據(jù)8月8日彭博社報(bào)道稱，今年石油市場上最熱門的交易之一正在持續(xù)進(jìn)行，有可能重塑原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)值架構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀并改變?nèi)蛄鲃討B(tài)勢。

PVM數(shù)據(jù)顯示，倫敦布倫特原油和中東迪拜原油的掉期價(jià)差已大幅下跌，與年初正常交易模式相比，這是一個戲劇性的轉(zhuǎn)變，當(dāng)時價(jià)差處于相當(dāng)高的溢價(jià)水平。周一，油價(jià)下跌了1.60美元/桶，而1月份的溢價(jià)超過了3美元。

全球主要基準(zhǔn)原油相對價(jià)格的波動，可能促使全球石油流動的路線發(fā)生改變，在這種情況下，將大西洋及其周邊地區(qū)生產(chǎn)的石油出售到亞洲市場更為可行。這反過來可能導(dǎo)致一些原油品級的溢價(jià)發(fā)生變化，因?yàn)閬碜圆煌貐^(qū)的買家想購買貨物。

布倫特原油是全球基準(zhǔn)原油，其交易價(jià)格通常高于迪拜原油，因?yàn)槠漭^低的硫含量和較輕的密度往往生產(chǎn)出更高質(zhì)量的燃料。但交易員表示，近幾個月來，沙特阿拉伯等國的減產(chǎn)收緊了中等含硫原油市場。此外，他們補(bǔ)充道，沙特阿拉伯輕質(zhì)原油等品級原油的官方銷售價(jià)格今年也多次上調(diào)，進(jìn)一步支撐了迪拜基準(zhǔn)原油價(jià)格。

相反，自標(biāo)普全球?qū)⒚绹蚖TI添加到可以確定其價(jià)格的原油籃子中以來，與倫敦期貨市場相關(guān)的實(shí)物定價(jià)基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油的可交易量激增。這導(dǎo)致大量美國WTI西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油被提供并基準(zhǔn)交付，影響了遠(yuǎn)期布倫特原油相對于全球等級的估值。

這些變化與這兩個級別之間的價(jià)差以及迪拜相關(guān)合約的交易活動激增相吻合。上個月，布倫特-迪拜價(jià)差的未平倉合約創(chuàng)下歷史新高，比一年前高出67%。

王佳晶 譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Oil’s Hottest Trade Gathers Momentum as Key Spread Goes Negative

One of the hottest trades in the oil market this year is keeping on rolling, with the potential to reshape the value of physical crude cargoes and transform global flows.

The price differential between swaps for London’s Brent and Middle East’s Dubai crude has turned deeply negative, data from brokerage PVM show. It’s a dramatic shift from the start of the year — and normal trading patterns — when the spread was at a sizable premium. It was at a discount of $1.60 a barrel on Monday, compared to more than $3 premium in January.

Fluctuations in the relative prices of key global benchmarks can prompt the rerouting of oil flows across the world and, in this case, make it more viable to sell barrels produced in and around the Atlantic Ocean into Asian markets. That in turn can lead to shifts in the premiums paid for some crude grades as buyers from different locations try to purchase cargoes.

Brent, which is the global benchmark crude, generally trades at a premium to Dubai as its lower sulfur content and lighter density tends to produce higher-quality fuels. But in recent months, production cuts by Saudi Arabia etc. have tightened the medium-sour crude market, traders said. Additionally, Saudi official selling prices of grades such as Arab Light have also been hiked repeatedly this year, further supporting benchmark Dubai prices, they added.

Conversely, the tradeable volume of Dated Brent, a physical pricing benchmark that’s associated with the London futures market, has surged since its publisher S&P Global added US crude to the basket of crudes that can set its price. This has caused a flood of US West Texas Intermediate crude to be offered and delivered into the benchmark, weighing on Dated Brent’s valuation relative to global grades. 

Those shifts have coincided with a jump in trading activity for both the difference between the two grades and in Dubai-related contracts more generally. Open interest on the Brent-Dubai spread hit a record last month, and is 67% higher than a year ago.