據(jù)世界石油7月1日消息，隨著需求的持續(xù)反彈，美國原油庫存正在以數(shù)十年來最快的速度下降，這推動(dòng)了石油期貨市場的反彈。

　　在過去四周，包括戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備在內(nèi)的總庫存以每日115萬桶的速度下降，創(chuàng)下了自1982年以來美國能源信息署（EIA）數(shù)據(jù)滾動(dòng)計(jì)算的最大四周降幅。

　　與此同時(shí)，紐約商品交易所周三價(jià)差反彈，9月份西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)期貨合約本月第二次約較10月份的價(jià)差升至1美元/桶，表明市場預(yù)期今年夏季原油供應(yīng)將持續(xù)緊張。

　　歐佩克及其盟國將于周四舉行重要會(huì)議，討論增產(chǎn)的可能性。在此之前，創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的減產(chǎn)速度凸顯了美國石油需求復(fù)蘇的力度。

　　隨著美國擺脫數(shù)月的封鎖，越來越多的美國人有了公路和航空出行需求。為了滿足需求，煉油商將原油加工提高到了疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。本月早些時(shí)候，美國人口最多的加州重啟經(jīng)濟(jì)，紐約州則取消了大部分限制措施。

　　與此同時(shí)，美國鉆探商對(duì)油價(jià)的反應(yīng)一直比較緩慢。今年迄今為止，油價(jià)已上漲逾50%。美國國內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量目前較去年年初的峰值水平低約15%。

　　WTI期貨交割點(diǎn)俄克拉荷馬州庫欣的庫存水平進(jìn)一步支撐了所謂的時(shí)間間隔。該中心的庫存處于一年多來的最低水平。分析師估計(jì)，交易員押注到今年夏末，供應(yīng)量將跌至多年來的低點(diǎn)。

　　本月前，自2018年以來，第二月和第三月WTI合約的價(jià)差從未超過每桶1美元。

　　盡管從亞洲和歐洲的疫情危機(jī)中復(fù)蘇并不順利，但海外對(duì)美國原油的興趣也一直在上升。盡管WTI價(jià)格反彈令其與全球基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油的價(jià)差收窄至每桶不到2美元，美國原油出口依然強(qiáng)勁。

　　全球供應(yīng)形勢看來仍將吃緊，在需求不確定性很大的情況下，歐佩克及其盟國仍未就多少關(guān)井原油可以重返市場達(dá)成共識(shí)。這使得部長們之間的初步談判推遲了一天，以便在周四的討論之前有更多的時(shí)間達(dá)成妥協(xié)。國際能源署(IEA)警告稱，除非該組織迅速采取行動(dòng)增加原油供應(yīng)，否則今年下半年將出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)短缺。

　　裘寅 編譯自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. crude inventories depleting at record pace on surging oil demand

　　Crude inventories in the U.S. are falling at the fastest rate in decades as demand continues to rebound, prompting a rally in the oil futures market.

　　Over the last four weeks total stockpiles, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have fallen at a rate of 1.15 million barrels a day, marking the largest four-week decline on a rolling basis in Energy Information Administration Data going back to 1982.

　　Meanwhile, Nymex calendar spreads rallied Wednesday, with the September West Texas Intermediate futures contract rising to $1 a barrel premium over October for the second time this month, pointing to expectations for ongoing supply tightness through the summer.

　　The record rate of drawdowns underscore the strength of the U.S. oil demand recovery just ahead of a critical meeting between OPEC and its allies on Thursday to debate a potential output increase.

　　Americans are taking to the roads and skies at increasing numbers as the country emerges from months of lockdowns. To meet demand, oil refiners boosted crude processing to levels only seen before the pandemic. Earlier this month, California, America’s most populous state, re-opened its economy, while New York ended most of its curbs.

　　At the same time U.S. drillers have been slow to respond to the oil prices, which are up more than 50% so far this year. Domestic crude production is holding at roughly 15% below peak levels seen early last year.

　　Further supporting the so-called timespreads are stockpile levels in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures. Inventories in the hub are at the lowest levels in over a year.

　　Analysts are estimating and traders are betting that supplies will drop to multi-year lows by the end of the summer.

　　Prior to this month, the spread between the second month and third month WTI contracts hadn’t exceeded $1 a barrel since 2018.

　　Overseas interest in American crude has also been climbing despite a bumpy recovery from the health crisis in Asia and Europe. Exports of U.S. crude remain strong even as rallies in WTI have narrowed its spread to less than $2 a barrel relative to global benchmark Brent.

　　The global supply situation looks set to remain tight as OPEC and its allies have yet to come to a consensus on how much shut-in oil to return to the market at a time when there is much demand uncertainty. That has delayed preliminary talks between ministers by a day to allow more time for a compromise before Thursday’s discussion. The International Energy Agency has warned of supply deficits in the second half of this year unless the group acts fast to add more crude.

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