據(jù)6月30日Neftegaz.RU.報(bào)道，阿塞拜疆新聞社分析稱，美國能源信息署（EIA）調(diào)整了對(duì)阿塞拜疆2021-2022年日均石油產(chǎn)量的預(yù)測(cè)。
在6月份發(fā)布的報(bào)告中，EIA將阿塞拜疆2021年的石油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)1萬桶，至73萬桶。值得注意的是，根據(jù)5月份發(fā)布的報(bào)告，該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)2021年的石油日產(chǎn)量為74萬桶。該機(jī)構(gòu)還將阿塞拜疆2022年的石油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)期從79萬桶下調(diào)至78萬桶。
根據(jù)EIA短期能源展望報(bào)告，2021年第一季度阿塞拜疆的平均石油日產(chǎn)量為74萬桶。與此同時(shí)，預(yù)計(jì)今年第二季度該國的平均石油日產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到71萬桶。要知道，2020年的日均石油產(chǎn)量為70萬桶，2020年第一、第二、第三和第四季度的平均石油日產(chǎn)量分別為76萬、69萬、66萬和69萬桶。
自2020年4月起，歐佩克+成員國就減少石油日產(chǎn)量達(dá)成協(xié)議。
此前，阿塞拜疆支持歐佩克+在5月、6月和7月達(dá)成的將原油產(chǎn)量提高到110萬桶的協(xié)議，該協(xié)議是在第15屆部長(zhǎng)級(jí)會(huì)議上達(dá)成的。根據(jù)新的聲明，該國5月份的原油日產(chǎn)量將維持在60.3萬桶，6月份和7月份的原油日產(chǎn)量分別為61萬桶和62萬桶。
歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)，隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，2021年全球石油需求將增加。歐佩克秘書長(zhǎng)穆罕默德·巴金多(Mohammed Barkind)表示，該組織技術(shù)委員會(huì)證實(shí)了之前對(duì)全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)。
由于美國、印度和歐元區(qū)等國家的復(fù)蘇，全球GDP預(yù)計(jì)在2021年增長(zhǎng)5.5%，該組織及其盟友預(yù)計(jì)，全球原油需求將增加600萬桶/天。
歐佩克官網(wǎng)援引該官員的話稱:“與上次會(huì)議相比，對(duì)石油的預(yù)測(cè)基本沒有變化，今年的平均需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)600萬桶，至約9650萬桶，增幅為6.6%。”
巴金多補(bǔ)充道:“事實(shí)上，我們預(yù)計(jì)第四季度需求將超過9900萬桶/天，這將回到疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。”
2020年，歐佩克+主要產(chǎn)油國就限制原油產(chǎn)量達(dá)成的協(xié)議，是維持石油市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定的主要因素之一。
截至格林威治標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)間7點(diǎn)20分，全球油價(jià)上漲，布倫特原油交易價(jià)突破每桶75美元，美國基準(zhǔn)WTI原油價(jià)格上漲40美分，至每桶73.41美元。
王佳晶 摘譯自 RT
原文如下：
EIA changes Azerbaijan's 2021-22 oil production volume forecasts
Neftegaz.RU. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has changed its forecast for Azerbaijan's average daily oil production for 2021-2022, Azernews analysed.
The agency decreased its forecast for Azerbaijan's daily oil production for 2021 by 10,000 barrels to 730,000 barrels in its report released in June.
It should be noted that according to the report published in May, the agency forecasted daily oil production to be 740,000 barrels in 2021.
The agency also decreased its forecast of Azerbaijan’s daily oil production in 2022 from 790,000 barrels to 780,000 barrels.
According to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the average daily oil production in Azerbaijan was 740,000 barrels in the 1st quarter of 2021.
Meanwhile, the country's average daily oil production is projected to be 710,000 barrels in the 2nd quarter of the current year.
The average daily oil production was at the level of 700,000 barrels in 2020.
Thus, the average daily oil production in Azerbaijan was 760,000, 690,000, 660,000 and 690,000 barrels in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters of 2020 respectively.
Since April 2020, OPEC+ countries entered into an agreement on the reduction of daily oil production volume.
Earlier, Azerbaijan supported the OPEC+ agreement on increasing the crude oil production up to 1.1 million barrels in May, June and July, reached at the 15th ministerial meeting.
Under the new Declaration of Cooperation, the country’s daily crude oil production will be maintained at 603,000 barrels in May, 610,000 barrels in June and 620,000 barrels in July.
OPEC expects increase in global oil demand in 2021 amid world's post-pandemic recovery
The technical committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has confirmed its previous outlook concerning the growth in global demand for oil, according to the OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkind.
According to Barkind, the group and its allies expect the world’s demand for crude to increase by six million barrels per day, as global GDP is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2021 due to recoveries in such countries as the US, India along with the Eurozone.
“The projections for oil are largely unchanged from our last meeting, with demand expected to grow by six million b/d to around 96.5 million b/d on average for the year, an increase of 6.6%,” the website of the organization cites the official.
“In fact, we anticipate that demand will surpass 99 million b/d in the fourth quarter, which would put us back in the range of pre-pandemic levels,” Barkind added.
The secretary also said that the agreement on capping production of crude clinched between OPEC members and allied leading oil producers last year, is one of the major factors for sustainable oil market stability.
As of 7:20 GMT, global oil prices were rising on Wednesday with Brent crude trading above $75 a barrel, and US crude benchmark WTI up 40 cents to $73.41 a barrel.
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