據(jù)世界石油12月17日彭博社報道，高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)稱，不能排除2023年油價達到每桶100美元的可能性，因為預(yù)計供應(yīng)增加速度將太慢，無法跟上創(chuàng)紀錄的需求。

能源研究主管Damien Courvalin表示，盡管該行的基本預(yù)測是布倫特原油明年和2023年將維持在85美元左右，但有可能會突破三位數(shù)，原因要么是鉆井公司的成本上升，要么是意外的供應(yīng)短缺迫使價格飆升至足以破壞需求的水平。

上述上行風(fēng)險突顯出，即便油價今年已上漲逾40%，高盛仍看好油價的原因。該行認為，由于對奧密克戎相關(guān)限制的不必要擔(dān)憂，近期的拋售過度了。該行預(yù)計，一旦資產(chǎn)管理公司明年重新配置資金，投資者將逢低買入。

Courvalin周五在接受記者采訪時表示，面對強勁的需求，供應(yīng)不足。石油價格必須更高才能克服為項目提供資金的更高成本。

最近10美元的下跌相當于將3個月每天需求減少500萬桶的石油供應(yīng)桶量定價。Courvalin表示，這可能是一種過度反應(yīng)，因為迄今為止，各國政府似乎用更多的測試而不是新的封鎖來回應(yīng)奧密克戎。

他表示，從長遠來看，隨著投資者選擇支持以 ESG 為重點的行業(yè)，產(chǎn)出增長正受到上游成本通脹和融資成本增加等挑戰(zhàn)的影響。由于能源轉(zhuǎn)型的不確定性及其對燃料使用的影響，對長周期石油項目的投資也有所下降。

他稱，目前汽油、柴油和塑料等所有產(chǎn)品的需求都處于創(chuàng)紀錄水平，預(yù)計2022年和2023年的消費量將達到新高。由于新冠疫情相關(guān)的旅行限制，航空燃油的使用將繼續(xù)滯后，但隨著邊境重新開放，一些被壓抑的旅行需求可能會出現(xiàn)。

需求得到了強勁的政府資本支出支持，這既是為了支持經(jīng)濟從疫情中復(fù)蘇，也是為了為應(yīng)對氣候變化所需的能源轉(zhuǎn)型提供資金。對收入不平等的更多關(guān)注也將支持看好大宗商品，因為較貧窮的人往往會把收入的更大一部分用于商品和能源。

他表示，如果供應(yīng)無法跟上，而市場需要破壞需求才能達到平衡，那么油價可能會升至每桶110美元。

郝芬 譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

Goldman says $100 oil possible as record demand outpaces supply

Oil at $100 a barrel cannot be ruled out in 2023 as supply additions are expected to be too slow to keep up with record demand, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

While the bank’s base forecast is for Brent to stay around $85 next year and 2023, it could breach triple digits through either higher cost inflation for drillers, or if an unexpected supply shortfall forces prices to spike high enough to destroy demand, said Damien Courvalin, head of energy research.

The upside risks underscore why Goldman remains bullish on oil even after prices have rallied more than 40% this year. The bank sees the recent sell-off as overdone on unnecessary concerns about omicron-related restrictions and expects investors to buy the dip once asset managers reallocate money next year.

“There’s insufficient supply in the face of strong demand,” Courvalin said in a call with reporters Friday. “Oil prices have to be higher to overcome the higher cost of capital to fund projects.”

The recent $10 dip is the equivalent of pricing in a loss of 5 million barrels a day of demand for three months. That’s likely an overreaction, Courvalin said, as governments seem to be responding to omicron with more testing than new lockdowns so far.

Longer term, output growth is being hit by challenges including upstream cost inflation and more expensive financing as investors opt to support ESG-focused sectors, he said. Investments in long-cycle oil projects have also dipped due to uncertainties around energy transition and its impact on fuel usage.

Demand for everything from gasoline, diesel and plastics is currently at a record level, with consumption expected to reach new highs in 2022 and 2023, he said. Use of jet fuel will continue to lag due to Covid-related travel restrictions, but some pent-up demand for travel is likely to emerge as borders reopen.

Demand is being supported by strong government capital expenditure, both to support the economic recovery from Covid and to fund the energy transition needed to combat climate change. An increased focus on income inequality will also support commodities, as poorer people tend to spend a higher portion of their income on goods and energy.

Oil prices could go as high as $110 a barrel if supply can’t keep up and the market needs demand destruction in order to balance, he said.

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