據(jù)鉆機(jī)網(wǎng)6月25日消息稱，在7月1日舉行的OPEC+政策會(huì)議之前的兩周，石油市場(chǎng)將非常緊張。

　　這是雷斯塔能源公司的石油市場(chǎng)分析師Louise Dickson在周四發(fā)給Rigzone的評(píng)論中說(shuō)的。雷斯塔代表在評(píng)論中指出，OPEC+預(yù)計(jì)將放松供應(yīng)，要么正式提高產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)，要么非正式地減少減產(chǎn)目標(biāo)。

　　Dickson在評(píng)論中表示："如果OPEC+希望保持市場(chǎng)在理論上的平衡，該組織可能會(huì)在2021年8月將日產(chǎn)量提高至3950萬(wàn)桶，但隨后需要在10月份的平衡需求季節(jié)將其縮減至3680萬(wàn)桶。

　　這位石油市場(chǎng)分析師補(bǔ)充稱："這確實(shí)是OPEC+希望避免的供應(yīng)波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，尤其是一旦各國(guó)被允許增加產(chǎn)量，就更難后退，再次收緊供應(yīng)。"

　　Dickson在評(píng)論中強(qiáng)調(diào)，雷斯塔認(rèn)為OPEC+的供應(yīng)可能會(huì)增加。

　　Dickson說(shuō)："雖然從理論上講，OPEC+在8月份可能實(shí)現(xiàn)近300萬(wàn)桶的日升幅，而且市場(chǎng)很可能在不破壞價(jià)格完整性的情況下消化這些產(chǎn)量，但我們認(rèn)為，如果歐佩克繼續(xù)保持謹(jǐn)慎的態(tài)度，隨著石油日產(chǎn)量每月50萬(wàn)桶的增長(zhǎng)，其日增長(zhǎng)量可能會(huì)更加保守，達(dá)到100萬(wàn)桶/日。

　　Dickson表示，市場(chǎng)可以預(yù)期，8月份煉廠產(chǎn)量將穩(wěn)步上升，這將導(dǎo)致每日隱含庫(kù)存減少160萬(wàn)桶，然后在10月份進(jìn)行季節(jié)性增加，達(dá)到每日100萬(wàn)桶的峰值。

　　截至發(fā)稿時(shí)，布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶75.39美元去年這個(gè)時(shí)候，布倫特原油價(jià)格維持在每桶41美元左右。

　　朱佳妮 摘譯自 鉆機(jī)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Next 2 Weeks Will Be Extraordinarily Tight for Oil

　　The next two weeks ahead of the OPEC+ policy meeting on July 1 will be extraordinarily tight for the oil market.

　　That’s according to Rystad Energy’s oil markets analyst Louise Dickson, who made the statement in a comment sent to Rigzone on Thursday. In the comment, the Rystad representative noted that OPEC+ is expected to loosen supply, either officially with a higher production target or unofficially with compliance slippage.

　　“If OPEC+ wants to keep the market in a theoretical equilibrium, the group could boost production as high as 39.5 million bpd in August 2021, but then needs to scale it down back to 36.8 million bpd for October during the shoulder demand season,” Dickson said in the comment.

　　“This would indeed be a supply swing risk that OPEC+ would want to avoid, especially as once countries are allowed to increase production, it is harder to back-step and again tighten supply,” the oil markets analyst went added.

　　Dickson highlighted in the comment that Rystad sees a conservative supply boost on the cards for OPEC+.

　　“While OPEC+ could theoretically go for a nearly three million bpd boost in August and the market could most likely absorb these volumes without destroying price integrity, we see a more conservative one million bpd boost in the cards with a monthly 500,000 bpd ramp up should OPEC+ continue its chorus of caution,” Dickson said.

　　The market can expect a steady rise in refinery runs through August, which will result in a 1.6 million bpd implied stock draw, then seasonal builds, peaking at one million bpd, are expected to follow in October, according to Dickson.

　　At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude stood at $75.39 per barrel. This time last year, the price of Brent stood at around $41 per barrel.?

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