據(jù)世界石油6月25日消息稱，全球石油市場要求大幅增加供應(yīng)，但預(yù)計歐佩克+只能提供消費者需求的一小部分。
隨著需求從疫情的低迷中反彈，國際原油價格飆升至每桶 75 美元以上的兩年高位隨著有關(guān)油價回歸每桶100美元的傳言和對 通脹的擔(dān)憂加劇，國際能源署敦促歐佩克及其合作伙伴填補供應(yīng)短缺。
彭博社的一項調(diào)查顯示，以沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯為首的聯(lián)盟在下周舉行會議時，人們普遍預(yù)計將恢復(fù)更多暫停的石油產(chǎn)量，該組織的代表表示，討論已經(jīng)在進行中。
然而，由于沙特政府決心謹慎行事，市場觀察人士預(yù)計，任何增加都會讓市場想要更多。
研究公司Enverus的主管Bill Farren-Price說：“這個市場很火。沙特似乎并不傾向于暗示大幅增加供應(yīng)。但即使歐佩克+增加了石油產(chǎn)量，油價也將保持強勁。”
歐佩克今年才逐漸恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)。
這個由23個國家組成的聯(lián)盟已恢復(fù)了約40%的日產(chǎn)量，該聯(lián)盟去年因需求暴跌而停產(chǎn)的日產(chǎn)量接近1000萬桶。各國部長將于7月 1日召開會議，評估下一步行動。
沙特阿拉伯能源部長Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman周三表示，他保持謹慎立場，但不排除采取行動的可能。他承認歐佩克+在 “馴服和遏制”通貨膨脹方面發(fā)揮著作用。
市場觀察人士普遍預(yù)計，隨著8月份額外供應(yīng)進入市場，下周將達成某種形式的上調(diào)。在彭博新聞社進行的一項全球調(diào)查中， 15名分析師、交易員和煉油商中，除了兩人以外，所有人都預(yù)計，該聯(lián)盟將利用其龐大的閑置產(chǎn)能。
然而，他們對8月原油日產(chǎn)量的平均預(yù)估增幅約為51萬桶，僅為歐佩克+當(dāng)月預(yù)估全球供應(yīng)缺口的四分之一。
朱佳妮 摘譯自 世界石油
原文如下：
OPEC’s output plans expected to leave oil markets wanting more
The global oil market is calling out for a substantial increase in supplies, but OPEC+ is expected to provide only a fraction of what consumers are demanding.
International crude prices have soared to a two-year high above $75 a barrel as demand bounces back from the pandemic slump. With talk swirling of a return to $100 oil and fears over inflation mounting, the International Energy Agency is urging the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners to fill a supply shortfall.
When it meets next week, the alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is widely expected to revive some more of its halted output, according to a Bloomberg survey, and delegates from the group say discussions are already underway.
Yet with Riyadh determined to proceed cautiously, market watchers expect any increase to leave the market wanting more.
“This market’s on fire,” said Bill Farren-Price, a director at research firm Enverus. “The Saudis don’t seem inclined to signal a substantial increase in supplies. But even if OPEC+ adds barrels, prices are going to stay strong.”
OPEC has only gradually revived production this year.
The 23-nation alliance has restored roughly 40% of the almost 10 million barrels of daily production it shuttered when demand collapsed last year. Ministers will gather on July 1 to assess the next step.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Wednesday that he maintains a cautious stance, but doesn’t rule out action. He acknowledged that OPEC+ has a role in “taming and containing” inflation.
Market observers widely expect that a hike of some kind will be agreed next week, with the extra supply hitting the market in August. All but two of 15 analysts, traders and refiners in a global survey by Bloomberg News predicted that the coalition will tap its sizable spare production capacity.
Yet the average increase they forecast for August was about 510,000 barrels a day -- barely a quarter of the global supply deficit that OPEC+ itself anticipates during that month.?
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