????通訊員 據(jù)3月2日CNBC報(bào)道，歐佩克+能源聯(lián)盟將通過(guò)視頻會(huì)議召開(kāi)，以就如何管理市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)達(dá)成共識(shí)。
????在本周的供應(yīng)決定出臺(tái)之際，油價(jià)已反彈至疫情爆發(fā)前的水平，美國(guó)的生產(chǎn)受到嚴(yán)寒的打擊，加上疫情的危機(jī)繼續(xù)籠罩市場(chǎng)。
????分析師普遍預(yù)計(jì)，歐佩克+將在當(dāng)前水平上提高產(chǎn)量，但究竟有多少以及哪些國(guó)家將受到影響仍是個(gè)問(wèn)題。一些全球最具影響力的產(chǎn)油國(guó)將于周四召開(kāi)一場(chǎng)關(guān)鍵會(huì)議，討論取消去年部分減產(chǎn)舉措。
????2020年歐佩克+同意限制石油產(chǎn)量，以提振油價(jià)，因?yàn)閲?yán)格的公共衛(wèi)生措施適逢前所未有的燃料需求沖擊。
????歐佩克事實(shí)上的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沙特阿拉伯公開(kāi)鼓勵(lì)石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)在生產(chǎn)政策上保持“極其謹(jǐn)慎”的態(tài)度，警告該組織不要自滿(mǎn)，因?yàn)樾枰獙で髴?yīng)對(duì)仍然在全球范圍內(nèi)蔓延的疫情危機(jī)。
????據(jù)報(bào)道，在上月的一次行業(yè)活動(dòng)上，沙特能源部長(zhǎng)阿卜杜勒阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼對(duì)那些試圖預(yù)測(cè)歐佩克+下一步行動(dòng)的人說(shuō):“不要試圖預(yù)測(cè)不可預(yù)測(cè)的事情。”
????PVM石油協(xié)會(huì)(PVM Oil Associates)分析師Tamas Varga表示，他認(rèn)為歐佩克和非歐佩克合作伙伴在重新平衡市場(chǎng)方面做了“驚人的工作”。然而，盡管全球石油需求正在復(fù)蘇，但他警告稱(chēng)，復(fù)蘇仍“非常、非常脆弱”。
????值得關(guān)注的是俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯。俄羅斯的盈虧平衡預(yù)算比沙特低得多，所以這兩個(gè)國(guó)家在觀點(diǎn)上存在差異，不過(guò)，沙特和俄羅斯都會(huì)“如愿以?xún)敗薄?/p>
????2020年，歐佩克+最初同意創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地將石油日產(chǎn)量削減970萬(wàn)桶，隨后將減產(chǎn)幅度降低至770萬(wàn)桶，最終從1月份開(kāi)始將減產(chǎn)規(guī)模削減至720萬(wàn)桶。自2月初至3月，歐佩克主要成員國(guó)沙特阿拉伯已自愿額外減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶。
????俄羅斯副總理亞歷山大 諾瓦克(Alexander Novak)暗示，莫斯科有意增加石油供應(yīng)，稱(chēng)市場(chǎng)已達(dá)到平衡。
????SEB首席大宗商品分析師Bjarne Schieldrop在一份研究報(bào)告中表示：“俄羅斯希望盡快恢復(fù)正常生產(chǎn)，而沙特希望在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)享受高油價(jià)，并讓市場(chǎng)保持緊張狀態(tài)，而不是放松狀態(tài)。我們認(rèn)為兩家公司都能得到自己想要的東西。”
????他補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)，俄羅斯可能獲準(zhǔn)進(jìn)一步增產(chǎn)，而沙特阿拉伯將“部分或可能全部”恢復(fù)每日100萬(wàn)桶的額外減產(chǎn)。
????沙特阿拉伯的聲明表明他們是持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度的。在新冠肺炎疫苗真正對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和石油需求產(chǎn)生作用之前，與其說(shuō)市場(chǎng)會(huì)出現(xiàn)供過(guò)于求的情況，不如保持一點(diǎn)緊張情緒。因此，即將舉行的歐佩克+會(huì)議不太可能對(duì)4月份供應(yīng)造成影響，因?yàn)榭傮w結(jié)果很可能會(huì)讓市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)略微短缺，而不是過(guò)剩。
????值得一提的是，歐佩克+還沒(méi)有準(zhǔn)備好改變當(dāng)前戰(zhàn)略。周二上午，國(guó)際基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格報(bào)每桶63.01美元，跌幅近1.1%，而美國(guó)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油期貨價(jià)格報(bào)每桶60.02美元，跌幅超過(guò)1%。要知道，石油價(jià)格上月攀升至13個(gè)月高點(diǎn)。
????當(dāng)前油價(jià)似乎延續(xù)了上周開(kāi)始的跌勢(shì)，原因是市場(chǎng)預(yù)期歐佩克+可能會(huì)增加全球供應(yīng)。
????Rystad Energy的分析師路易絲·迪克森(Louise Dickson)表示:“我們的預(yù)期是，按照他們?cè)?020年12月宣布的政策協(xié)議，油價(jià)將會(huì)上漲。也就是說(shuō)，日產(chǎn)量增幅不超過(guò)50萬(wàn)桶。我們希望這項(xiàng)政策仍然有效。”歐佩克理論上可以增加130萬(wàn)桶/天的產(chǎn)量，但我們認(rèn)為這次不會(huì)過(guò)度調(diào)整。”
????迪克森強(qiáng)調(diào)“從市場(chǎng)角度看，俄羅斯將積聚動(dòng)能，但我們沒(méi)有看到完全的轉(zhuǎn)變。去年，歐佩克+一直牢牢地掌握在沙特阿拉伯的控制之下，指導(dǎo)政策，做出決定，發(fā)號(hào)施令等等。而且在對(duì)市場(chǎng)和供應(yīng)進(jìn)行了一年的調(diào)查之后，我認(rèn)為，歐佩克+不會(huì)因?yàn)橐粫r(shí)沖動(dòng)而改變路線，將布倫特原油價(jià)格維持在65美元/桶，或者讓石油市場(chǎng)日益趨緊。”
????分析師預(yù)計(jì)，歐佩克+將討論在周四允許至多每天130萬(wàn)桶的原油重返市場(chǎng)。
????王佳晶 摘譯自 CNBC
????原文如下：
????Saudi and Russia are at loggerheads again, but OPEC meeting ‘unlikely to ruin the oil party’
????OPEC and its non-OPEC partners, an energy alliance sometimes referred to as OPEC+, will convene via videoconference in a bid to reach consensus over how to manage supply to the market.
