???? 據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2021年7月9日報道，瑞銀全球財富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)大宗商品和外匯業(yè)務(wù)執(zhí)行董事韋恩?戈登表示，全球原油需求明年第一季度前將回升至新冠肺炎疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。
????戈登本周在接受彭博社記者采訪時表示，石油的前景相當(dāng)光明，他補(bǔ)充說，一旦歐佩克解決了內(nèi)部分歧，我們可能很快就會看到更多的原油產(chǎn)量進(jìn)入市場。 這位分析師指出，7月8日公布的最新的美國原油和燃料庫存出現(xiàn)了下降，這表明需求正在加強(qiáng)。
????由于新冠病毒的最新變種獲得越來越多的關(guān)注，除非全球新冠病毒感染再次爆發(fā)，否則全球石油需求明年初可能會恢復(fù)到大流行前的水平。
????瑞銀的戈登并不是唯一一個看好原油市場未來行情的人。 各大銀行也很樂觀。 舉例來說，高盛公司堅持其對布倫特原油第三季度價格為每桶80美元的預(yù)測，理由是需求的快速反彈。 摩根大通對此表示贊同，認(rèn)為布倫特原油價格在本季度將突破80美元。
????美國銀行則更進(jìn)一步：該行的分析師認(rèn)為，布倫特原油價格可能會達(dá)到每桶100美元，但不是今年。 他們預(yù)計這個價格將在明年年中出現(xiàn)，這意味著美銀分析師預(yù)計供應(yīng)將繼續(xù)吃緊。
????與此同時，全球原油庫存正在下降，而非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國的供應(yīng)卻沒有在其他情況下增長得那么快。 美國的供應(yīng)尤其如此。 在之前的周期中，美國生產(chǎn)商很快就開始提高產(chǎn)量，但現(xiàn)在他們轉(zhuǎn)向了觀望模式， 這為價格上升提供了額外的動力。
????不過，沒有什么是一成不變的，即使需求仍在上升，油價漲勢也可能停止。
????全球最大的場外石油經(jīng)紀(jì)商PVM Oil Associates分析師Tamas Varga上周告訴CNBC，油價上漲“只有在各國央行出于對通脹的擔(dān)憂而出人意料地提高利率，或者萬一歐佩克將產(chǎn)量提高到超出需求的水平時， 或者如果這個波斯灣歐佩克成員國重返市場，才會突然結(jié)束。”
????李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)
????原文如下：
????UBS: Oil Demand To Return To Pre-Covid Levels By Q1 2022
????Crude oil demand will rebound to pre-pandemic levels by the first quarter of 2022, according to Wayne Gordon, executive director of commodities and forex at UBS Global Wealth Management.
????Speaking to Bloomberg this week, Gordon said the outlook for oil was quite bright even though, he added, we could see more production soon once OPEC settled their internal differences. The analyst noted the latest drawdown in U.S. crude oil—and fuel—inventories reported yesterday, which signaled strengthening demand.
????Barring another flare-up in Covid-19 infections as the latest variant of the coronavirus gains growing attention, oil demand could be back to its level from before the pandemic early next year.
????UBS’s Gordon is far from alone in his bullish view of oil. Bankers are bullish, too. Goldman, for one, has stuck to its price forecast of $80 per barrel of Brent in the third quarter, citing the fast rebound in demand. JP Morgan agrees, seeing Brent topping $80 in the current quarter.
????Bank of America goes further: its analysts believe Brent crude could reach $100 per barrel but not this year. They see this price for the middle of 2022, meaning BofA analysts expect supply to remain tight.
????Meanwhile, global inventories are falling while non-OPEC supply is not rising as fast as it would have under other circumstances. This is particularly true of U.S. supply. In previous cycles, U.S. producers were quick to start ramping up production but now they have switch to a wait-and-see mode. This provides additional fuel for prices.
????Nothing is set in stone, however, and the price rally could be halted even with demand still on the rise.
????The rally “would only come to an abrupt end if central banks start increasing interest rates unexpectedly because of fear of inflation or in case OPEC raises production above demand ,” PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga told CNBC last week.
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