據(jù)7月7日彭博社報(bào)道，近一周的正式和非正式談判以及幕后談判未能解決關(guān)于歐佩克+基準(zhǔn)產(chǎn)量水平的爭(zhēng)議，這一分歧使歐佩克陷入了自2020年3月以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的危機(jī)。要知道，當(dāng)時(shí)全球需求在疫情中大幅下降的情況，而歐佩克領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯在石油供應(yīng)管理問(wèn)題上出現(xiàn)了分歧。
現(xiàn)在，這一爭(zhēng)端發(fā)生在歐佩克的兩個(gè)阿拉伯海灣盟國(guó)——阿聯(lián)酋和沙特阿拉伯之間。分析人士認(rèn)為，阿聯(lián)酋正尋求走出沙特在全球政治事務(wù)中的影響范圍。
阿聯(lián)酋堅(jiān)持自己的立場(chǎng)，要知道，如果歐佩克+承認(rèn)阿聯(lián)酋的減產(chǎn)基準(zhǔn)太低且“不公平”，它就會(huì)批準(zhǔn)增加市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)。
但是，歐佩克+連續(xù)五天未能克服分歧，這讓人們想起了去年的油價(jià)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，當(dāng)時(shí)該聯(lián)盟在一個(gè)月內(nèi)放棄了所有協(xié)議。交易員和分析師發(fā)出一連串的疑問(wèn)，如這場(chǎng)糾紛是否會(huì)再次導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)協(xié)議消散?由于美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣產(chǎn)量保持平穩(wěn)，且沒(méi)有破壞歐佩克為保持市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)緊張所做的努力，歐佩克在石油市場(chǎng)管理方面的堅(jiān)定控制力會(huì)因此下滑嗎?
三次協(xié)商失敗，局勢(shì)堪憂(yōu)。
盡管上周末進(jìn)行了調(diào)解、磋商和邊談，在兩天都沒(méi)有達(dá)成一致意見(jiàn)后，歐佩克+周一第三次協(xié)商失敗，取消了歐佩克+會(huì)議，并表示尚未決定下次會(huì)議召開(kāi)的時(shí)間。
由于沒(méi)有達(dá)成在8月增產(chǎn)的協(xié)議，歐佩克+目前可能將維持與7月份持平的供應(yīng)。考慮到全球石油需求正在反彈，市場(chǎng)最初預(yù)計(jì)8月份該聯(lián)盟的產(chǎn)量至少會(huì)增加50萬(wàn)桶/天，但現(xiàn)實(shí)讓油價(jià)隨即躍升至三年來(lái)的最高水平。
Vanda Insights表示：" 市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始考慮歐佩克+不會(huì)在8月再增加供應(yīng)的可能。”
每桶90美元的油價(jià)?在庫(kù)存減少、需求回升的情況下，沒(méi)有額外的供應(yīng)，可能會(huì)在短期內(nèi)推高油價(jià)，至少在歐佩克+達(dá)成某種協(xié)議之前會(huì)這樣。
行業(yè)咨詢(xún)公司FGE董事長(zhǎng)Fereidun Fesharaki表示，如果歐佩克+下個(gè)月不增加供應(yīng)，油價(jià)可能會(huì)跌至每桶85 - 90美元。Fesharaki預(yù)計(jì)，歐佩克將在未來(lái)一到三周內(nèi)達(dá)成某種妥協(xié)，在此期間油價(jià)將繼續(xù)上漲。
Energy Aspects研究總監(jiān)Amrita Sen對(duì)彭博社表示:“8月份現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)異常緊張，沒(méi)有額外的石油供應(yīng)，很容易導(dǎo)致油價(jià)超過(guò)每桶90美元。”
會(huì)爆發(fā)新一輪的價(jià)格戰(zhàn)?
阿聯(lián)酋和歐佩克+之間的分歧似乎比最初設(shè)想的更大，此前，歐佩克+召開(kāi)第一次會(huì)議，未能就未來(lái)的石油政策達(dá)成共識(shí)。但至少就目前而言，很少有分析人士認(rèn)為，從2020年春季開(kāi)始，短暫的石油價(jià)格戰(zhàn)將重演，要知道，當(dāng)時(shí)歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)隨意產(chǎn)油，并促成油價(jià)暴跌，且油價(jià)暴跌的影響仍在大多數(shù)歐佩克+經(jīng)濟(jì)體中顯現(xiàn)。
瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)在一份報(bào)告中表示，目前8月份增加供應(yīng)的僵局有可能在短期內(nèi)將布倫特原油(Brent Crude)價(jià)格推高至每桶80美元。周二早間，布倫特原油交易價(jià)高于每桶77美元，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油交易價(jià)高于每桶76美元。
瑞士信貸分析師表示:“如果沙特和阿聯(lián)酋無(wú)法解決彼此的分歧，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致雙方各執(zhí)一詞，重新陷入價(jià)格戰(zhàn)，這對(duì)能源投資者來(lái)說(shuō)是一種嚴(yán)峻的局面。”
歐佩克+面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比配額基準(zhǔn)大得多。
但是，能源基金的首席投資官們表示，這種“嚴(yán)酷的情況”是目前僵局最不可能出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果之一。加拿大一家能源基金的首席投資官表示:“在產(chǎn)量大幅增加的情況下，出現(xiàn)破壞性崩潰的可能性很低，這種情況不會(huì)發(fā)生。”一位駐倫敦的首席投資官表示：“我們認(rèn)為印度和歐洲需求強(qiáng)勁，存在實(shí)際供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，浪費(fèi)這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)不符合歐佩克的利益，油價(jià)有望在未來(lái)六個(gè)月升至每桶90 - 100美元。”
因此,投資機(jī)構(gòu)并不認(rèn)為因此。因?yàn)樵谝荒甓嗟臅r(shí)間里，歐佩克努力表明自己在石油市場(chǎng)的低位，如果歐佩克想要再次成為主要的石油市場(chǎng)推動(dòng)者，那么談判破裂是非常不明智的。目前不可能出現(xiàn)破壞價(jià)格的“不交易”行為，要知道，如今歐佩克+在市場(chǎng)上擁有幾十年來(lái)最強(qiáng)的影響力，它們不會(huì)放棄這一切。”
王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社
原文如下：
OPEC Stalemate Could Spark A New Oil Price War
Nearly a week of formal and side talks and behind-the-scenes negotiations failed to resolve a dispute over baseline production levels at OPEC+. The discord threw the group in its most serious crisis since March 2020, when the alliance’s leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia disagreed on oil supply management with global demand crumbling in the pandemic.