????This week’s supply decision comes at a time when oil prices have rebounded to pre-virus levels, production in the U.S. has taken a hit from freezing storms and the coronavirus pandemic continues to cloud the outlook.
????Analysts broadly expect OPEC+ to hike output from current levels, but questions remain over how much exactly and which countries will be affected.
????A group of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers will hold a crucial meeting on Thursday to discuss reversing some of the output cuts it made last year.
????OPEC and its non-OPEC partners, an energy alliance sometimes referred to as OPEC+, will convene via videoconference in a bid to reach consensus over how to manage supply to the market.
????The group last year agreed to restrict the amount of oil it produces in an effort to prop up oil prices as strict public health measures coincided with an unprecedented fuel demand shock.
????This week’s supply decision comes at a time when oil prices have rebounded to pre-virus levels, production in the U.S. has taken a hit from freezing storms and the coronavirus pandemic continues to cloud the outlook.
????OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia has publicly encouraged allied partners to remain “extremely cautious” on production policy, warning the group against complacency as it seeks to navigate the ongoing Covid-19 crisis.
????Non-OPEC leader Russia, meanwhile, has indicated it wants to push ahead with a supply increase.
????Analysts broadly expect OPEC+ to hike output from current levels, but questions remain over how much exactly and which countries will be affected.
????At an industry event last month, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman reportedly said to those trying to foresee the energy alliance’s next move: “Don’t try to predict the unpredictable.”
????Both Saudi and Russia ‘will get what they want’
????Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told CNBC via telephone that he believed OPEC and non-OPEC partners had done an “amazing job” in rebalancing the market.
????However, while the global oil demand is recovering, he warned that the recovery is still “very, very fragile.”
????“What really matters here is Russia and Saudi Arabia. The breakeven price for Russia’s budget is much lower than that of Saudi Arabia, so you will see a kind of gap in the views between these two countries,” Varga said.
????OPEC+ initially agreed to cut oil production by a record of 9.7 million barrels per day last year, before easing cuts to 7.7 million and eventually 7.2 million from January. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has since taken on voluntary cuts of 1 million from the beginning of February through March.
????Alexander Novak, Russia’s deputy prime minister, appeared to signal Moscow’s intent for a supply increase last month, claiming the market has already balanced.
????“Russia wants to move back towards normal production as quickly as possible while Saudi Arabia wants to enjoy high prices a little while longer and rather keep the market on the tight side than the loose side. We think both will get what they want,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB, said in a research note.
????Russia will likely be allowed to increase output further, he added, while Saudi Arabia will return “some or potentially all” of its 1 million barrels per day unilateral cut.
????Analysts expect OPEC+ to discuss allowing as much as 1.3 million barrels per day back into the market on Thursday.
????“Statements from Saudi Arabia indicates that they are on the cautious side. Rather to keep it a little tight a little too long than to run into an oversupply before Covid-19 vaccines have truly made their magic on global economic activity and oil demand,” Schieldrop said.
????“The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is thus unlikely to ruin the oil party with respect to April supply as the total outcome is likely going to leave the market slightly short rather than in surplus.”
????OPEC+ not yet ready to switch course
????International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $63.01 a barrel on Tuesday morning, almost 1.1% lower, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures stood at $60.02, down more than 1%.
????Oil prices, having climbed to a 13-month peak last month, appeared to extend losses that began last week on expectations that OPEC+ may be set to increase global supply.
????“Our expectation is that they are going to rise in line with their previous policy deal which was announced in December of 2020. And that is to not increase production more than 500,000 barrels per day. We expect that policy to still be valid,” Louise Dickson, analyst at Rystad Energy, told CNBC via telephone.
????She added that OPEC could, in theory, increase production by 1.3 million barrels per day, but “we don’t think they are going to overshoot this time around.”
????“Russia will build up momentum in their market view, but we don’t see a complete switchover. For the last year, OPEC+ has been really firmly under the reins of Saudi Arabia, guiding the policy, making the calls, calling the shots, etc. And I don’t think that, after a year of such market and supply diligence, the group is ready to switch course just on a whim of $65 Brent or an increasingly tighter oil market,” she said.
