據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年8月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，這是英國(guó)石油公司（BP）最近發(fā)布的《2021年世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)回顧》系列文章的第四篇文章。 之前的三篇文章概述了今年的《回顧》，對(duì)碳排放數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了審查，并對(duì)石油供需趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了審視。

　　今天第四篇文章將深入研究天然氣生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)的數(shù)據(jù)。

　　直到上世紀(jì)80年代，美國(guó)一直在全球天然氣生產(chǎn)中占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)把領(lǐng)先地位讓給了俄羅斯。 在過(guò)去的50年里，中東地區(qū)的天然氣產(chǎn)量也在快速增長(zhǎng)，并正朝著全球領(lǐng)先的方向發(fā)展。

　　美國(guó)的天然氣產(chǎn)量一直在下降，直到2005年水力壓裂熱潮開始提振天然氣產(chǎn)量。 從2005年到2020年，美國(guó)的天然氣產(chǎn)量驚人地增長(zhǎng)了86%，使美國(guó)重新成為全球天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)中的領(lǐng)頭羊。

　　天然氣消費(fèi)量

　　由于發(fā)電廠越來(lái)越多地將天然氣作為燃煤發(fā)電的替代能源和可再生能源的后備能源，美國(guó)的天然氣消費(fèi)量迅速增長(zhǎng)。

　　天然氣供應(yīng)的增加和發(fā)電廠的改造帶來(lái)的凈影響使天然氣成為增長(zhǎng)最快的化石燃料。 過(guò)去10年，全球天然氣消費(fèi)量以年均2.9%的速度增長(zhǎng)，而石油和煤炭的消費(fèi)量分別為1.5%和0.9%。

　　為應(yīng)對(duì)Covid-19大流行，去年美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量大幅下降。 唯一可與之相比的下降發(fā)生在2008年房地產(chǎn)危機(jī)期間，自那之后，天然氣消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)恢復(fù)了正常趨勢(shì)。

　　自1965年以來(lái)，美國(guó)一直是世界上最大的天然氣消費(fèi)國(guó)。 2020年，除了墨西哥和德國(guó)的排名發(fā)生了變化外，前10大消費(fèi)國(guó)與2019年完全相同。

　　天然氣產(chǎn)量

　　在所有國(guó)家中，美國(guó)在2011年成為全球天然氣產(chǎn)量的領(lǐng)先者，并在此后大幅增長(zhǎng)。去年，由于Covid-19大流行對(duì)天然氣價(jià)格產(chǎn)生了負(fù)面影響，美國(guó)的天然氣產(chǎn)量下降了1.9%，但仍占全球產(chǎn)量的23.7%。

　　去年美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量為883億立方英尺/天，高于整個(gè)中東地區(qū)的天然氣產(chǎn)量(663億立方英尺/天)。前10大天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)排名與2019年相同。

　　天然氣出口量

　　天然氣生產(chǎn)繁榮的另一個(gè)結(jié)果是某些國(guó)家的天然氣出口量大幅增長(zhǎng)。 美國(guó)通過(guò)管道和液化天然氣(LNG)形式的天然氣出口在過(guò)去10年里激增。 去年，美國(guó)LNG出口量增長(zhǎng)至610億立方米。 在2010年，這個(gè)數(shù)字只有15億立方米。 美國(guó)現(xiàn)在是全球第3大LNG出口國(guó)，僅次于澳大利亞(1062億立方米)和卡塔爾(1061億立方米)。

　　美國(guó)的管道天然氣出口也大幅增長(zhǎng)，過(guò)去10年增長(zhǎng)了近兩倍，達(dá)到了761億立方米。 墨西哥一直是美國(guó)管道天然氣出口增長(zhǎng)最快的市場(chǎng)，去年美國(guó)管道天然氣進(jìn)口總量為543億立方米。 加拿大是美國(guó)管道天然氣出口的另一個(gè)重要目的地，為218億立方米。

