???? 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)3月16日消息：美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)七個(gè)最大頁(yè)巖地區(qū)的石油產(chǎn)量將在4月份下降4.6萬(wàn)桶/天，但最大和最多產(chǎn)的二疊紀(jì)盆地產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將在下個(gè)月實(shí)現(xiàn)增產(chǎn)。
????根據(jù)EIA的鉆井產(chǎn)能報(bào)告，下個(gè)月頁(yè)巖產(chǎn)量將下降4.6萬(wàn)桶/天，至745.8萬(wàn)桶/天。EIA最新預(yù)測(cè)顯示，除二疊紀(jì)以外的所有產(chǎn)油區(qū)預(yù)計(jì)將在4月份減產(chǎn)，但二疊紀(jì)盆地的產(chǎn)量將增加1.1萬(wàn)桶/天，至429.2萬(wàn)桶/天。
????盡管二疊紀(jì)盆地預(yù)計(jì)將增加石油產(chǎn)量，但下個(gè)月Niobara和Eagle Ford地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量降幅最大，分別為1.5萬(wàn)桶/天。從3月到4月，阿納達(dá)科地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)下降1.4萬(wàn)桶/天，而第二大產(chǎn)油區(qū)Bakken產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)下降1.2萬(wàn)桶/天，至111.6萬(wàn)桶/天，這是自去年7月以來(lái)的最低水平。阿巴拉契亞地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將小幅下降1000桶/天，而Haynesville地層的產(chǎn)量將保持平穩(wěn)。
????總的來(lái)說(shuō)，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油運(yùn)營(yíng)商并不急于提高產(chǎn)量，即使WTI原油價(jià)格在65美元/桶左右將使大部分頁(yè)巖地區(qū)的開(kāi)采有利可圖。
????雖然今年油價(jià)有所回升，但大多數(shù)美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣上市公司仍堅(jiān)持嚴(yán)格的資本紀(jì)律。大型上市公司承諾，任何多余的現(xiàn)金流都將用于向股東支付額外股息。在頁(yè)巖地區(qū)追逐鉆井和生產(chǎn)記錄的同時(shí)，股東們已經(jīng)看到了未來(lái)幾年微薄的回報(bào)。
????然而，規(guī)模較小的私營(yíng)石油公司正受益于油價(jià)上漲，因?yàn)樗鼈冑嵢‖F(xiàn)金的主要方式是增產(chǎn)。這可能會(huì)再次破壞歐佩克+集團(tuán)的石油管理政策。
????馮娟 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
????原文如下：
????Permian Production Set To Rise Despite Shale Decline
????Oil production from the seven largest U.S. shale regions is set to decline by 46,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April, but output in the biggest and most prolific basin, the Permian, is expected to eke out a production gain next month, EIA data showed.
????According to the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report, shale production is set to drop by 46,000 bpd to 7.458 million bpd next month. All oil-producing regions except for the Permian are expected to see their production drop in April, but the Permian basin should see output rise by 11,000 bpd to 4.292 million bpd, EIA’s latest estimates show.
????While the Permian is expected to increase its oil production, the Niobara and Eagle Ford regions are set for the biggest declines, by 15,000 bpd each, next month. Production in the Anadarko region is seen down 14,000 bpd from March to April, while production in the second most prolific region, the Bakken, is expected down by 12,000 bpd to 1.116 million bpd, the lowest level since July last year. Output in the Appalachia region is forecast slightly down by 1,000 bpd, and production in the Haynesville formation is set to remain flat.
????Overall, U.S. shale operators are not rushing to boost their production, even though WTI Crude prices at around $65 per barrel would make most, if not all, shale regions profitable to drill.
????Most public U.S. shale firms continue to vow strict capital discipline, although oil prices have rallied this year. Major listed companies promise that any excess cash flow will go to additional payouts to shareholders, who have seen years of meager returns while the shale patch was chasing drilling and production records.
????However, smaller privately held oil firms are benefiting from higher oil prices as their primary way of generating cash is increased production. This could spoil the oil management policy of the OPEC+ group again.
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