據(jù)海上工程師網(wǎng)2022年4月22日報道，摩根士丹利4月21日將布倫特原油第三季度價格預(yù)期上調(diào)10美元至每桶130美元，稱上調(diào)的原因是由于供應(yīng)減少，今年石油市場的“缺口將加大”，這可能超過短期需求阻力。

摩根士丹利在一份日期為4月21日的報告中表示：“石油市場正在應(yīng)對GDP負增長以及戰(zhàn)略石油儲備的特別大規(guī)模釋放。”

摩根士丹利補充稱：“我們的預(yù)測仍指向庫存下降和備用產(chǎn)能萎縮。”

摩根士丹利預(yù)計，由于對購買興趣惡化，重啟核協(xié)議缺乏進展以及供應(yīng)問題可能加劇，全球石油供應(yīng)缺口將持續(xù)至今年年底，每日缺口約100萬桶。  

摩根士丹利還將全球石油日需求增長預(yù)期從340萬桶下調(diào)至270萬桶。  

受全球經(jīng)濟增長放緩、利率上升和肺炎疫情封鎖前景的壓力，布倫特原油期貨價格周五下跌。歐盟考慮禁止進口生產(chǎn)大國的石油，此舉將進一步收緊供應(yīng)。 

李峻 編譯自 海上工程師網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Morgan Stanley Lifts Brent Price Forecast for 3Q to $130 a Barrel

Morgan Stanley raised its third-quarter price forecast for Brent by $10 per barrel to $130 citing a "greater deficit" this year due to lower supply, which is likely to outweigh short-term demand headwinds.

"The oil market is contending with negative GDP revisions and a particularly large release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves," Morgan Stanley said in a note dated April 21.

"Our forecasts still point to declining inventories and shrinking spare capacity as the year unfolds," it added.

Morgan Stanley sees a deficit of about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) persisting through 2022 as supply issues are likely to be exacerbated by deteriorating buying interest oil and lack of progress in reviving the nuclear deal.  

The bank also trimmed its oil demand growth forecast to 2.7 million from 3.4 million bpd.

Brent crude futures slipped on Friday pressured by prospects of weaker global growth, higher interest rates, and COVID-19 lockdowns even as the European Union considered a ban on oil which would further tighten supply.