據國際能源及大宗商品價格評估機構阿格斯1月18日報道，全球需求將從2020年的1.2億噸/年增加近四倍，達到4.1億噸/年左右，其中可再生能源綠氫供應三分之二，藍氫供應三分之一。藍氫主要來源于天然氣，但其碳排放被捕獲、封存或再利用。化石衍生的灰氫，預計將被完全淘汰。

報告稱，到2030年，綠氫可能在成本上對藍氫具有競爭力，亞洲的電解成本較低，而在印度和巴西，可再生能源價格低廉，天然氣價格昂貴。綠氫成本預期下降，加上更嚴格的氣候緩解政策，意味著對藍色或灰色氫的投資可能會擱淺。

目前已有30多個國家制定了氫氣計劃，而2017年只有日本制定了這一計劃，低碳氫氣市場的出現可能會影響經濟和政治關系。

報告表示，澳大利亞、智利、摩洛哥、沙特阿拉伯和美國最有可能在2050年前成為主要的清潔氫生產國。澳大利亞、沙特阿拉伯和美國可以保留其能源出口國的角色，但智利、摩洛哥和納米比亞等國家可能會轉而成為能源凈出口國，并獲得地緣戰略重要地位。

日本、韓國和歐洲部分國家和拉丁美洲可能需要進口氫氣來滿足需求，值得一提的是，德國和日本已經在通過外交途徑確保獲得氫氣。

由于運輸氫氣既不切實際又成本高昂，目前大約85%的氫氣是在現場生產和消耗的。國際可再生能源機構(IRENA)預計，到2050年，三分之二的能源將用于國內消費，其余將用于國際貿易。其中一半預計將通過管道輸送，包括改造后的天然氣管道，而另一半預計將以能量密度更高、更容易液化的“氨氣”形式輸送。

報告建議，清潔氫應該優先用于煉油廠，其次是鋼鐵制造和國際航運。城市車輛、短期儲能和住宅供暖首選電氣化解決方案。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Argus Media

原文如下：

Hydrogen to meet 12pc of energy demand by 2050: Irena

Its Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation report projects global demand to near quadruple to around 410mn t/yr from 120mn t/yr in 2020, with green hydrogen produced from renewable energy supplying two-thirds and a third for blue hydrogen that is largely derived from gas but has its carbon emissions captured, stored or reused. Fossil-derived grey hydrogen, almost all the hydrogen currently produced, is expected to be entirely phased out.

Green hydrogen by 2030 may become cost-competitive with blue hydrogen in Asia because of low-cost electrolysers and in India and Brazil where renewables are cheap and gas is expensive, the report said.

"The expected cost reduction in green hydrogen coupled with stricter climate mitigation policies means that investments in blue or grey [hydrogen] may end up stranded," the report said.

More than 30 countries now have hydrogen plans compared with only Japan in 2017, with the emergence of a low-carbon hydrogen market likely to affect economic and political relations.

"Australia, Chile, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United States are best placed to emerge as major clean hydrogen producers by 2050", the report said. Australia, Saudi Arabia and the US can retain their role as energy exporters but countries such as Chile, Morocco and Namibia could flip to become net exporters of energy and "gain in geostrategic importance".

Japan, South Korea and parts of Europe and Latin America will probably need imports to satisfy demand, the report said, highlighting that Germany and Japan are already engaged in diplomacy to secure access to hydrogen.

Around 85pc of hydrogen is currently produced and consumed on site because transporting the gas is impractical and costly. Irena expects two-thirds will be consumed domestically by 2050 and the remainder traded internationally. Of this, half is predicted to move via pipeline — including repurposed natural gas pipelines — while the other half is predicted to move in the form of ammonia that is more energy dense and easier to liquefy.

The report suggests clean hydrogen should be prioritised for use in refineries, followed by steel manufacturing and international shipping. Electrification-based solutions were preferred for urban vehicles, short-term energy storage and residential heating.

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