據油價網2021年7月5日報道，Anda Insights創始人兼首席執行官、能源分析師Vandana Hari最近在接受CNBC采訪時表示，石油市場參與者可能過于關注美國各州重新開放后飆升的燃料需求，他們可能忽視了疫情對其他地區需求的潛在威脅。
這位分析師說，市場可能過于關注來自美國的看漲需求消息，因此過于超前。
哈里在接受CNBC采訪時表示，美國需求的反彈“也讓人們對未來的預期略有不同，更加樂觀。”
哈里補充說：“這可能過于樂觀，但這是市場正在考慮的因素。”
這位分析師認為，今年夏天油價可能會維持在每桶70-75美元區間。 這不如高盛銀行等投資銀行的樂觀看法。后者認為，隨著石油需求迅速復蘇，今年夏天的油價將達到80美元。
美國銀行全球研究6月份曾表示，對未來幾個月強勁需求復蘇速度將超過供應的預期，可能導致油價在2022年短暫觸及每桶100美元。
近幾周市場上的樂觀情緒，也導致全球最大的大宗商品交易商不排除油價升至每桶100美元的可能性。 盡管維多首席執行官Russell Hardy警告過度樂觀的多頭，稱“我們目前處于一個略微人為的市場中”，但多數高管認為油價每桶100美元“當然是有可能的”。
與今年相比，對油價100美元的預測似乎在未來幾年更為普遍，原因是預計將出現供應短缺，尤其是在2025年左右，在新供應方面的投資較低，而全球石油需求仍在增長。
嘉能可石油營銷主管亞歷克斯?薩納6月在英國《金融時報》大宗商品全球峰會上表示：“如果你在削減供應的同時無法解決需求問題，就會出現價格混亂。”他補充稱，目前看來油價達到每桶100美元的可能性比以前更大。”
薩納稱，“我們離油價的實質性飆升只有一兩個事件的距離。”
李峻 編譯自 油價網
原文如下：
Analyst Says Market Too Optimistic about Demand
Oil market participants may have focused too much on the surging U.S. fuel demand with states re-opening, possibly ignoring the still lurking COVID threats to demand elsewhere, energy analyst Vandana Hari, founder and chief executive officer of Vanda Insights, told CNBC in a recent interview.
The market may be getting ahead of itself because it’s too focused on the bullish demand news out of the United States, according to the analyst.
The demand rebound in America “has also set expectations on a slightly different, more optimistic path,” Hari told CNBC.
“It may be too optimistic, but that’s what the market is factoring in,” she added.
According to the analyst, oil prices would likely remain in the $70-75 a barrel range in the summer. That’s less bullish than the calls of investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, which sees $80 oil this summer amid quickly recovering oil demand.
Expectations that strong demand recovery would outpace supply in coming months could lead to oil prices briefly hitting $100 per barrel in 2022, BofA Global Research said last month.
The bullish sentiment on the market in recent weeks has also resulted in the world’s largest commodity traders not ruling out the possibility of $100 oil. Most of the top executives see oil prices “higher from here” for the rest of the year, although Vitol’s CEO Russell Hardy, warned the overenthusiastic bulls that “we’re in a slightly artificial market at the moment,” when saying that $100 per barrel oil is “of course a possibility.”
Predictions of $100 oil seem to be more common for the coming years, rather than this year, due to an expected supply deficit, especially around 2025, amid low investments in new supply and still growing global oil demand.
“If you’re cutting supply without at the same time addressing your demand that is when you can get price dislocations,” Glencore’s Head of Oil Marketing, Alex Sanna, told the FT Commodities Global Summit last month, adding that $100 oil was now looking more likely than before.
“You’re really only one or two events away from a material spike in oil prices,” Sanna said.
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