據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年1月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)布了其最新的多年油價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)，這個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)將持續(xù)到2026年。
根據(jù)最新預(yù)測(cè)，惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油均價(jià)將達(dá)到72美元/桶，2023年將達(dá)到73美元/桶，2024年將達(dá)到75美元/桶，2025年和2026年均將達(dá)到78美元/桶。
惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究機(jī)構(gòu)的這一預(yù)測(cè)與彭博共識(shí)大致一致。彭博共識(shí)在報(bào)告中強(qiáng)調(diào)，今年布倫特原油的平均價(jià)格將達(dá)到每桶73美元，2023年將達(dá)到每桶73.4美元，2024年將達(dá)到每桶74.7美元，2025年將達(dá)到每桶69.9美元。 2026年的預(yù)測(cè)并不包括在內(nèi)。
惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究機(jī)構(gòu)的分析師在本周早些時(shí)候提交給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站中的一份報(bào)告中表示：“去年12月我們?cè)俅螌?022年布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)維持在72美元/桶的水平，同時(shí)我們認(rèn)為全年供應(yīng)過剩的情況將保持不變。”
“前景仍然受制于供求雙方的多重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 盡管奧密克戎變種在全球引發(fā)了前所未有的高感染率，但到目前為止，住院率仍處于可控范圍內(nèi)，與早期德爾塔變種相比，出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重疾病的可能性似乎更小。”
分析人士繼續(xù)說：“各國(guó)對(duì)新疫情的反應(yīng)各不相同，許多國(guó)家實(shí)施了軟性封鎖和旅行限制，這在很大程度上影響了航空需求。”
惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究分析師在報(bào)告中指出，供應(yīng)仍然不確定，考慮到需求的不確定性，歐佩克+緊縮政策的潛在轉(zhuǎn)變是一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
撰寫本文時(shí)，布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶82.72美元。
李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站
原文如下：
Analyst Releases Latest Multi-Year Oil Price Forecast
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has released its latest multi-year oil price forecast, which stretches to 2026.
According to its latest projections, the company now sees the average price of Brent hitting $72 per barrel this year, $73 per barrel in 2023, $75 per barrel in 2024, and $78 per barrel in both 2025 and 2026.
The forecast is roughly in line with the Bloomberg Consensus. The Bloomberg Consensus highlighted in the report projects that the average price of Brent will come in at $73 per barrel in 2022, $73.4 per barrel in 2023, $74.7 per barrel in 2024, and $69.9 per barrel in 2025. A forecast for 2026 is not included.
“This month we again hold our Brent price forecast for 2022 steady at $72 per barrel with our narrative for oversupply to build throughout the year remaining intact,” analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research stated in the report, which was sent to Rigzone earlier this week.
“However, the outlook remains subject to multiple risks on both the supply and demand-side fronts. While the Omicron variant is fueling new all-time high infection rates across the globe, so far hospitalization rates remain manageable and severe illness is appearing less likely than with earlier variants,” the analysts added in the report.
“However, the national responses to the new outbreaks have been mixed, with many implementing soft lockdowns and travel restrictions, largely impacting aviation demand,” the analysts continued.
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research analysts noted in the report that supply also remains uncertain, with a potential shift in OPEC+ tapering policy a risk given the uncertainty in demand.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $82.72 per barrel.
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