據(jù)今日石油網(wǎng)2022年3月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，圭亞那當(dāng)局日前表示，圭亞那將致力于支持一項(xiàng)在其海岸以外積極油氣勘探和生產(chǎn)的計(jì)劃，因?yàn)楣鐏喣钦J(rèn)為，石油和天然氣行業(yè)的收入在這個(gè)南美國(guó)家的能源轉(zhuǎn)型中將發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。 

根據(jù)挪威雷斯塔能源公司的說法，這很可能是事實(shí)。 但令人震驚的不僅僅是圭亞那石油工業(yè)可能的長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展。 另外，圭亞那的石油產(chǎn)量在21世紀(jì)30年代將會(huì)繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，而世界大多數(shù)主要的近海深水生產(chǎn)商屆時(shí)將會(huì)看到他們的產(chǎn)量水平下降。  

這是雷斯塔能源公司拉丁美洲分析師Sofia Forestieri在日前舉行的加勒比油氣虛擬峰會(huì)上做出的分析。

在介紹加勒比海油氣行業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局時(shí)，F(xiàn)orestieri將圭亞那和蘇里南的前景與世界上主要的深水生產(chǎn)國(guó)(包括挪威、英國(guó)、墨西哥和美國(guó))進(jìn)行了比較。

她說：“隨著項(xiàng)目上線，我們看到圭亞那和蘇里南以一種非常重要、非常成功的方式增加產(chǎn)量。”

今年，在埃克森美孚公司擔(dān)任作業(yè)者的圭亞那斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊深水開發(fā)項(xiàng)目的總?cè)债a(chǎn)能將達(dá)到34萬桶。 

Forestieri解釋說，到2031年前，圭亞那的原油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將超過100萬桶，屆時(shí)圭亞那將超過挪威和安哥拉，成為世界上第三大深水產(chǎn)油國(guó)。 

Forestieri表示：“到2033年前，我們預(yù)計(jì)圭亞那的原油產(chǎn)量將超過美國(guó)墨西哥灣，成為全球第二大深水原油生產(chǎn)國(guó)。”  

雷斯塔能源公司還預(yù)計(jì)，到那時(shí)，除3個(gè)深水產(chǎn)油國(guó)外，所有深水產(chǎn)油國(guó)的原油日產(chǎn)量都將低于100萬桶。 預(yù)計(jì)到2035年，圭亞那仍將以日產(chǎn)170萬桶原油速度增長(zhǎng)。

雷斯塔能源公司預(yù)計(jì)，到那時(shí)，巴西將是全球最大的深水產(chǎn)油國(guó)，其原油日產(chǎn)量將接近500萬桶。 

李峻 編譯自 今日石油網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Guyana on track to become second largest deepwater producer in the world, says Rystad Energy

Authorities in Guyana say the country is committed to supporting an aggressive exploration and production programme off of its coast since it sees revenues coming in from the oil and gas sector as playing a key role in the transformation of the South American nation.

And according to Norway-based Rystad Energy, that may very well be the case. But it isn’t just the likely longevity of Guyana’s oil industry that is striking. It is also that, while Guyana’s production grows in the 2030s, most leading offshore deepwater producers will see their production levels wane.

This is according to analysis from Sofia Forestieri, Latin America analyst for Rystad Energy, during the Caribbean Oil & Gas Virtual Summit last week.

During her presentation of the Caribbean oil & gas industry’s competitive landscape, Forestieri compared the prospects of Guyana and Suriname to the leading deepwater producers around the world, including countries like Norway, the United Kingdom, Mexico and the United States.

She said, “As projects come online, we see Guyana and Suriname ramping up production in a very important, very successful way.”

Guyana’s deepwater development projects at the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block will reach a combined capacity of 340,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) this year.

Forestieri explains that by 2031, the country is expected to soar beyond one million barrels per day, already overtaking Norway and Angola to be the third largest deepwater producer in the world.

“By 2033, we see Guyana overcoming the US Gulf of Mexico’s output and becoming the second largest deepwater crude producer in the world,” the analyst said.

By then, Rystad Energy also projects that all but three deepwater producers will have production levels below a million barrels a day. In 2035, where the projection ends, Guyana is still shooting upward at about 1.7 million barrels per day.

The only deepwater producer Rystad Energy expects to be above Guyana by then is Brazil, with close to 5 million barrels of oil per day.