? 歐洲迫切希望取代生產(chǎn)大國的天然氣，而該國的天然氣已經(jīng)推動(dòng)美國盡可能多地出口液化天然氣。  

? 美國已經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)12個(gè)新的液化天然氣項(xiàng)目，但由于長期需求的不確定性，這些新項(xiàng)目不太可能全部完成。  

? 雖然歐洲目前急需天然氣，但其長期目標(biāo)是擺脫化石燃料，這意味著其中一些新項(xiàng)目在經(jīng)濟(jì)上屬于不可行項(xiàng)目。 

據(jù)美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)4月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國的液化天然氣出口在全球能源危機(jī)和歐洲減少對(duì)能源生產(chǎn)大國天然氣依賴的努力下蓬勃發(fā)展。 由于美國打算幫助歐洲減少對(duì)該國天然氣的依賴，美國今年的天然氣出口量躍升至歷史最高水平。 由于天然氣需求的增長，美國墨西哥灣沿岸的液化天然氣出口設(shè)施正在滿負(fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，已無法比現(xiàn)在運(yùn)送更多的液化天然氣——至少現(xiàn)在不行。

許多液化天然氣出口工廠的項(xiàng)目正在考慮中，或者已經(jīng)獲得美國當(dāng)局批準(zhǔn)，但正在等待最終投資決定。 雖然目前液化天然氣的需求——尤其是在歐洲的液化天然氣需求——依然強(qiáng)勁，而且很可能吸引通常將運(yùn)往亞洲的貨物，歐洲為擺脫對(duì)該國天然氣的依賴所采取的措施包括，從長遠(yuǎn)來看減少天然氣的使用，加大對(duì)可再生能源的投入，以便在2050年前實(shí)現(xiàn)氣候中和的目標(biāo)。

這對(duì)美國液化天然氣開發(fā)商來說可不是什么好消息，他們需要數(shù)十年的長期供應(yīng)承諾和購買協(xié)議，以便為需要數(shù)年才能建成的數(shù)十億美元項(xiàng)目籌集投資。

從水力壓裂到甲烷泄漏，對(duì)液化天然氣供應(yīng)鏈溫室氣體排放的環(huán)境擔(dān)憂，也可能限制美國從現(xiàn)在起10到20年將向歐洲輸送液化天然氣的數(shù)量。  

美國液化天然氣出口激增  

目前，美國的液化天然氣出口正在蓬勃發(fā)展，大部分出口到歐洲，因?yàn)槟抢锏膬r(jià)格最高，需求最強(qiáng)勁。 在去年秋季開始的能源危機(jī)中，甚至在爆發(fā)軍事沖突之前，歐洲對(duì)液化天然氣的需求就很高。 然而，在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)開始后，由于歐盟誓言在年底前將歐盟對(duì)能源生產(chǎn)大國天然氣的需求減少三分之二，需求出現(xiàn)了急劇下降。

根據(jù)美國能源信息署（EIA）的最新數(shù)據(jù)，美國1月份液化天然氣出口創(chuàng)歷史新高。 美國能源部最新的《液化天然氣月報(bào)》顯示，美國今年2月份的液化天然氣出口量比1月份下降10.5%，但比去年2月份增加51.9%。 今年2月份，占到美國液化天然氣出口總量57.5%的5個(gè)最大目的地國家，分別是土耳其、法國、西班牙、荷蘭和韓國。2月份，美國液化天然氣的最大亞洲買家僅排在歐洲和地中海目的地之后，排名第五。 

美國已經(jīng)開始擁有世界上最大的液化天然氣出口能力，超過澳大利亞和卡塔爾，路易斯安那州卡梅倫的卡爾克蘇帕斯液化天然氣生產(chǎn)廠的第一批貨物已在3月份從美國液化天然氣開發(fā)商Venture Global LNG旗下新啟用的設(shè)施出發(fā)。

