據(jù)今日油價(jià)7月29日?qǐng)?bào)道，大約一周前，沙特能源部長(zhǎng)阿卜杜勒-阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼王子在接受彭博社采訪時(shí)表示，沙特阿拉伯將會(huì)是堅(jiān)挺到最后的石油供應(yīng)商，所有的油氣資源都會(huì)被釋放出來(lái)。

　　要知道，本·薩勒曼被譽(yù)為全球油氣行業(yè)最有權(quán)勢(shì)的人，這個(gè)言論是在最新的歐佩克+協(xié)議達(dá)成后不久發(fā)表的，而沙特阿美首席執(zhí)行官阿明·納賽爾在2019年1月表達(dá)了類(lèi)似的觀點(diǎn)。

　　這可能不是毫無(wú)意義的恫嚇。2019年末, 國(guó)際能源署（IEA）石油工業(yè)和市場(chǎng)部主管尼爾·阿特金森（Neil Atkinson）表示,“至少在未來(lái)十年，甚至更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間內(nèi)，石油產(chǎn)品的需求將不斷上升，這將鞏固（沙特阿拉伯）作為全球市場(chǎng)基石的角色，成為市場(chǎng)上最可靠和最大的供應(yīng)商。”

　　阿特金森還強(qiáng)調(diào)了另一個(gè)很少被討論的石油需求逆風(fēng)影響因素，即關(guān)鍵需求地區(qū)人口的減少。阿特金森認(rèn)為，人口增長(zhǎng)仍然是石油需求的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力，他估計(jì)石油需求可能在本世紀(jì)30年代達(dá)到峰值。

　　在過(guò)去的幾年里，能源界的大部分注意力都集中在氣候變化等似乎更關(guān)乎生死存亡的危機(jī)上。現(xiàn)在，重點(diǎn)聚焦在新冠肺炎疫情的局勢(shì)上，但人口減少很少被認(rèn)為是長(zhǎng)期石油需求前景的主要不利因素。這可能是因?yàn)椋c其他兩個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素不同，人口下降確實(shí)是一個(gè)聽(tīng)起來(lái)有利的事情，因?yàn)檫@說(shuō)明更多的女性接受教育和工作，以及更多的避孕手段，導(dǎo)致女性可以選擇少生孩子。另一個(gè)原因是，人口下降是一個(gè)非常緩慢的過(guò)程，其全面影響可能需要幾十年才能感受到。

　　但毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)的是，專(zhuān)家們現(xiàn)在警告稱，世界人口正在以比預(yù)期更快的速度下降，這可能最終會(huì)對(duì)包括能源在內(nèi)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)主要領(lǐng)域產(chǎn)生巨大影響。

　　7月初，華盛頓大學(xué)(University of Washington)健康指標(biāo)與評(píng)估研究所(Institute for Health Metrics and evaluation)的研究人員警告稱，人口下降和老齡化已不再是發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的問(wèn)題，而是世界大多數(shù)國(guó)家目前正在面臨的問(wèn)題，這些國(guó)家都在漸漸過(guò)渡到人口自然下降的情況。

　　1950年，女性一生平均生育4.7個(gè)孩子，后來(lái)，生育率在2017年幾乎減半至2.4，預(yù)計(jì)到2100年將降至1.7以下。這一數(shù)字遠(yuǎn)低于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家平均每位婦女生育2.1個(gè)孩子的更替水平，這意味著到本世紀(jì)初，全球人口將經(jīng)歷大規(guī)模縮減。

　　事實(shí)上，研究人員預(yù)測(cè)，全球人口將在2064年左右達(dá)到97億的峰值，然后在2100年降至88億。

　　主要石油消費(fèi)國(guó)人口下降

　　對(duì)油氣看漲者來(lái)說(shuō)，長(zhǎng)期形勢(shì)不明朗的原因是，預(yù)計(jì)主要石油和天然氣消費(fèi)國(guó)的人口將大幅下降。

　　中國(guó)是世界第二大石油消費(fèi)國(guó)，每天的消費(fèi)量估計(jì)為1280萬(wàn)桶，而日本是世界第四大石油消費(fèi)國(guó)，每天的消費(fèi)量為400萬(wàn)桶。

　　第三大石油消費(fèi)國(guó)印度的情況將略好一些，但到2100年仍將損失四分之一的人口。俄羅斯是世界第五大人口大國(guó)，預(yù)計(jì)其人口將下降15-50%。

