???? 據(jù)ICIS網(wǎng)站2月3日消息 美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）周三表示，在最佳情況下，到2023年，美國(guó)工業(yè)行業(yè)的石油和其他液體消費(fèi)量（主要用作塑料生產(chǎn)的原料）可能恢復(fù)至疫情前的水平。
????在《2021年年度能源展望》中，EIA估計(jì)，到2029年，美國(guó)能源消費(fèi)總量應(yīng)恢復(fù)到2019年的水平。
????EIA負(fù)責(zé)能源分析的助理行政官Angelina LaRose表示，美國(guó)工業(yè)行業(yè)消耗的能源比任何其他終端使用行業(yè)都多，預(yù)計(jì)2020年至2050年間，美國(guó)工業(yè)行業(yè)的能源消耗增長(zhǎng)速度將是任何其他行業(yè)的近兩倍。
????EIA表示，從產(chǎn)量來(lái)看，油價(jià)將繼續(xù)是鉆井活動(dòng)的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力，美國(guó)將繼續(xù)是全球重要的原油和天然氣供應(yīng)國(guó)。
????從2023年開(kāi)始，到2050年，石油和天然氣產(chǎn)量將保持在歷史高位。預(yù)計(jì)2050年布倫特原油價(jià)格將達(dá)到95美元/桶。
????EIA的預(yù)測(cè)取決于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的速度，因此預(yù)測(cè)是在基準(zhǔn)、最壞和最佳情況下進(jìn)行。
????EIA稱(chēng)，致密油主要推動(dòng)了石油產(chǎn)量前景的增長(zhǎng)，尤其是二疊紀(jì)盆地的Wolfcamp區(qū)塊和Williston盆地的Bakken區(qū)塊。
????EIA預(yù)測(cè)，2020-2050年間，由于天然氣發(fā)電所占份額相對(duì)持平，以及煤炭和核能發(fā)電所占份額下降一半，可再生能源發(fā)電所占份額將增加。
????王磊 摘譯自 ICIS
????原文如下：
????US industrial energy consumption to return to ’19 levels faster than other sectors – EIA
????US consumption of petroleum and other liquids from the industrial sector, primarily for use as feedstocks in the production of plastics, could return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 in a best-case scenario, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.
????In its 2021 Annual Energy Outlook, the EIA estimated total US energy consumption should return to 2019 levels by 2029.
????Angelina LaRose, EIA assistant administrator for energy analysis, said the US industrial sector consumes more energy than any other end-use sector, and its energy use is projected to grow nearly twice as fast as any other sector between 2020 and 2050.
????Looking at production, oil price will continue to be the primary driver of drilling activity, the EIA said, with the US continuing to be an important global provider of crude oil and natural gas.
????Starting in 2023, oil and natural gas production in the reference case remains at historically high levels through 2050. The base case anticipates the Brent crude price at $95/bbl in 2050.
????The EIA's forecasts depend on the speed of economic growth, so projections are presented in base-, worst- and best-case scenarios.
????Tight oil is primarily driving the growth in the oil production outlook, the EIA said, specifically from the Wolfcamp play in the Permian Basin and the Bakken play in the Williston Basin.
????The EIA forecasts increased share of electricity production from renewables from 2020-2050 as the share of natural gas-fired generation remains relatively flat, and as the contribution from the coal and nuclear fleets drop by half.