Now the dispute is between two Arab Gulf allies in OPEC—the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—in what analysts see as the UAE looking to step out of the Saudi shadow in global political affairs.
The UAE is digging in its heels, making its approval of OPEC+ adding more supply to the market contingent on the group acknowledging that the UAE’s baseline for the cuts was too low and “unfair.”
The disagreement, which OPEC+ has been unable to overcome for five consecutive days, is bringing back the specter of last year’s oil price war when the alliance abandoned all deals for a month. Traders and analysts have already started to ask themselves: is this the dispute that will dissolve the production pact again? And will OPEC+ let its firm grip on oil market management slip, after being in such a favorable position this year with U.S. shale keeping production flat and not unraveling the alliance’s efforts to keep markets tight?
Third Time’s Not a Charm
Despite mediation, consultations, and side talks in the weekend – after two days of ‘no deal’ outcome of meetings – OPEC+ failed a third time on Monday, called off the OPEC+ meeting, and said it hadn’t decided yet when the next meeting would be held.
The lack of agreement overproduction for next month likely means that OPEC+ will keep, for now, their production in August flat compared with July. This immediately sent oil prices jumping to the highest in three years, considering that global oil demand is bouncing back and the market was initially expecting at least a 500,000-bpd increase from the alliance in August.
“The market began factoring in the prospect of no additional supply hike from the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance in August,” Vanda Insights said in a daily note on Tuesday.
$90 Oil? No additional supply at a time when inventories are drawing down and demand is roaring back will likely send oil prices higher in the near term, at least until the group reaches some sort of a deal.
Oil at $85 to $90 a barrel is on the cards if OPEC+ doesn’t raise supply next month, Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of industry consultant FGE, told Bloomberg TV in an interview. Fesharaki expects the group to reach some sort of compromise over the next one to three weeks, during which oil prices will continue to rise.
“No additional oil in August, at a time when the physical market is incredibly tight, can easily lead to prices overshooting above US$90 a barrel,” Amrita Sen, Director of Research at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg.
New Price War?
The UAE-OPEC+ rift, however, now appears wider than initially thought on Thursday last week, when the first OPEC+ meeting failed to reach a consensus on oil policy going forward.
But at least for now, few analysts believe that there will be a repeat of the brief oil price war from the spring of 2020, when the OPEC+ producers pumped at will for a month and contributed to the crash in oil prices, the effects of which are still being felt in most OPEC+ economies.
Credit Suisse, in a note late on Monday, said the current impasse about raising supply in August had the ability to push Brent Crude to $80 a barrel in the near term. Early on Tuesday, Brent was trading above $77 and WTI was up above $76 a barrel.
“If Saudi and UAE are unable to resolve their differences, then it could lead to each man for himself approach and back to price wars, which is a draconian scenario for energy investors,” Credit Suisse analysts said.
OPEC+ Has Much More at Stake Than Quota baselines
This ‘draconian scenario’, however, is one of the most unlikely outcomes of the current deadlock, according to chief investment officers of energy funds who joined a live chat on Bloomberg on Monday with Lawrence McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report.
“[T]here is a low probability of a destructive breakdown with a large boost in production, that’s not happening,” an energy fund CIO in Canada said.
“We see strong demand (India, Europe) with real supply risk, it is not in OPEC’s interest to blow this opportunity,” a CIO in London said, noting that oil has a shot at $90 to $100 a barrel in the next six months.
Institutional investors, therefore, don’t see the OPEC+ pact breaking up, as it would be very unwise for the alliance to be sidelined as the key oil market mover again, after working for more than a year to show it is calling the shots (and burning the shorts) in the oil market.
“We do not believe that a price-destructive “non-deal” is in the cards at this time. This is the strongest period OPEC+ has had in the market in decades and they don’t want to give that all up,” The Bear Traps Report’s McDonald notes.
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