據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)12月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)在2021年12月的短期能源展望(STEO)中預(yù)測(cè)，到2022年12月，美國(guó)干天然氣產(chǎn)量將從2021年10月的951億立方英尺/天增加到975億立方英尺/天，增加24億立方英尺/天(增幅2.5%)。

如果實(shí)現(xiàn)，2022年12月的預(yù)測(cè)產(chǎn)量水平將超過2019年11月創(chuàng)下的972億立方英尺/天的歷史紀(jì)錄。2019年11月的紀(jì)錄是在新冠疫情宣布之前，以及在與疫情相關(guān)的需求下降導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量在2020年5月降至873億立方英尺/天的低點(diǎn)之前創(chuàng)下的。自2020年10月以來，干天然氣產(chǎn)量普遍上升。2021年天然氣產(chǎn)量保持在920億立方英尺/天以上，除了2月份，冬季風(fēng)暴嚴(yán)重影響了得克薩斯州的石油和天然氣產(chǎn)量。

天然氣產(chǎn)量的預(yù)測(cè)受新鉆的天然氣導(dǎo)向井的天然氣產(chǎn)量、現(xiàn)有井的天然氣產(chǎn)量以及石油生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生的伴生天然氣量的預(yù)期影響。2019-2020 年，天然氣導(dǎo)向鉆機(jī)（主要在含天然氣地層中鉆探的鉆機(jī)）數(shù)量有所減少。2020 年8月，鉆機(jī)數(shù)量處于自1987年（可用數(shù)據(jù)的最早年份）以來的最低月平均值。自2020年8月以來，天然氣導(dǎo)向鉆機(jī)數(shù)量普遍增加，2021年11月平均為102臺(tái)，但仍比2019年平均每月數(shù)量低約40%。

根據(jù)我們的鉆井產(chǎn)能報(bào)告，在海恩斯維爾地區(qū)和阿巴拉契亞盆地，由于鉆井活動(dòng)和每口井產(chǎn)量的增加，我們預(yù)計(jì)今年12月干天然氣產(chǎn)量將創(chuàng)下新高。伴生氣產(chǎn)量也有所增加，因?yàn)樯a(chǎn)商已經(jīng)完成了已鉆但未完井(DUC)的庫存，該庫存在2020年6月達(dá)到頂峰。根據(jù)我們12月的STEO預(yù)測(cè)，天然氣導(dǎo)向鉆機(jī)數(shù)量和伴生天然氣產(chǎn)量的增加將導(dǎo)致干天然氣產(chǎn)量的增加。

郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA Forecasts US Natural Gas Production Will Increase in 2022

In the December 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will increase from 95.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in October 2021 to 97.5 Bcf/d by December 2022, an increase of 2.4 Bcf/d (2.5%).

If realized, the December 2022 forecast production level will exceed the previous record of 97.2 Bcf/d, which was set in November 2019. The November 2019 record was set before COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, and before the COVID-19-associated declines in demand resulted in production declines to a low of 87.3 Bcf/d in May 2020. Dry natural gas production has generally risen since October 2020. Natural gas production remained above 92.0 Bcf/d in 2021, except in February, when a winter storm substantially affected oil and natural gas production in Texas.

The forecast for natural gas production is influenced by expectations for natural gas production from newly drilled gas-directed wells, natural gas production from existing wells, and the amount of associated natural gas resulting from oil production. The number of natural gas-directed rigs—rigs drilling primarily in natural gas-bearing formations—decreased throughout 2019 and into 2020. In August 2020, the rig count was at its lowest monthly average since 1987 (the earliest year of available data). Since August 2020, the natural gas-directed rig count has generally increased, averaging 102 rigs in November 2021, but remains about 40% lower than the average monthly count in 2019.

In both the Haynesville region and the Appalachian Basin, according to our Drilling Productivity Report, we expect dry natural gas production will set new highs this December as a result of both increased drilling activity and output per well. Associated natural gas production also increased because producers have been completing wells from their inventories of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells, which peaked in June 2020. Increases in both the number of natural gas-directed rigs and in associated natural gas production are expected to result in growing dry natural gas production in our December STEO forecast.

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