據(jù)油價網(wǎng)7月3日報道， 澳大利亞工業(yè)、科學(xué)和資源部報道稱，澳大利亞商品出口在過去的財年中因能源價格上漲而大幅增長，但隨著價格回落，預(yù)計將出現(xiàn)下滑。

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2022/2023財年能源和其他資源出口增長了9%，達到了價值約3000億美元（4600億澳元）的歷史最高水平。

然而，這一數(shù)據(jù)在下一個財年預(yù)計將下降15%，降至約2600億美元（3900億澳元），在隨后一年將下降至約2900億美元（3440億澳元）。

根據(jù)EnergyQuest今年早些時候發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，澳大利亞液化天然氣出口在2022年創(chuàng)歷史最高水平達到了8140萬噸，比上一年的出口量增長了0.5%。大部分出口日本，亞洲大國位居第二。

在當(dāng)前財年，由于國際價格下降，液化天然氣出口的價值預(yù)計將下降27%，煤炭出口也預(yù)計下降約40%。

有趣的是，為能源轉(zhuǎn)型提供原料的關(guān)鍵金屬和礦物質(zhì)的出口預(yù)計在本財年保持基本不變，約270億美元（400億澳元），與2022/2023財年數(shù)據(jù)持平。這一水平是2021/2022財年關(guān)鍵金屬出口量的兩倍，該部門表示。

在能源方面，盡管最近有所下降，該部門仍預(yù)測全球價格將保持較高水平。該預(yù)測歸因于對產(chǎn)能大國能源出口的制裁限制。

報告稱：“運輸和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施限制仍然是產(chǎn)能大國能源出口完全轉(zhuǎn)向未被制裁國家的巨大障礙。”報告還補充道：“結(jié)果是全球能源供應(yīng)下降，因為部分產(chǎn)量被滯留。”

報告繼續(xù)指出，除非全球能源需求大幅下降，否則價格將保持高于2022年之前的水平。

胡耀東 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Australian Commodity Exports Set To Fall From Record Highs

Australian commodity exports have surged in the past financial year driven by the rise in energy prices but are set to slump as prices retreat, the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources has reported.

Energy and other resource exports in financial 2022/23 rose by 9%, the data showed, reaching a record-high value of some $300 billion, or A$460 billion.

However, they are set to decline by 15% in the next financial year to about $260 billion, or A$390 billion, falling further in the year after, to about $290 billion, or A$344 billion.

Australian LNG exports hit a record in 2022, reaching 81.4 million tons, which was 0.5% higher than the previous year’s exports. Most of the exports went to Japan, and the biggest country in Asia took second place, according to data from EnergyQuest released earlier this year.

In the current financial year, LNG exports are set to decline by a sizeable 27% in terms of value as international prices have fallen. Coal exports are also expected to decline, by some 40%.

Interestingly, exports of critical metals and minerals for the energy transition are seen remaining largely unchanged in the current fiscal year, at around $27 billion, or $40 billion, which was the level reached in fiscal 2022/23. This was twice the critical metal export level of 2021/22, the ministry said.

In energy specifically, the resources ministry forecast that global prices are set to remain elevated despite the recent decline. It attributed the forecast to constraints the bigger producer's energy exports due to sanctions.

“Transport and infrastructure constraints remain a huge obstacle to the full diversion of its energy exports to nations with no sanctions,” the report said, adding that “The net result is a fall in world energy supply, as some it output is stranded.”

Unless global energy demand declined substantially, the report went on to add, prices will remain higher than before 2022.