據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站2023年5月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，惠譽(yù)解決方案旗下的研究公司BMI日前在發(fā)給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份新報(bào)告中披露了其截至2027年的最新布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)。  

根據(jù)這份新報(bào)告，BMI預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格為每桶85美元，2024年和2025年為每桶83美元，2026年和2027年為每桶80美元。彭博共識(shí)預(yù)測(cè)，今年布倫特原油價(jià)格平均每桶86美元，2024年平均每桶87美元，2025年平均每桶85美元，2026年平均每桶79美元，2027年平均每桶71美元。

在4月3日發(fā)給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份報(bào)告中，惠譽(yù)解決方案預(yù)測(cè)今年布倫特原油價(jià)格平均為每桶85美元，2024年和2025年平均為每桶83美元，2026年和2027年平均為每桶80美元。彭博共識(shí)在那份報(bào)告中認(rèn)為，今年布倫特原油價(jià)格平均每桶為87美元，2024年平均為每桶88美元，2025年平均每桶為82美元，2026年平均為每桶80美元，2027年平均為每桶75美元。惠譽(yù)解決方案在其今年4月份的報(bào)告中強(qiáng)調(diào)，此前曾預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油的平均價(jià)格為每桶90美元。

BMI分析師在最新報(bào)告中表示：“本月我們維持布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)不變，今年平均每桶85美元，反映出相對(duì)于當(dāng)前現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格水平(每桶76美元)和今年迄今為止的平均價(jià)格表現(xiàn)(每桶82美元)的看漲前景。”

“市場情緒目前極其脆弱，投資者對(duì)看漲市場的發(fā)展普遍充耳不聞。我們預(yù)計(jì)，受季節(jié)性需求強(qiáng)勁、歐佩克+減產(chǎn)和原油庫存減少的刺激，油價(jià)將在第二和第三季度回升。”

分析師警告稱：“然而，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩以及美國和歐盟預(yù)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將對(duì)油價(jià)下行壓力造成影響。” 

賣空者重獲控制權(quán)

BMI分析師在最近發(fā)布的報(bào)告中指出，賣空者已經(jīng)重新控制市場，“導(dǎo)致原油價(jià)格比4月份的峰值下跌了11%”。  

分析師在報(bào)告中稱，“在同一時(shí)期，布倫特原油資產(chǎn)管理機(jī)構(gòu)持有的多頭倉位減少了25%，而空頭倉位飆升了129%”。

分析師們補(bǔ)充說：“面對(duì)4月2日宣布并于5月1日生效的歐佩克+每日額外減產(chǎn)116萬桶原油產(chǎn)量，伊拉克從3月25日開始中斷了每天45萬桶原油的出口，以及5月初加拿大因野火導(dǎo)致每天超過10萬桶的原油產(chǎn)量損失，市場倉位發(fā)生了波動(dòng)。”

BMI分析師繼續(xù)說：“總的來說，這相當(dāng)于全球近2%的原油供應(yīng)停產(chǎn)，但市場的反應(yīng)相對(duì)平靜。”

分析師在報(bào)告中指出，盡管供應(yīng)方面的發(fā)展本應(yīng)支持布倫特原油價(jià)格，但推動(dòng)價(jià)格走勢(shì)的似乎是更大范圍的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩。

分析師們指出：“今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景充滿挑戰(zhàn)，我們的分析師預(yù)測(cè)今年全球?qū)嶋HGDP同比增長率僅為2.0%，低于2022年的3.1%和2021年的6.0%。”

分析師們補(bǔ)充說：“成熟市場的下滑幅度最大，今年成熟市場的增長率將放緩至0.9%，這反映出美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的輕度衰退和歐元區(qū)增長的急劇減速。”

分析師們接著表示：“今年以來，這兩個(gè)市場的高頻數(shù)據(jù)普遍出人意料地上行，而銀行業(yè)的壓力已經(jīng)消退，對(duì)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)健康影響不大。”

EIA，渣打銀行，美國銀行全球研究的預(yù)測(cè)

在5月9日發(fā)布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)報(bào)告中，美國能源信息署(EIA)下調(diào)了今年和明年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格的平均預(yù)期。

最新的STEO報(bào)告顯示，EIA目前預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格將平均為每桶78.65美元，2024年為每桶74.47美元。EIA在4月份發(fā)布的上一份STEO報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)，今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格將平均為每桶85.01美元，2024年為每桶81.21美元。

渣打銀行在同一天發(fā)表的另一份報(bào)告中透露，該行目前預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油價(jià)格將平均每桶91美元，明年平均每桶98美元，2025年平均每桶109美元。渣打銀行在1月份發(fā)給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的另一份報(bào)告中也做出了同樣的布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)。

在本周發(fā)給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的另一份報(bào)告中，美國銀行全球研究透露，它已下調(diào)了對(duì)今年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格的預(yù)期。

美國銀行全球研究在報(bào)告中表示：“由于負(fù)面的宏觀趨勢(shì)將放大未來的需求疲軟，我們將今年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)至每桶80美元。”

