據(jù)彭博社1月5日消息：美國(guó)石油期貨交易價(jià)格高于75美元，但每年數(shù)十億美元的大宗商品投資重組將引發(fā)一輪拋售。

每年1月，全球兩大大宗商品指數(shù)：標(biāo)普GSCI指數(shù)和彭博商品指數(shù)都會(huì)重新調(diào)整，從而刺激大宗商品市場(chǎng)的大量資金流入和流出。據(jù)法國(guó)興業(yè)銀行估計(jì)，對(duì)西得克薩斯中質(zhì)油(WTI)而言，這意味著追蹤這兩個(gè)基準(zhǔn)的投資可能準(zhǔn)備好從市場(chǎng)上撤出價(jià)值近6,000萬桶的期貨合約。

這家法國(guó)銀行去年11月估計(jì)，這些資金流的美元價(jià)值非常可觀，約為46億美元。根據(jù)12月的一份報(bào)告，花旗集團(tuán)預(yù)計(jì)將售出約31億美元的股票。每種指數(shù)都有五天的波動(dòng)期，第一個(gè)波動(dòng)期從1月的第五個(gè)工作日開始，不過交易員往往會(huì)提前進(jìn)行持倉。

資金流動(dòng)的壓力將打擊美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)原油期貨合約，因?yàn)樾枨髲?fù)蘇且歐佩克及其盟友的供應(yīng)仍然受限，這有助于消耗庫存，而此時(shí)價(jià)格仍處于高位。西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油目前的價(jià)格距離2014年10月以來的最高點(diǎn)還差10美元左右。

雖然沒有明確估計(jì)跟蹤BCOM和標(biāo)普GSCI的資金有多少，但前者去年表示，隨后的資產(chǎn)超過1000億美元。彭博指數(shù)服務(wù)有限公司是彭博指數(shù)(包括BCOM)的管理人，是彭博有限公司的全資子公司。

管理資產(chǎn)總額的數(shù)字很重要，因?yàn)樗鼈冊(cè)谝欢ǔ潭壬蠜Q定了再平衡的價(jià)值。如果管理的資產(chǎn)較大，則再平衡的規(guī)模可能會(huì)增加。

決定資金流動(dòng)規(guī)模的其他重要因素包括2021年各大宗商品的表現(xiàn)、生產(chǎn)水平和總體交易量。

馮娟 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

U.S. Oil Market Braces for a $4.6 Billion Wave of Selling

U.S. oil futures are trading above $75 but the yearly reshuffling of billions of dollars of commodity investments are about to trigger a sharp bout of selling.

Every January, the world’s two biggest commodities indexes -- the GSCI Index and the Bloomberg Commodities Index -- reset, spurring a raft of inflows and outflows across commodity markets. For WTI, that means investments tracking both benchmarks could be ready to pull almost 60 million barrels worth of futures contracts from the market, according to Societe Generale estimates.

The dollar value of those flows is significant -- the French bank estimated in November it would be the equivalent of about $4.6 billion. Citigroup Inc. expects about $3.1 billion of selling, according to a December report. The flows occur during a five-day roll period for each index, the first of which begins on the fifth working day of January, though traders often position themselves ahead of time.

The pressure from financial flows will hit the benchmark U.S. crude futures contract at a time when prices remain elevated as recovering demand and still-constrained supply from OPEC and its allies help drain inventories. West Texas Intermediate’s current price is about $10 short of reaching the highest since October 2014.

While there’s no definitive estimate of how much money tracks BCOM and GSCI, the former said last year it’s followed by more than $100 billion in assets. Bloomberg Index Services Ltd., the administrator of Bloomberg Indices, including BCOM, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg LP.

The figures for total assets under management matter because they, in part, dictate the value of the rebalancing. If assets under management are larger, then the size of the rebalancing can increase.

Other significant factors determining the scale of the flows are how individual commodities performed in 2021, production levels and overall trading volumes.

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