據(jù)OILNOW網(wǎng)站1月9日消息 總部位于英國(guó)的咨詢(xún)公司伍德麥肯茲表示，今年油價(jià)不會(huì)持續(xù)超過(guò)每桶100美元。

The Edge首席分析師及作者西蒙·弗勞爾斯表示：“在歐佩克+的管理下，根據(jù)我們的預(yù)測(cè)，2022年市場(chǎng)將再次恢復(fù)平衡。”

弗勞爾斯表示，到第三季度，需求增加450萬(wàn)桶/天，回到疫情前1億桶/天的水平，供應(yīng)增加480萬(wàn)桶/天，約一半來(lái)自歐佩克+。

他指出：“庫(kù)存顯示，2022年第一季度將出現(xiàn)盈余，不太會(huì)影響供應(yīng)。我們預(yù)測(cè)布倫特平均每桶70美元/桶，略低于2021年。”

弗勞爾斯表示，在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面，由于冠狀病毒及其變種的影響，伍德麥肯齊茲經(jīng)將2022年的需求量削減了近10萬(wàn)桶/天。

該咨詢(xún)集團(tuán)預(yù)計(jì)高達(dá)100萬(wàn)桶/天的原油可能在幾個(gè)月內(nèi)重返市場(chǎng)。

吳恒磊 編譯自 OILNOW

原文如下：

Oil prices not likely to rise above $100/bbl this year for any sustained period – WoodMac

U.K. based consultancy group Wood Mackenzie says it is unlikely that oil prices will rise above $100 a barrel (bbl) for any sustained period in this year.

“Under the careful stewardship of OPEC+, the market is back in balance again in 2022 on our forecasts,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman, Chief Analyst and author of The Edge.

Flowers said demand increases by 4.5 million b/d back to pre-pandemic levels of 100 million b/d by Q3, whereas supply rises by 4.8 million b/d, around half from OPEC+.

“Implied inventories show a surplus in Q1 2022 – we do not expect a shortage of supply. Our forecast is for Brent to average US$70/bbl, marginally below 2021,” he pointed out.

Regarding risks, Flowers said due to the impact of the coronavirus and its variants, WoodMac has already trimmed 2022 demand by almost 0.1 million b/d.

The consultancy group  expect up to 1 million b/d of crude could return to market within months.

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