據油價網6月18日消息：歐佩克消息人士在該組織政策會議結束時表示，盡管油價高達70美元，但預計美國頁巖油生產商今年不會大幅提高原油產量，因為它們將繼續專注于規范的資本支出，并向投資者返還更多現金。

　　歐佩克經濟技術智囊團經濟委員會本周召開會議，評估全球石油市場和全球經濟形勢。該委員會還將審查投資、復蘇預期、原油生產的短期和長期前景等議題。

　　歐佩克消息人士稱，其中一次會議有外部行業專家參加，會議的重點是美國頁巖和美國以外的供應前景。普遍的觀點是，盡管油價高企，但頁巖地區不會急于加快活動和生產率，從而導致市場供過于求和油價下跌。

　　預計2022年的產量增長將在50萬桶/天至130萬桶/天之間。

　　近幾個月來，美國石油日產量一直徘徊在1,100萬桶左右，較2020年初的創紀錄高點下降了200萬桶。

　　美國頁巖生產商第一季度財報和電話會議突顯出此前聞所未聞的上市公司的克制。上市生產商創造了創紀錄的現金流，但他們并沒有將其中大部分再投資于鉆探。相反，頁巖運營商現在正將現金流用于減少債務和回報股東。

　　據消息人士稱，投資紀律是本周會議的重點之一。

　　如果今年美國經濟增長有限的預測能夠實現，那么美國對頁巖氣的限制將使歐佩克管理石油市場供應的工作變得容易得多。

　　其中一家向歐佩克提供預測的公司的消息人士稱：“歐佩克和沙特阿拉伯目前擁有很大的權力。”

　　馮娟 摘譯自 油價網

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC Doesn’t Expect More U.S. Shale Oil Production

　　Despite $70 oil, U.S. shale producers are not expected to significantly raise crude production this year as they continue to be focused on disciplined capital expenditures and returning more cash to investors, OPEC sources told Reuters at the end of policy meetings of the organization.

　　OPEC’s economic and technical think-tank, the Economic Commission Board, met this week to take stock of the situation on the global oil market and the global economy. The board was also expected to review topics such as investment, expectations about recovery, and short- and long-term prospects of crude oil production.

　　One of the meetings, attended by external industry experts, focused on U.S. shale and the prospects of supply out of the United States, sources at OPEC told Reuters. The general view was that the shale patch will not be rushing into accelerating activity and production rates despite the high oil prices—something it has regularly done in the past, contributing to market oversupply and lower oil prices.

　　For 2022, the views range from production growth of between 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 1.3 million bpd.

　　U.S. production has been hovering at around 11 million bpd in recent months, down by 2 million bpd from the record highs early in 2020, before the pandemic slammed demand and crashed oil prices.

　　The first-quarter earnings and conference calls of U.S. producers highlighted a previously unheard-of restraint from public shale firms. Listed producers generated record cash flows, but they are not reinvesting most of those back to drilling. Instead, shale operators are now channeling cash flow toward reducing debts and rewarding shareholders.

　　According to Reuters’ sources, the investment discipline was one of the highlights of the meetings this week.

　　The U.S. shale restraint makes OPEC’s job of managing oil supply to the market much easier, if forecasts of limited U.S. growth this year pan out.

　　“OPEC and Saudi Arabia have a lot of power at this time,” a source at one of the companies which provided forecasts to OPEC told Reuters.

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