美國的液化天然氣出口工廠正在滿負(fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，因此時(shí)下幾乎沒有增加出貨量的產(chǎn)能。 為了獲得更多的美國液化天然氣，歐洲必須依賴從亞洲轉(zhuǎn)過來的貨物，因?yàn)闅W洲的價(jià)格更高，而且歐盟希望盡快取代該國的供應(yīng)。 這種情況之所以發(fā)生，是因?yàn)閬喼拊S多對(duì)價(jià)格敏感的買家正在撤出現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)。

并非所有擬議的液化天然氣項(xiàng)目可能看到曙光

液化天然氣出口設(shè)施需要鎖定長期采購協(xié)議，以確保這些昂貴項(xiàng)目的可行性。盡管近幾個(gè)月來與亞洲大賣家的協(xié)議簽署速度加快，但歐洲的長期能源政策仍植根于到2030年前將天然氣使用量減少30%的理念，以實(shí)現(xiàn)氣候目標(biāo)。  

在美國，有十幾個(gè)項(xiàng)目得到了聯(lián)邦能源管理委員會(huì)(FERC)的批準(zhǔn)，但還沒有動(dòng)工，因?yàn)檫@些項(xiàng)目需要最終投資決定、投資者或長期客戶。另外6個(gè)項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)提交給FERC，另外兩個(gè)項(xiàng)目正處在申報(bào)前階段。 

美國戰(zhàn)略與國際研究中心能源與地緣政治項(xiàng)目詹姆斯·R·史萊辛格主席Nikos Tsafos在今年3月份曾表示：“擁有歐洲客戶，尤其是如果得到公共資金的支持，美國可能很容易創(chuàng)造出一大筆液化天然氣供應(yīng)。”

然而，建設(shè)一個(gè)新項(xiàng)目需要長達(dá)5年的時(shí)間，所有新項(xiàng)目的規(guī)劃都有20年的投資期限和長達(dá)20年的穩(wěn)定銷售合同。 

“對(duì)于一家希望在2050年前實(shí)現(xiàn)歐洲大陸氣候中和目標(biāo)的歐洲公司來說，這些時(shí)間尺度帶來了一個(gè)難題。歐洲客戶在2025年或2030年可能需要天然氣，但不會(huì)在2040年，也可能不會(huì)在2045年。 這種不匹配阻礙了美國液化天然氣項(xiàng)目在歐洲的幫助下向前發(fā)展。”

Tsafos在4月份曾對(duì)英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示：“有一個(gè)大客戶想要液化天然氣，但你不太確定能堅(jiān)持多久。”歐洲現(xiàn)在希望獲得大量非能源生產(chǎn)大國的天然氣，但理想情況下，歐洲不希望10年或20年后天然氣供應(yīng)增加。 就美國而言，由于其運(yùn)營的出口設(shè)施產(chǎn)能已達(dá)到極限，目前無法發(fā)運(yùn)更多的液化天然氣。 對(duì)于未來的項(xiàng)目來說，歐洲2050年的凈零目標(biāo)和整體減少天然氣使用的努力對(duì)美國開發(fā)商來說不是好消息，他們正在尋求長期的購買交易和投資，將他們的計(jì)劃帶入運(yùn)營項(xiàng)目。 

美國領(lǐng)先的液化天然氣出口商切尼爾能源公司總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官Jack Fusco告訴英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》記者：“我希望我能給歐洲帶來更好的消息，但一個(gè)大項(xiàng)目需要…… 至少5年多的時(shí)間才能完成。”

李峻 編譯自 美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

The Problem With America’s LNG Boom

·     Europe is desperate to replace gas, which has driven the U.S. to export as much LNG as it possibly can.

·    12 new LNG projects in the U.S. have already been approved, but they are unlikely to all be completed due to long-term uncertainty.

·     While Europe is currently desperate for natural gas, its long-term goal is to move away from fossil fuels, which means some of these projects aren’t economically viable.

America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are booming amid a global energy crisis and a European drive to wean itself off Russian gas. U.S. shipments of natural gas have jumped to all-time highs this year as the United States is intent on helping Europe cut its dependence on its gas. As demand for natural gas grows, export facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast are operating at capacity and cannot ship more LNG than they are currently doing—at least not now.  

