???? 據(jù)今日油價(jià)2月23日?qǐng)?bào)道，高盛(Goldman Sachs)現(xiàn)在對(duì)油價(jià)的看法更為樂(lè)觀，預(yù)計(jì)布倫特(Brent)原油價(jià)格將在今年第三季度達(dá)到每桶75美元，原因是市場(chǎng)再平衡速度加快、預(yù)期石油庫(kù)存下降，以及交易員對(duì)沖通脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
????Forexlive援引該投行分析師周日的一份報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，布蘭特原油價(jià)格將在今年第二季度達(dá)到每桶70美元，第三季將達(dá)到每桶75美元。高盛將第二季度和第三季度的預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)每桶10美元。
????高盛表示:“由于歐佩克+產(chǎn)量的增加低于我們普遍預(yù)期的需求復(fù)蘇預(yù)期，在預(yù)計(jì)將是冬季黑暗時(shí)期的快速重新平衡之后，今年春季的供應(yīng)缺口將擴(kuò)大。”
????分析師指出："我們相信，當(dāng)前為迎接通貨再膨脹環(huán)境而進(jìn)行的重新調(diào)整，將支撐此次額外的升勢(shì)。投資者轉(zhuǎn)向石油，購(gòu)買滯后的實(shí)物資產(chǎn)，這些資產(chǎn)受益于刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)措施推動(dòng)的復(fù)蘇，并顯示出無(wú)與倫比的對(duì)沖通脹沖擊的能力。"
????高盛預(yù)計(jì)，庫(kù)存減少將導(dǎo)致油價(jià)更快、更達(dá)幅度的反彈。周一早盤(pán)，布倫特原油價(jià)格上漲2%，報(bào)每桶64.18美元，WTI原油價(jià)格再次突破每桶60美元大關(guān)口，上漲2.6%，報(bào)每桶60.78美元。
????本月初，高盛在一份報(bào)告中對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)發(fā)出了另一個(gè)利好消息，稱預(yù)計(jì)今年8月前全球石油需求將恢復(fù)至疫情前的每日1億桶水平。
????根據(jù)高盛的數(shù)據(jù)，2020年第四季度石油市場(chǎng)的供應(yīng)缺口為230萬(wàn)桶。由于2021年初的供應(yīng)仍然緊張，盡管預(yù)期需求復(fù)蘇緩慢，但近期價(jià)格前景光明。
????王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)
????原文如下：
????Goldman Sachs Sees $75 Oil In Q3 2021
????Goldman Sachs is now even more bullish on oil, expecting Brent Crude prices to hit $75 a barrel in the third quarter this year, on the back of faster market rebalancing, lower expected inventories, and traders hedging against inflation.
????In a note on Sunday, cited by Forexlive, the investment bank’s analysts forecast Brent Crude prices reaching the $70 a barrel mark during the second quarter of this year, and hitting $75 in the third quarter. Goldman Sachs is thus lifting its previous Q2 and Q3 forecasts by $10 per barrel.
????“Faster re-balancing during what was expected to be the dark days of winter will be followed by a widening deficit this spring as the ramp-up in OPEC+ production lags our above-consensus demand recovery forecast,” said Goldman Sachs.
????“We further believe that this additional rally will be supported by the current repositioning for a reflationary environment with investors turning to oil, buying a lagging real asset that benefits from a stimulus-driven recovery and has demonstrated an unmatched ability to hedge against inflation shocks,” the analysts noted.
????Goldman expects the lower inventories will lead to an oil price rally sooner and at higher price levels.
????On Monday morning, Brent Crude prices were up by 2 percent at $64.18 at 9:54 a.m. ET, while WTI Crude again moved above the $60 per barrel mark, having risen 2.6 percent at $60.78.
????Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs had another bullish message for oil markets, saying in a note that it expected global oil demand to recover to pre-pandemic levels of 100 million bpd by August this year.
????According to Goldman, the oil market was in a deficit of 2.3 million bpd in the final quarter of 2020. With supply still tight at the start of 2021, the immediate future for prices is bright despite expectations for a slow demand recovery.