　　美國(guó)人口預(yù)計(jì)將從2020年的3.31億增長(zhǎng)到2060年的4.04億，屆時(shí)人口預(yù)計(jì)將保持穩(wěn)定。

　　與美國(guó)一樣消耗石油的歐元區(qū)是少數(shù)幾個(gè)亮點(diǎn)地區(qū)之一。歐洲人口預(yù)計(jì)將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，從2020年的5.07億增長(zhǎng)到2075年的7.08億，到2100年下降到6.89億。

　　然而，歐洲也制定了一些世界上最積極的氣候目標(biāo)，歐盟已經(jīng)宣布了一系列氣候變化提案，旨在推動(dòng)其實(shí)現(xiàn)到2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中和的目標(biāo)。

　　人口減少的問(wèn)題可能會(huì)因老齡化危機(jī)而加劇。

　　據(jù)英國(guó)廣播公司報(bào)道，到2100年，全球80歲老人的數(shù)量將從目前的1.41億人增加到8.66億人。

　　在美國(guó)，到2060年，65歲及以上的美國(guó)人將從5640萬(wàn)增加到9820萬(wàn)，增幅近75%。根據(jù)2019年的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，并假設(shè)每位司機(jī)每加侖汽油平均行駛20英里，這意味著汽油需求將下降約5%。55-64歲年齡組的行駛里程(每年11972英里)大幅下降至65歲及以上年齡組的7646英里。

　　老齡化也會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生不利影響，60歲以上人口比例增加10%，人均GDP增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)計(jì)將下降5.5%。

　　非洲的情況

　　非洲人口的快速增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)在一定程度上彌補(bǔ)這一不足，但可能遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不足以遏制發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。

　　非洲是一個(gè)有趣的案例，這不僅是因?yàn)閷?duì)未來(lái)幾十年的人口預(yù)測(cè)在某種程度上可能是至關(guān)重要的，而且還因?yàn)榉侵薮箨憮碛旋嫶蟮娜丝冢刻煜?30萬(wàn)桶石油，甚至只是略低于印度。

　　聯(lián)合國(guó)預(yù)計(jì)非洲人口將從2020年的13億增加一倍，到2050年達(dá)到25億，到2100年達(dá)到43億。聯(lián)合國(guó)估計(jì)，非洲的生育率(從1980年的6.7降至4.4)還需要30年才能降至每個(gè)婦女生育3個(gè)孩子以下。

　　然而，這低估了非洲大陸大部分地區(qū)上學(xué)女孩數(shù)量大幅增加的影響。上世紀(jì)70年代，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的小學(xué)入學(xué)率僅略高于一半，此后這一比例幾乎上升到100%。

　　從世界其他地區(qū)獲得的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)表明，在預(yù)測(cè)人口增長(zhǎng)曲線時(shí)，教育因素不可低估。

　　此外，盡管大多數(shù)新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體都沒(méi)有參與到持續(xù)的ESG繁榮中來(lái)，但非洲正在趕上國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的預(yù)測(cè)，即到2050年，非洲的電力消費(fèi)將有意義地轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源，預(yù)計(jì)到2100年，大部分電力將來(lái)自太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能。

　　總的來(lái)說(shuō)，我們可以推測(cè)，全球的人口趨勢(shì)對(duì)長(zhǎng)期的石油需求前景構(gòu)成了緩慢但真實(shí)的威脅，甚至取代了世界各國(guó)政府感到日益頭疼的氣候政策。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

　　原文如下：

　　Shrinking Global Populations Poses An Existential Threat To Oil

　　about a week ago, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman made waves in the oil community after telling Bloomberg News that Saudi Arabia "...is going to be the last man standing, and every molecule of hydrocarbon will come out."

　　The comments by bin Salman—heralded as the most powerful man in the global oil and gas industry—came shortly after the latest OPEC+ agreement and mirrored those by Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, who expressed similar sentiments back in January 2019.

　　And this might not be idle bluster: In late 2019, Neil Atkinson, head of the oil industry and markets division at the International Energy Agency, told CNBC that, "There's going to be rising demand for at least the next decade for oil products, possibly longer, and this is cementing [Saudi Arabia's] role as the cornerstone player in global markets, the most reliable and biggest supplier in markets."

