據美國鉆井網站2021年5月4日報道，由于全球石油需求回升，油價很有可能在未來幾個月上升至每桶70美元。

　　這是挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的石油分析師路易絲·迪克森在周一發給美國鉆井網站的一份聲明中說的。迪克森在聲明中強調，盡管印度石油需求下降，但油價很有可能實現價格里程碑。

　　迪克森說：“由于新冠肺炎疫情大流行限制了流動性，到2021年5月，印度對包括汽油、柴油和航空燃油在內的石油產品的總需求將降至每天400萬桶以下。”

　　迪克森補充說：“印度的石油需求低于每天400萬桶，這令人擔憂，遠低于印度新冠病毒疫情爆發前每天500萬桶的水平，但與去年4月下降到每天310萬桶相比，仍然相當有彈性。”

　　Rystad的代表接著說：“印度的緊張情緒目前正在阻止油價進一步上漲，但隨著6月交貨的原油現在成為焦點，油價可能會因季節性石油需求增加而上漲，而且隨著全球大多數地區取消對Covid-19的限制，這將對需求提供更多的支持。”

　　迪克森指出，從現在到6月底，Rystad預計全球石油需求每天至少會增加300萬桶。他說，這將抵消印度市場的混亂狀態，也足夠容納歐佩克+額外增加的原油產量。

　　在撰寫本文時，布倫特原油價格為每桶68.14美元。布倫特原油在3月上旬有幾天收于每桶70美元下方。

　　根據世界衛生組織的最新信息，自4月15日以來，印度每天有20多萬例Covid-19確證病例，自4月21日以來，印度每天有2000多人死亡。

　　李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

　　原文如下：

　　Very Likely Oil Will Rise Towards $70

　　It’s very likely that oil will claw back towards $70 per barrel in the coming months as the global demand uptick tips the scale to positive.

　　That’s according to Rystad Energy oil analyst Louise Dickson, who made the comment in a statement sent to Rigzone on Monday. Dickson highlighted in the statement that it was very likely the price milestone would be achieved despite a demand downside in India.

　　“The total demand for Indian oil products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, will plunge below the four million barrel per day threshold in May 2021 as new Covid-19 restrictions pinch mobility,” Dickson said.

　　“Indian oil demand below four million barrels per day is cause for concern and far below the pre-virus levels of about five million barrels per day, but still rather resilient if compared to the drop to 3.1 million barrels per day back in April 2020,” Dickson added.

　　“India jitters are currently stopping oil prices from rising further but, with June-delivery barrels now in focus, prices may increase on seasonal oil appetite additions and as the removal of Covid-19 restrictions in most of the world will lend more demand support,” the Rystad representative went on to say.

　　Dickson noted that between now and the end of June, Rystad sees oil demand jumping by at least three million barrels per day. Dickson said this will offset the India snarl, as well as be plenty to accommodate extra OPEC+ barrels.

　　At the time of writing, Brent crude prices stood at $68.14 per barrel. Brent closed just below $70 per barrel on several days during the first half of March.

　　According to the latest information from the World Health Organization, there have been more than 200,000 cases per day of Covid-19 in India since April 15, and more than 2,000 deaths per day since April 21.

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