　　天然氣儲(chǔ)量

　　美國(guó)可能還會(huì)在未來(lái)幾年繼續(xù)在天然氣生產(chǎn)方面領(lǐng)先世界，但其探明天然氣儲(chǔ)量意味著美國(guó)的領(lǐng)先可能是短暫的。

　　2017年底，中東探明天然氣儲(chǔ)量為2.8千萬(wàn)億立方英尺，而美國(guó)探明天然氣儲(chǔ)量為446萬(wàn)億立方英尺。從現(xiàn)在來(lái)看，美國(guó)探明天然氣儲(chǔ)量?jī)H占全球探明天然氣總量的6.7%。

　　俄羅斯探明天然氣儲(chǔ)量超過(guò)其他任何國(guó)家，有1.3千萬(wàn)億立方英尺。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. Natural Gas Dominance May Be Coming To An End

　　The is the fourth article in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. Previous articles provided an overview of this year’s Review, an examination of the data on carbon emissions, and a look at oil supply and demand trends.

　　Today I delve into the data on natural gas production and consumption.

　　The U.S. had dominated global natural gas production until the 1980s, at which time it ceded the lead to Russia. The Middle East has also grown its natural gas production at a rapid pace over the past 50 years, and was on pace to take the global lead.

　　Natural gas production had been in decline in the U.S. until the fracking boom that began to boost production in 2005. Production grew in the U.S. by an astounding 86% from 2005 to 2020, which pushed the U.S. back into the global lead among natural gas producers.

　　Natural Gas Consumption

　　U.S. consumption has grown rapidly as power plants have turned increasingly to natural gas as both a replacement for coal-fired power and a backup for new renewable capacity.

　　The net impact of growing natural gas supplies and conversion of power plants has caused natural gas to become the fastest-growing fossil fuel. Over the past decade, global natural gas consumption has grown at an average annual rate of 2.9%, versus 1.5% for oil and 0.9% for coal.

　　Production fell sharply in 2020 in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The only comparable decline came during the 2008 housing crisis, after which consumption growth returned to its normal trend.

　　The U.S. has consistently been the world’s top natural gas consumer since 1965. In 2020, the Top 10 consumers were exactly the same as in 2019, except Mexico and Germany switched positions.

　　Natural Gas Production

　　Among all countries, the U.S. moved into the lead for natural gas production in 2011, and has since substantially grown that lead. In 2020, U.S. production declined by 1.9% in response to the Covid-19 pandemic — which negatively impacted gas prices — but the U.S. retained a commanding 23.7% share of global production.

　　To put U.S. production into perspective, the 88.3 billion cubic feet per day (BCF/d) the U.S. produced in 2020 was greater than all Middle East natural gas production (66.3 BCF/d). The Top 10 producers were the same as in 2019.

　　Natural Gas Exports

　　Another result of the boom in natural gas production has been substantial growth in the gas exports of certain countries. U.S. exports, both via pipeline and as liquefied natural gas (LNG), have surged over the past 10 years. U.S. LNG exports grew last year to 61 billion cubic meters (BCM). For perspective, in 2010 that number was 1.5 BCM. The U.S. is now the 3rd largest LNG exporter, behind Australia (106.2 BCM) and Qatar (106.1 BCM).

　　Pipeline exports from the U.S. have also surged, nearly tripling over the past decade to 76.1 BCM. Mexico has been the largest growth market for pipeline exports, with 54.3 BCM of the total in 2020. Canada was the other destination of U.S. pipeline exports at 21.8 BCM.

　　Natural Gas Reserves

　　The U.S. may continue to lead the world in natural gas production for a few more years, but the level of proved natural gas reserves implies that our lead could be short-lived.

　　The Middle East’s proved natural gas reserves at the end of 2017 were 2.8 quadrillion cubic feet, versus U.S. proved reserves of 446 trillion cubic feet. For perspective, U.S. proved reserves are only 6.7% of the global total.

　　Russia has more proved natural gas reserves than any other country with 1.3 quadrillion cubic feet.

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