據(jù)今日石油網(wǎng)2023年7月24日?qǐng)?bào)道，挪威咨詢公司雷斯塔能源（Rystad）稱，拉丁美洲、中東和北海將成為下一波全球上游油氣投資的關(guān)鍵地區(qū)。Rystad的研究強(qiáng)調(diào)，全球范圍內(nèi)這些投資大幅增加，預(yù)計(jì)今年全球上游油氣支出將達(dá)到大約5700億美元，比去年的水平增加1400億美元。

Rystad供應(yīng)鏈研究主管Audun Martinsen強(qiáng)調(diào)，這一投資激增僅僅是第一波，由各國尋求可靠、負(fù)擔(dān)得起和可持續(xù)的能源推動(dòng)。隨著能源轉(zhuǎn)型的推進(jìn)，以及對(duì)低碳電力的強(qiáng)烈關(guān)注，這一投資激增勢頭可能會(huì)加速，這就需要在國家和區(qū)域市場上擴(kuò)大供應(yīng)鏈。

盡管去年年初的初步預(yù)測估計(jì)全球上游投資到年底將達(dá)到4700億美元，但地緣政治沖突極大地改變了Rystad預(yù)測的前景。對(duì)能源出口實(shí)施制裁，再加上能源價(jià)格和通脹不斷上漲，在全球能源市場引發(fā)了破壞性的連鎖反應(yīng)。因此，修正后的估計(jì)比最初的預(yù)測增加了1000億美元。

值得注意的是，主要在北美和中東地區(qū)，油田服務(wù)的價(jià)值和利用率正在達(dá)到歷史最高水平，預(yù)計(jì)在可預(yù)見的未來油服市場仍將保持緊張狀態(tài)。然而，最顯著的海上市場增長預(yù)計(jì)將來自拉丁美洲、中東和北海。這些地區(qū)海上活動(dòng)的增加需要船只、鉆機(jī)、建筑和海底基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的激增。

預(yù)計(jì)拉丁美洲也將在蓬勃發(fā)展的海上風(fēng)電市場中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用，到2030年前，這個(gè)風(fēng)電市場與碳捕獲、利用和封存(CCUS)的投資預(yù)計(jì)將占全球所有海上投資的近一半。

李峻 譯自 今日石油網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Latin America a key driver in global upstream oil and gas investments: Rystad Energy

Latin America, along with the Middle East and North Sea, is set to be a pivotal region for the next wave of global upstream oil and gas investments, according to Rystad Energy. The study underlines a significant surge in these investments worldwide, with global upstream expenditure expected to reach around US$570 billion this year, an increase of US$140 billion from 2022 levels. 

Audun Martinsen, Head of Supply Chain Research at Rystad Energy, highlighted that this surge in investments is merely the first wave, fuelled by countries seeking reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy sources. As the energy transition advances, with a keen focus on low-carbon power, the momentum will likely accelerate, necessitating supply chain expansion in national and regional markets.

Despite an initial forecast in early 2022 estimating global upstream investments to reach US$470 billion by the end of the year, the unexpected conflict between

The war drastically reshaped Rystad Energy’s outlook. The imposition of sanctions on energy exports, coupled with escalating energy prices and inflation, sparked a disruptive ripple effect across global energy markets. As a result, the revised estimation jumped US$100 billion over the initial forecast.

Notably, the value and utilisation of oilfield services, primarily in North America and the Middle East, are reaching record levels and are predicted to remain tight for the foreseeable future. However, the most significant offshore market growth is anticipated to come from Latin America, the Middle East, and the North Sea. Increased offshore activity in these regions necessitates a surge in vessels, rigs, construction, and subsea infrastructure.

Latin America is also expected to play a crucial role in the burgeoning offshore wind market, which, along with carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS), is projected to constitute nearly half of all offshore investments by 2030.