據(jù)俄羅斯油氣網(wǎng)12月27日奧斯陸報道，挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（ Rystad）27日公布的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2021年，東南亞地區(qū)平均油氣日產(chǎn)量從2020年的506萬桶油當(dāng)量降至486萬桶油當(dāng)量，與2019年疫情爆發(fā)前的550萬桶油當(dāng)量相比，大幅下降了12%。  

在石油市場出現(xiàn)前所未有的混亂之際，東南亞地區(qū)運營商減緩了活動水平，努力彌補疫情引發(fā)的生產(chǎn)損失。

預(yù)計這一下降趨勢將持續(xù)到本十年中期。

Rystad預(yù)測，盡管2022年產(chǎn)量將保持穩(wěn)定，但到2025年前，東南亞地區(qū)的油氣平均日產(chǎn)量將再下降10%，至430萬桶油當(dāng)量左右。  

相比之下，東南亞地區(qū)的天然氣日產(chǎn)量在2009年至2019年期間保持穩(wěn)定，約為208億立方英尺。盡管預(yù)計天然氣銷量將會上升，以抵消2020年8%的產(chǎn)量下降，但預(yù)計2021年的天然氣日產(chǎn)量將比2020年下降約2%，約為190億立方英尺。

對大多數(shù)東南亞國家來說，超過60%的油氣產(chǎn)量來自成熟油氣田，這些成熟油氣田的產(chǎn)量占其資源量的50%以上。

未來幾年，這些成熟油氣田的產(chǎn)量可能會持續(xù)下降，預(yù)計到2030年前，60%的產(chǎn)量可能來自目前處于最終投資決定前階段的項目。 

Rystad說，“因此，東南亞地區(qū)上游前景背后的驅(qū)動力將是新開發(fā)項目的批準”。2020年是東南亞地區(qū)批準活動的噩夢之年，6處資產(chǎn)中只有約3億桶油當(dāng)量的石油資源獲得了最終投資決定。Rystad表示，隨著運營商試圖在2021年繼續(xù)推進，東南亞地區(qū)已有10多個項目獲得了最終投資決定，儲量約為7.5億桶油當(dāng)量，新油田投資約30億美元，其中馬來西亞占85%。

2022年東南亞地區(qū)不太可能看到支出的大幅增加，預(yù)計全年油氣投資將在150億至200億美元之間。  

由于國家石油公司將掌握控制權(quán)，并將重點放在頂級生產(chǎn)油氣田上，2022年印尼和泰國成熟成熟油氣田的鉆井活動增加可能會推動投資。

李峻 編譯自 俄羅斯油氣網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Southeast Asia’s oil & gas output at lowest level since 1998

Daily average hydrocarbon production tumbled to 4.86 million boepd in 2021, down from 5.06 million boepd in 2020, and a massive 12% drop compared to the pre-pandemic volumes of 5.5 million boepd in 2019, Rystad Energy data shows.

Operators have struggled to regain production losses triggered by the pandemic as they slowed down activity levels amid an unprecedented disruption in oil markets. 

The decline is projected to continue into the middle of the decade. 

Although volumes will remain stable in 2022, production will drop an additional 10% by 2025 to around 4.3 million boepd versus current levels, predicts Rystad.

By contrast, natural gas production in the region stayed steady between 2009 and 2019, at around 20.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd). 

Despite expectations of a rise in gas sales volume that would counter the 8% fall in production in 2020, volumes are expected to be down around 2% this year compared to 2020, at about 19 Bcfd. 

For most of Southeast Asia, over 60% of output comes from mature blocks – fields producing more than 50% of its resource. 

Volumes from such blocks are likely to see a consistent decline over the next few years, with an estimated 60% of production by 2030 likely coming from projects currently at the pre-FID stage. 

Consequently, the driving force behind the region’s upstream outlook will be the sanctioning of new developments, reported Rystad.

2020 was a nightmare year for regional sanctioning activity, with only around 300 million boe of resources from 6 assets reaching FIDs. 

As operators tried to move forward in 2021, the region has seen more than 10 projects secure FIDs, with around 750 million boe of reserves and some $3 billion in greenfield investment, with Malaysia accounting for 85% of the total, said Rystad.

Southeast Asia is unlikely to see a substantial increase in spending in 2022, with investments projected to be in the range of $15 billion to $20 billion across the year. 

Investments will likely be driven by increased drilling activity in mature blocks in Indonesia and Thailand, as NOCs take the reins and focus on top-producing blocks.

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