Many projects for LNG export plants are under consideration or are already approved by authorities but awaiting final investment decisions (FIDs). While current LNG demand, especially in Europe, remains strong and is likely to draw cargoes that would have typically gone to Asia, Europe’s push to free itself from Russian gas includes reducing gas use in the long term and doubling down on renewables to reach its climate neutrality goal by 2050. 

This is hardly good news for American LNG developers, who need long-term supply commitments and purchase agreements for decades in order to raise investments for the multi-billion projects that take years to build.

Environmental concerns about the greenhouse gas emissions of the LNG supply chain, from fracking to methane leaks, could also put a limit on the amount of LNG America will be able to send to Europe a decade or two from now. 

U.S. LNG Exports Booming

Right now, U.S. LNG exports are booming, and most are going to Europe, where the prices are the highest and demand is the strongest. Amid the energy crisis that began last autumn, LNG demand was high in Europe even before the war. After the war started, however, demand went off the charts as the European Union vowed to reduce EU demand for gas by two-thirds before the end of the year. 

U.S. LNG exports hit a record high in January, according to the latest EIA data. In February, exports decreased by 10.5 percent from January 2022 but jumped by 51.9 percent compared to February 2021, the Department of Energy’s latest LNG Monthly showed. The top five countries of destination, representing 57.5 percent of total U.S. LNG exports in February 2022, were Turkey, France, Spain, the Netherlands, and South Korea. The top Asian buyer of U.S. LNG in February came only fifth behind destinations in Europe and the Mediterranean. 

The U.S. is already on course to have the largest LNG export capacity in the world, ahead of Australia and Qatar, with the first cargo produced at Calcasieu Pass LNG in Cameron, Louisiana, having departed from Venture Global LNG’s newly-commissioned facility last month. 

LNG export plants are running at capacity in the U.S., so there is little room for increased shipments. To secure more American LNG, Europe must rely on cargoes being redirected from Asia due to the higher prices in Europe and the EU’s motivation to replace as much supply as it can as soon as possible. This is happening right now since many price-sensitive buyers in Asia are backing out of the spot market. 

Not All Proposed LNG Projects May See The Light Of Day

Facilities need to lock in long-term purchase deals to secure the viability of the expensive projects, and while deal-signing with the big Asian barginer has accelerated in recent months, Europe’s long-term energy policy remains rooted in the idea of reducing gas use by 30 percent by 2030 to reach climate goals.  

In the United States, there are a dozen projects approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) but not under construction yet as they need a final investment decision, investors, or long-term customers. Another six projects have been proposed to FERC, and two others are in the pre-filing stage.  

“Having European customers, especially if supported by public money, could easily create a huge tranche of LNG supply,” Nikos Tsafos, a James R. Schlesinger Chair in Energy and Geopolitics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote last month. 

However, it takes up to five years to build a new project, and all new projects are planned with a 20-year investment horizon and firm sale contracts of up to 20 years. 

“For a European company that wants to be aligned with the continent’s target for climate neutrality by 2050, these time scales present a problem. A European customer might want gas in 2025 or 2030, but not in 2040 and likely not by 2045. This mismatch prevents U.S. LNG projects from moving forward with European help,” Tsafos noted. 

“There’s a big customer out there that wants LNG, but you’re not quite sure for how long,” Tsafos told the Financial Times this month.  

Europe wants a lot of non-Russian gas now, but, ideally, it wants to not want an increased gas supply a decade or two from now. The U.S., for its part, cannot currently ship more LNG than it is already doing as its operating export facilities are maxed out. For future projects, Europe’s 2050 net-zero goal and a push to reduce gas use overall is not good news for U.S. developers looking at long-term purchase deals and investments to bring their plans to operating projects. 

“I wish I had better news for Europe but it’s going to take?.?.?.?at least five-plus years to get anything of size done,” Jack Fusco, president and CEO of the leading U.S. LNG exporter, Cheniere Energy, told FT.