據(jù)世界石油網(wǎng)1月2日消息 預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克及其盟友下周開會(huì)時(shí)將恢復(fù)更多的石油供應(yīng)，這突出表明該組織對(duì)全球需求前景的樂觀態(tài)度。

根據(jù)彭博社的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查，由沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的23國(guó)聯(lián)盟可能會(huì)繼續(xù)進(jìn)行另一次每月40萬(wàn)桶的增產(chǎn)。一些國(guó)家代表還表示，他們預(yù)計(jì)將于2月生效的提振措施將繼續(xù)實(shí)施。

歐佩克及其合作伙伴認(rèn)為，今年全球需求將繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇，而奧密克戎變體只帶來(lái)了輕微的影響。他們的信心正在得到驗(yàn)證，因?yàn)閬喼拗饕M(fèi)國(guó)的交通繁忙和美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存減少，使國(guó)際油價(jià)接近每桶80美元。

咨詢公司Rapidan能源集團(tuán)總裁、前白宮官員鮑勃·麥克納利表示：“只要奧密克戎或宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退不會(huì)再次壓垮需求，市場(chǎng)就可以接受額外的石油。”

彭博社調(diào)查的16名分析師和交易員中，有15人預(yù)測(cè)，當(dāng)歐佩克周二在線上開會(huì)時(shí)，產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)將獲得批準(zhǔn)。根據(jù)彭博采用蘋果公司截至12月27日的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)匯編的數(shù)據(jù)，燃料消耗指標(biāo)表明，除一個(gè)主要亞洲國(guó)家外，其他所有國(guó)家的流動(dòng)性都在逐月上升，產(chǎn)量可以被消耗。

增加供應(yīng)還表明，利雅得繼續(xù)關(guān)注影響其最大客戶的通脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，上月默許了美國(guó)增加產(chǎn)量以降低失控汽油價(jià)格的呼吁。

雖然這一意外舉動(dòng)最初被交易員解讀為看跌，但沙特能源部長(zhǎng)Abdulaziz bin Salman通過(guò)決定歐佩克會(huì)議將在技術(shù)上保持會(huì)期來(lái)幫助提振市場(chǎng)情緒，從而允許歐佩克在必要時(shí)在短時(shí)間內(nèi)逆轉(zhuǎn)產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)。

吳恒磊 編譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

OPEC to increase oil output as 2022 demand confidence grows

OPEC and its allies are expected to revive more oil supplies when they meet next week, underscoring the group’s optimism in the outlook for global demand.

The 23-nation alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is likely to proceed with another modest monthly hike of 400,000 barrels a day as it restores production halted during the pandemic, according to a Bloomberg survey. Several national delegates also said they expect the boost -- due to take effect in February -- will go ahead.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners see global demand continuing to recover this year, taking only a “mild” hit from the omicron variant. Their confidence is being validated as busy traffic across key Asian consuming countries and dwindling crude inventories in the U.S. buoy international prices near $80 a barrel.

“The market can take the extra oil, as long as omicron or a macro downturn don’t crush demand again,” said Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official.

Fifteen of 16 analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the output increase will be approved when the coalition gathers online on Tuesday. Indicators on fuel consumption suggest the barrels can be absorbed, with all but one major Asian country registering a rise in mobility month-on-month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg using Apple Inc. statistics to Dec. 27.

Adding supplies would also show that Riyadh continues to be mindful of the inflationary risks afflicting their biggest customers, having acquiesced last month to U.S. 's calls for extra production to cool runaway gasoline prices.

While that surprise move was initially read as bearish by traders, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman helped to shore up market sentiment by resolving that OPEC’s meeting would remain technically “in session” -- allowing it to reverse the output increase at short notice if needed.

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