???? 據(jù)能源之聲3月29日消息，頂級(jí)金融顧問(wèn)機(jī)構(gòu)伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析師預(yù)計(jì)，液化天然氣(LNG)市場(chǎng)將趨緊，因?yàn)橛邢薜墓?yīng)增長(zhǎng)將滿足強(qiáng)勁的需求，尤其是來(lái)自亞洲的需求，這可能推高價(jià)格。

????伯恩斯坦表示：“盡管經(jīng)歷了2020年的動(dòng)蕩，但去年液化天然氣需求增長(zhǎng)是積極的，這凸顯了該行業(yè)的韌性。鑒于供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)有限，再加上強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，我們預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)3年市場(chǎng)將趨緊，這將進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)亞洲的液化天然氣需求。”

????“需求增長(zhǎng)主要來(lái)自亞洲和中東，而其他地區(qū)的進(jìn)口量則持平或下降。長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，由于天然氣驅(qū)動(dòng)的政策支持能源結(jié)構(gòu)中更高的天然氣滲透率，我們預(yù)計(jì)非經(jīng)合組織亞洲液化天然氣市場(chǎng)(印度、馬來(lái)西亞、巴基斯坦和泰國(guó))的消費(fèi)量將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。”

????盡管受全球疫情影響，但2020年全球LNG需求同比增長(zhǎng)1%至3.59億噸。在此期間，亞洲液化天然氣進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng)了3.5%，而歐洲進(jìn)口下降了4%。

????伯恩斯坦預(yù)計(jì)，2021年全球需求將增長(zhǎng)6%，因?yàn)閬喼奘袌?chǎng)繼續(xù)推動(dòng)煤炭向天然氣轉(zhuǎn)換的需求，因?yàn)樗鼈兊哪茉唇Y(jié)構(gòu)正在脫碳。受經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇、煤轉(zhuǎn)氣政策和歐洲市場(chǎng)天然氣供應(yīng)下降的推動(dòng)，2021年LNG需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)約2000萬(wàn)噸，這將促進(jìn)LNG進(jìn)口。

????2020/21年LNG產(chǎn)能增加將達(dá)到3000萬(wàn)噸/年，可能足以滿足今年的需求增長(zhǎng)，但伯恩斯坦預(yù)計(jì)，由于缺乏新項(xiàng)目，未來(lái)市場(chǎng)將趨緊。盡管卡塔爾已經(jīng)宣布，將在2021年最終批準(zhǔn)世界上最大的LNG擴(kuò)張項(xiàng)目，但該項(xiàng)目要到本世紀(jì)20年代中后期才會(huì)投產(chǎn)。到本世紀(jì)20年代中后期，卡塔爾的LNG產(chǎn)能將從7700萬(wàn)噸/年擴(kuò)大到1.26億噸/年。

????伯恩斯坦表示：“雖然這是一個(gè)巨大的增長(zhǎng)，但未來(lái)三年的供應(yīng)將是有限的。在未來(lái)三年，每年的供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)將不超過(guò)1000萬(wàn)噸/年，在需求歷史上以6-7%的復(fù)合年增長(zhǎng)率增長(zhǎng)的市場(chǎng)中，這大約是3%的增長(zhǎng)。因此，我們預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)市場(chǎng)將趨緊。”

????“這將會(huì)導(dǎo)致未來(lái)幾年LNG現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格上漲，直到2020年代中期出現(xiàn)下一個(gè)液化天然氣過(guò)剩時(shí)期。我們?cè)贚NG領(lǐng)域的首選是錢尼爾、伍德賽德、Oil Search、桑托斯、Inpex和殼牌。”

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????裘寅 編譯自 能源之聲

????原文如下：

????Strong Asian LNG demand set to tighten mid-term market

????Analysts at Bernstein see tighter liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets ahead as limited supply growth meets strong demand, particularly from Asia, which could push prices higher.

????“Despite the turmoil of 2020, LNG demand growth was positive last year which highlights the resilience of the industry. We see a tighter market ahead over the next three years given limited supply growth, coupled with a strong economic recovery, which will further drive LNG demand in Asia,” the investment research house said in its latest note.

????“Demand growth came primarily from Asia and Middle East, while other regions experienced flat or declining imports. Longer term, we expect consumption will continue to grow for non-OECD Asian LNG markets of China, India, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand due to gas-driven policies that support higher gas penetration within the energy mix,” said Bernstein.

????Global LNG demand expanded by 1% year-on-year to 359 millon tonnes in 2020, despite the COVID pandemic. Asian LNG imports increased by 3.5% over the period, while European imports fell 4%.

????Bernstein expects 6% global demand expansion in 2021, as Asian markets continue to drive demand on coal to gas switching, as they decarbonise their energy mix. LNG demand in 2021 is estimated to expand by around 20 millon tonnes per year (mtpy) driven by economic recovery, coal to gas switching policies and decline in gas supply in European markets which will boost LNG imports.

????With around 30 mtpy of LNG capacity coming online in 2020/21 there may just be enough to meet demand growth this year, however Bernstein is predicting a tighter market ahead given a lack of new projects. Although Qatar has announced final investment approval on the world’s largest LNG expansion in 2021, this will not come onstream until the mid to late 2020s. Qatar is expanding its LNG capacity from 77 mtpy to 126 mtpy by mid-late 2020s.

????“While this is a large increase, supply over the next three years will be limited. Annual supply growth will be no more than 10 mtpy over the next three years, which is circa 3% growth in a market where demand has historically grown at 6-7% CAGR. As such we expect a tighter market ahead,” said Bernstein.

????“This should lead to higher LNG spot pricing in the next few years before the next glut of LNG emerges in the mid-2020s. Our top picks in LNG are Cheniere, Woodside, Oil Search, Santos, Inpex and Shell,” added the research firm.

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