據(jù)世界石油網(wǎng)站12月13日?qǐng)?bào)道 歐佩克大幅提高了對(duì)明年第一季度全球石油需求的預(yù)測，因?yàn)椴《緤W密克戎將推遲今年的部分復(fù)蘇，但新病毒株的總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然有限。 

根據(jù)歐佩克研究部門的一份月度報(bào)告，該組織將這一時(shí)期的消費(fèi)量估計(jì)每天增加110萬桶，相當(dāng)于疫情前一年的世界消費(fèi)量年增長率。 

報(bào)告稱：“新的奧密克戎變種的影響預(yù)計(jì)是溫和的和短暫的，因?yàn)槿驊?yīng)對(duì)新冠疫情的能力逐漸增強(qiáng)。” 

這一預(yù)測調(diào)整意味著，歐佩克及其盟國在1月份繼續(xù)恢復(fù)石油生產(chǎn)的計(jì)劃時(shí)，不會(huì)產(chǎn)生如此巨大的盈余。本月早些時(shí)候做出增加生產(chǎn)的決定令交易員感到意外，因?yàn)槭袌鋈匀惠^為脆弱，這被廣泛解讀為沙特阿拉伯對(duì)美國的政治善意姿態(tài)。 

盡管如此，油價(jià)仍基本持穩(wěn)，倫敦原油交易價(jià)格接近每桶75美元，因?yàn)槌醪桔E象顯示，需求尚未受到最新病毒爆發(fā)的影響。歐佩克在技術(shù)會(huì)議上決定不增產(chǎn)，如果需要的話，在短時(shí)間內(nèi)扭轉(zhuǎn)供應(yīng)增加的趨勢，這也支撐了市場情緒。 

周一報(bào)告中對(duì)需求前景的調(diào)整類似于歐佩克+咨詢委員會(huì)在部長們做出決定前召開的會(huì)議。 

該報(bào)告第一季度對(duì)需求的提振被第二和第三季度的評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)所抵消。因此，2022年需求增長420萬桶/日的全年預(yù)測沒有變化。 

即使有了這一變化，如果歐佩克+繼續(xù)恢復(fù)疫情期間停止的生產(chǎn)，它也有可能在2022年初造成新的供應(yīng)過剩。 

該集團(tuán)估計(jì)，第一季度平均每天需要提供2789萬桶石油，不過報(bào)告顯示，該集團(tuán)13個(gè)成員國11月份的產(chǎn)量為2770萬桶。本月和下個(gè)月計(jì)劃的供應(yīng)增加將使該集團(tuán)的產(chǎn)出高到足以使全球庫存再次增加。 

然而，該組織的官員表示，他們對(duì)這一結(jié)果感到滿意，因?yàn)樵摷瘓F(tuán)的供應(yīng)限制導(dǎo)致庫存耗盡。報(bào)告顯示，發(fā)達(dá)國家10月份的庫存比五年平均水平低2.07億桶。 

王磊 摘譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

OPEC increases global oil demand forecast for Q1 2022

OPEC increased its forecast for global oil demand in the first quarter substantially, as some of this year’s recovery is delayed by Omicron but the overall risk from the new virus strain remains limited.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted estimates for consumption in the period by 1.1 million barrels a day -- equivalent to annual world consumption growth in a typical year before the pandemic -- according to a monthly report from the group’s research department.

“The impact of the new Omicron variant is projected to be mild and short-lived, as the world becomes better equipped to manage Covid-19 and its related challenges,” the report said.

The revision means that OPEC and its allies won’t create as big a surplus when they proceed with plans to continue reviving oil production in January. The decision to add barrels, taken earlier this month, surprised traders because markets remain so fragile. It was widely interpreted as a gesture of political goodwill from Saudi Arabia to the U.S.

Oil prices have nonetheless largely held up, with crude trading near $75 a barrel in London, as initial signs show that demand hasn’t yet suffered from the latest virus outbreak. OPEC’s decision to technically keep its meeting in session -- leaving the door open to reversing the supply increase at short notice if needed -- is also shoring up sentiment.

The adjustments to the demand outlook in the report on Monday resemble those taken by an OPEC+ advisory committee that met the evening before ministers made their decision.

The report’s boost to demand in the first quarter is offset by downgrades to the second and third quarters. As a result, there was no change to the full-year forecast for demand growth of 4.2 million barrels a day in 2022.

Even with the change, OPEC+ is likely to cause a new oversupply in early 2022 if it continues to restore production halted during the pandemic.

The group estimates it will need to provide an average of 27.89 million barrels a day during the first quarter, though the report shows that production from its 13 members was 27.7 million in November. Supply increases scheduled this month and next will leave the group’s output high enough to make global inventories increase again.

However, officials from the organization have indicated they’re comfortable with this outcome, given that the group’s supply restraint has left stocks depleted. Inventories in developed nations were 207 million barrels below their five-year average in October, according to the report.

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