據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站1月12日消息 美國能源信息管理署（EIA）在其1月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中表示，由于供應(yīng)增長超過需求增長，全球庫存增加將使今明兩年的油價(jià)下跌。

EIA表示，布倫特原油價(jià)格在2021年第四季度平均為79美元/桶，2022年平均為75美元，2023年平均為68美元。

EIA在其月度展望中稱，美國基準(zhǔn)WTI原油預(yù)計(jì)今年平均為每桶71.32美元，明年平均每桶63.50美元。

周三早些時(shí)候，在EIA發(fā)布每周庫存報(bào)告之前，WTI原油交易價(jià)格在每桶82美元以上，布倫特原油交易價(jià)格在每桶84美元以上。此前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾周二表示，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)只會(huì)受到奧密克戎病例激增的短期影響，并準(zhǔn)備開始收緊貨幣政策。

根據(jù)EIA的估計(jì)，由于需求增長快于供應(yīng)增長，去年全球平均每天消耗庫存140萬桶。然而，今年需求增長將放緩，而供應(yīng)增長將加快，導(dǎo)致全球石油庫存增加。

EIA稱，受美國、歐佩克和俄羅斯產(chǎn)量增長的推動(dòng)，2022年全球石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加550萬桶/日，這三個(gè)國家的產(chǎn)量加起來將占增長的84%，即460萬桶/日。

與此同時(shí)，美國政府指出，2022年全球石油消費(fèi)量將增加360萬桶/日。

EIA稱，今年庫存將增加50萬桶/日，明年平均增加60萬桶/日，給油價(jià)帶來下行壓力。

上個(gè)月，高盛預(yù)測，由于需求增長超過供應(yīng)增長，2023年原油價(jià)格可能達(dá)到100美元。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

EIA Sees Oil Prices Dropping In 2022, 2023

Global inventory builds due to supply growth outpacing demand increases will pressure oil prices down this year and next, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for January.

Brent Crude prices, which averaged $79 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2021, are set to average $75 per barrel during 2022 and $68 a barrel in 2023, the EIA said. 

The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, is expected to average $71.32 per barrel this year and $63.50 a barrel next year, the EIA said in its monthly outlook.

Early on Wednesday, before EIA’s weekly inventory report, WTI Crude was trading above $82, and Brent Crude was above $84 a barrel, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the U.S. economy would see only a “short-lived” impact from the Omicron surge, and was ready for the beginning of monetary policy tightening. 

According to EIA’s estimates, inventory withdrawals globally averaged 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, thanks to faster demand growth than supply increases. This year, however, demand growth is set to slow while supply will grow faster, leading to builds in global petroleum inventories.

The world’s oil production is set to jump by 5.5 million bpd in 2022, driven by production increases in the United States, OPEC, and Russia, which together will account for 84 percent, or 4.6 million bpd, of the growth, the EIA said.

At the same time, global petroleum consumption will increase by 3.6 million bpd in 2022, the administration noted.

Inventories will build by 500,000 bpd this year, and by an average 600,000 bpd next year, putting downward pressure on oil prices, the EIA says. 

Last month, Goldman Sachs forecast crude oil prices could hit $100 in 2023 as demand growth outpaces supply growth.

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