據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)報(bào)7月15日消息：歐佩克堅(jiān)持其對(duì)2021年剩余時(shí)間全球石油需求強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇的預(yù)測(cè)，并預(yù)計(jì)在中國(guó)和印度的增長(zhǎng)帶動(dòng)下，2022年石油消費(fèi)量將進(jìn)一步上升，增幅與疫情前類似。
歐佩克在其月度報(bào)告中表示，明年的石油需求將增長(zhǎng)3.4%，達(dá)到9986萬(wàn)桶/天，到2022年下半年，日均需求量將超過(guò)1億桶。
根據(jù)歐佩克的數(shù)據(jù)，2019年石油需求平均為9998萬(wàn)桶/天。
“到2022年，除了通過(guò)加快疫苗接種計(jì)劃、有效治療和自然免疫(特別是在新興國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家)以及頻繁的檢測(cè)程序來(lái)改善對(duì)COVID-19的控制外，對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的健康預(yù)期，將刺激明年的石油消費(fèi)達(dá)到疫情前的水平，”歐佩克在報(bào)告中表示。
該報(bào)告反映出歐佩克對(duì)全球需求將從疫情中強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇的信心，使該組織及其盟友能夠進(jìn)一步放寬2020年制定的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的供應(yīng)限制。一些分析師認(rèn)為石油需求曾在2019年見(jiàn)頂。
歐佩克還維持了2021年石油需求將增長(zhǎng)595萬(wàn)桶/天的預(yù)測(cè)。
歐佩克報(bào)告發(fā)布之前，油價(jià)跌破74美元/桶。在歐佩克及其盟友(歐佩克+)減產(chǎn)的幫助下，今年迄今為止油價(jià)已上漲40%以上。
今年4月，歐佩克+同意從5月到7月逐步放松減產(chǎn)，但由于沙特和阿聯(lián)酋之間的爭(zhēng)端中斷了談判，目前尚未就2021年剩余時(shí)間的計(jì)劃作出決定。路透社周三報(bào)道稱，雙方已達(dá)成妥協(xié)。
周四的報(bào)告顯示歐佩克石油產(chǎn)量增加，反映了該組織增產(chǎn)的決定。歐佩克稱，6月石油產(chǎn)量增加59萬(wàn)桶/天，至2603萬(wàn)桶/天。
馮娟 摘譯自 經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)報(bào)
原文如下：
OPEC sees world oil demand reaching pre-pandemic level in 2022
OPEC stuck to its forecast for a strong recovery in world oil demand in the rest of 2021 and predicted oil use would rise further in 2022 similar to pre-pandemic rates, led by growth in China and India.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report on Thursday that demand next year would rise by 3.4% to 99.86 million barrels per day (bpd), averaging more than 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022.
Oil demand averaged 99.98 million bpd in 2019, according to OPEC.
"In 2022, healthy expectations for global economic growth in addition to improved containment of COVID-19 through the acceleration of vaccination programmes, effective treatment and natural immunisation, particularly in emerging and developing countries, along with frequent testing procedures, are assumed to spur consumption of oil next year to comparable pre-pandemic levels," OPEC said in the report.
The report reflected OPEC's confidence that world demand would recover robustly from the pandemic, allowing the group and its allies to further ease record supply curbs made in 2020. Some analysts had seen oil demand peaking in 2019.
OPEC also maintained its prediction that demand would grow by 5.95 million bpd in 2021.
Oil was trading just below $74 a barrel before the OPEC report was released. The price has climbed more than 40% so far this year with the help of supply cuts by OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+.
OPEC+ agreed in April to gradually ease output cuts from May to July and has yet to decide on plans for the rest of 2021 after a dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates disrupted talks. Reuters reported on Wednesday that the two had reached a compromise.
Thursday's report showed higher OPEC oil output, reflecting the decision to pump more. Output in June rose 590,000 bpd to 26.03 million bpd, OPEC said.
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