美國銀行全球研究在報(bào)告中補(bǔ)充說：“即便如此，我們?nèi)詫?024年布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)維持在每桶90美元，因?yàn)槲覀兿嘈沤?jīng)合組織的需求最終會(huì)改善，而歐佩克+可能會(huì)繼續(xù)積極主動(dòng)地管理供應(yīng)。”

到目前為止，今年布倫特原油的最高收盤價(jià)為1月23日的每桶88.19美元。到目前為止，今年布倫特原油的最低收盤價(jià)是5月3日的每桶72.33美元。在撰寫本文時(shí)，布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶74.70美元。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

BMI Reveals Latest Brent Oil Price Forecasts

BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has revealed its latest Brent oil price forecasts through to 2027 in a new report sent to Rigzone.

According to the report, BMI sees the Brent price averaging $85 per barrel in 2023, $83 per barrel in both 2024 and 2025, and $80 per barrel in both 2026 and 2027. The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also published in the report and which BMI is a contributor to, sees the Brent price averaging $86 per barrel this year, $87 per barrel in 2024, $85 per barrel in 2025, $79 per barrel in 2026, and $71 per barrel in 2027.

In a report sent to Rigzone on April 3, Fitch Solutions projected that Brent would average $85 per barrel this year, $83 per barrel in both 2024 and 2025, and $80 per barrel in both 2026 and 2027. The Bloomberg Consensus in that report saw Brent averaging $87 per barrel this year, $88 per barrel in 2024, $82 per barrel in 2025, $80 per barrel in 2026, and $75 per barrel in 2027. Fitch Solutions previously expected Brent to average $90 per barrel in 2023, its April report highlighted.

“This month we have left our Brent crude price forecast unchanged, averaging $85 per barrel for 2023, reflecting a bullish outlook relative to both current spot price levels ($76 per barrel) and the average price performance in the year to date ($82 per barrel),” BMI analysts stated in the latest report.

“Sentiment is currently extremely fragile and investors have become generally deaf to bullish market developments. We expect prices to recover over the second and third quarters, spurred by seasonally stronger demand, production cutbacks by OPEC+ and crude inventory draws,” the analysts added in the report.

“However, slowing global economic growth and expected recessions in the U.S. and EU will weigh to the downside,” the analysts warned.

Short Sellers Regain Control

BMI analysts noted in the recently released report that short sellers have regained control of the market, “driving an 11 percent decline in prices versus their April peak”.

“Over that same period, the number of long positions held by managed money in Brent has dropped by 25 percent, while the number of shorts has soared by 129 percent,” the analysts said in the report.

“The swing in positioning has occurred in the face of an additional 1.16 million barrel per day cut by OPEC+, announced on April 2 and enacted on May 1, a 450,000 barrel per day export outage in Iraq, which began on March 25 and has yet to resume, and over 100,000 barrels per day of oil production losses in Canada, stemming from wildfires early this month,” the analysts added.

“In total, this equates to nearly two percent of global supply being brought offline and yet the response from the market has been relatively muted,” the BMI analysts continued.

While supply side developments should have been supportive of Brent, it is the broader slowing macro backdrop that appears to be driving price action, the analysts noted in the report.

“The economic outlook this year is challenging, with our analysts predicting global real GDP growth of just 2.0 percent year on year, down from 3.1 percent in 2022 and 6.0 percent in 2021,” the analysts noted.

“The declines are being led by developed markets, which are set to see growth slow to just 0.9 percent in 2023, reflecting a shallow recession in the U.S. and a sharp deceleration of growth in the eurozone,” they added.

“High frequency data in both markets has generally surprised to the upside in the YTD, while banking sector stresses have faded, with little impact on broader economic health,” the analysts went on to state.

EIA, Standard Chartered, BofA Global Research

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on May 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its Brent spot price average forecasts for this year and next year.

The EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $78.65 per barrel in 2023 and $74.47 per barrel in 2024, the latest STEO shows. In its previous STEO, which was published in April, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $85.01 per barrel in 2023 and $81.21 per barrel in 2024.

In another report published on the same day, Standard Chartered revealed that it currently sees the Brent price averaging $91 per barrel this year, $98 per barrel next year, and $109 per barrel in 2025. The company made the same Brent price projections in a separate report sent to Rigzone back in January.

In another report sent to Rigzone this week, BofA Global Research revealed that it had reduced its average Brent forecast for this year.

“With negative macro trends poised to amplify demand weakness ahead, we cut our average Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 per barrel in 2023,” BofA Global Research stated in the report.

“Even then, we leave our 2024 Brent crude oil forecast at $90 per barrel because we believe OECD demand will eventually improve while OPEC+ will likely keep proactively and pre-emptively managing supply,” the company added in the report.

Brent’s highest 2023 close, so far, was seen on January 23 at $88.19 per barrel. Its lowest 2023 close, so far, was seen on May 3 at $72.33 per barrel. At the time of writing, the Brent price is trading at $74.70 per barrel.