the result of a rapid deployment of effective vaccines in Europe and North America and strict quarantine controls in other parts of Asia.

　　In wealthier economies, ultra-low interest rates, unprecedented government spending, and generous support for businesses and households have also helped heal the oil market far quicker than seemed likely at the height of the epidemic.

　　But in the five years before the coronavirus, global consumption was growing at an annual rate of just over 1% or a little over 1 million b/d per year. Even after the expected strong rebound, global consumption is still expected to be more than 2% or 2 million b/d below its pre-epidemic trend at the end of 2022.

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