據鉆機地帶7月27日專欄消息，達拉斯一家私營油氣運營商的負責人上周告知我們，世界兩大主要油價基準忽略了一些重要因素。

　　King Operation Corp 創始人兼首席執行官 Jay Young 表示：“最近沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋的協議使歐佩克和歐佩克+組織將供應列為討論的重心，每天 40萬桶恢復供應的短期影響并不大，不會在短期內影響定價的因素。市場正在聽取不同專家的意見，他們使用不同的指標得出不同的結果?！?/p>

　　Young表示，即使新冠Delta變體出現，石油需求仍將繼續上升。然而，他認為，在其他大宗商品定價方法中經常被忽視的兩個關鍵問題需要計算到布倫特和西德克薩斯中質原油基準中:

　　隨著能源市場變得“更環?！?，化石燃料使用量增加

　　美國頁巖油公司缺乏資金。

　　對于綠色能源市場導致化石燃料消耗增加的問題，Young斷言，石油和天然氣需求既沒有見頂，也不會很快見頂。

　　Young表示：“主要石油公司逃離市場只會推高價格，而不會減少需求。”

　　他以煤炭市場的動態為例。

　　Young表示：“印度和其他國家的煤炭使用量大幅上升，并有望保持這一趨勢。另一方面，加州的煤炭使用量并沒有減少，需求持平。這怎么可能?水泥和瀝青只是繼續使用化石燃料的兩個罪魁禍首。沒有化石燃料，就不可能有新的建筑。還有許多其他因素，我們很快就會公布這些數據。加州也是全美最高的千瓦時(計費單位消費者)，但沒有減少消費?！?/p>

　　他指出，公司的研究團隊也在研究電動汽車(EV)的數量，他認為，考慮到電動汽車的總成本，削弱了其對內燃機汽車的吸引力。

　　Young表示：“我們看到數據顯示，沒有足夠的稀土礦物來生產汽車所需的電池。世界人口已經習慣了‘隨心所欲的交通工具’?！叭绻妱悠嚨膬r格包括充電和更換電池的成本，這將不會改變他們目前的行為模式?！?/p>

　　在談到美國頁巖油公司資本不足的問題時，Young提到了近年來石油和天然氣市場出現的“幾個關鍵因素”。

　　他表示:“首先，投資者要求他們獲得投資回報，而不是更換儲備替代品。在過去十年里，石油和天然氣公司只能替代部分已探明儲量。因此，投資者對長期投資失去了興趣。然后出現了“更環?！钡耐顿Y者。有一種趨勢是，上市石油公司會受到反石油和天然氣投資者的攻擊，導致董事會成員被那些可能不符合利益相關者最佳利益的人取代。在當前的世界心態下，投資者不想挑起爭端；他們只想要輕松的回報?！?/p>

　　裘寅 編譯自 Rigzone

　　原文如下：

　　What's Missing from Oil Prices?

　　The world’s two leading oil price benchmarks are omitting some important considerations, the head of a privately held Dallas-based oil and gas operator told Rigzone last week.

　　“The recent Saudi Arabia and UAE deal kept the OPEC and OPEC+ organizations at the forefront of supply discussions,” remarked Jay Young, founder and CEO of King Operation Corp. “The shorter impact of having the 400,000 barrels per day coming back online is not a significant amount and will not impact the pricing factor in the short run. The market is listening to multiple experts using different metrics with different outcomes.”

　　According to Young, oil demand will continue to go up even with the new COVID-19 Delta variant. However, he contends that two key issues – often ignored in other commodity pricing methodologies – need to be calculated into the Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil benchmarks:

　　increased fossil fuel usage as the energy market becomes “greener”

　　U.S. shale oil firms’ lack of capital.

　　Regarding the issue of greater fossil fuel consumption from a greener energy market, Young asserts that oil and gas demand has neither peaked nor will do so anytime soon.

　　“The major oil companies fleeing the market will only drive the price up, not reduce the demand,” Young said.

　　He cited dynamics in the coal market as a case in point.

　　“Coal usage in India, and other countries is way up and looks to keep that trend going,” said Young. “On the other hand, coal usage in California has not decreased, and demand is flat. How is that possible? Cement and asphalt are only two of the culprits for the continued use of fossil fuels. You can’t have new construction without fossil fuels. There are many other factors, and we will be publishing the numbers soon. California is also the highest kilowatt-hour (billing unit consumer) in the country while not decreasing consumption.”

　　Noting that his company’s research team is also examining electric vehicle (EV) numbers, Young argues that considering the total cost of EV ownership weakens its appeal over vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.

　　“We see data that shows there are not enough rare earth minerals to produce the batteries for the number of cars required,” Young said. “The world’s population has gotten used to ‘transportation at will.’ It will not change their current behavior patterns when the price for EVs is calculated with charging and battery replacement costs.”

　　On the issue of insufficient capital among U.S. shale oil firms, Young referenced what he calls “several key factors” that have occurred in recent years in the oil and gas market.

　　“First, investors demanded that they get returns on their investments rather than replace their reserve replacements,” Young said. “Over the past ten years, oil and gas companies could replace only a portion of their proved reserves. As a result, investors lost their appetite for long-term investments. Then along came the ‘greener’ investors. There is a trend for public oil companies to be attacked by anti-oil and gas investors, resulting in replacing board members with those that may not have the stakeholder’s best interest. Investors don’t want to pick a fight in the current world mindset; they just want no-hassle returns.”

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