　　Atkinson also highlighted another rarely discussed oil demand headwind: Shrinking populations in key demand locations. According to Atkinson, population growth remains the key driving force for oil demand, which he estimated could peak in the 2030s.

　　Over the past few years, most of the energy community's attention has been focused on seemingly more existential crises such as climate change. Now, the focus is on the Covid-19 pandemic. But seldom is population decline mentioned as a major headwind for the long-term oil demand outlook.

　　Maybe that's the case because, unlike the other two risk factors, population decline really is a success story being driven by more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children. Another reason is because population decline is a much slower process whose full effects could take decades to be felt.

　　But make no mistake about it: Experts are now warning that the world's population is declining at faster than anticipated rates, which could end up having a dramatic effect on major sectors of the global economy, including energy.

　　In early July, Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and evaluation warned that declining and aging populations are no longer a problem for developed economies but, rather, most of the world is currently transitioning into natural population decline.

　　In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime; the fertility rate nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017 and is projected to fall below 1.7 by 2100.

　　That's well below the 2.1 children per woman that's considered the replacement level for developed nations, meaning the global population will be experiencing massive contraction by the turn of the century.

　　Indeed, the researchers have projected that the global population will peak at 9.7 billion around 2064 before falling down to 8.8 billion by 2100.

　　Population Declines by Major Oil Consumers

　　What makes the long-term situation murky for the oil and gas bulls is the large population declines expected in major oil and gas consumers.

　　By 2100, China is the world's second-largest oil consumer in the world, with a daily consumption estimated at 12.8 million barrels per day, while Japan is the fourth largest with a daily consumption of 4.0 million barrels per day.

　　India, the third-largest oil-consuming nation, will fare a bit better but will still lose a quarter of its population by 2100. Russia, the 5th largest, is projected to see its population drop between 15-50%.

　　The U.S. population is projected to expand from the current 331 million in 2020 to 404 million in 2060, when it's expected to plateau.

　　The Eurozone—a region that consumes as much oil as the United States—is one of the few bright spots. Europe is projected to continue growing its population from 507 million in 2020 to 708 million in 20175 before falling to 689 million by 2100.

　　However, Europe also has also set some of the world's most aggressive climate targets, with the European Union having announced a raft of climate change proposals aimed at pushing it towards its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050.

　　The problem of falling populations is likely to be aggravated by an aging crisis.

　　The world's number of 80-year-olds is expected to rise from 141 million currently to 866 million by 2100, according to the BBC.

　　In the United States, the number of Americans aged 65 or older will jump nearly 75% by 2060 from 56.4 million to 98.2 million. This translates into a demand drop for gasoline of about 5% when looking at 2019 usage statistics and assuming an average of 20 miles per gallon, per driver. Miles driven per year drops dramatically from the 55-64 age bracket (11,972 miles per year) to 7,646 for the 65 and over age bracket.

　　Aging will also adversely affect the economy, with a 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ estimated to decrease the growth rate of GDP per capita by 5.5%.

　　The African Situation

　　Rapid population growth in Africa could take up some of that slack but will likely be far from adequate to stem the tide in the developed world.

　　Africa is an interesting case not only due to the fact that demographic forecasts of coming decades diverge in a way that could be crucial but also due to the fact that the continent has a huge population that consumes 4.3 million barrels of oil per day, or slightly less than India.

　　The UN expects Africa's population to double from 1.3 billion in 2020 to 2.5 billion by 2050 and 4.3 billion people by 2100. The UN reckons that fertility rates in Africa—which have dropped to about 4.4 from 6.7 in 1980—will take another three decades to fall below three children per woman.

　　However, that underestimates the impact of a big jump in the number of girls who are now going to school across large parts of the continent. In the 1970s, little more than half of all children in sub-Saharan Africa were enrolled in primary school, a proportion that has since shot up to almost 100%.

　　Lessons garnered from other parts of the world that have recorded such dramatic increases in enrollment rates suggest that this factor cannot be underestimated in predicting the population growth curve.

　　Further, although emerging economies have mostly been missing in the ongoing ESG boom, Africa is catching up with the IMF predicting a meaningful shift in African power consumption to renewables by 2050, with most power expected to come from solar and wind by 2100.

　　Overall, we can surmise that population trends across the globe pose a slow yet real and insidious threat to the long-term oil demand outlook even in lieu of increasingly hostile climate policies by the world's governments.

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