德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所：今年勘探與生產(chǎn)公司將打破現(xiàn)金流紀(jì)錄  

資本約束和更高的油氣價(jià)格是現(xiàn)金流上升的主要原因  

如果油價(jià)保持強(qiáng)勁，美國頁巖行業(yè)可能在2024年初實(shí)現(xiàn)無債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān) 

據(jù)美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)8月25日?qǐng)?bào)道，德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所周四在一份新報(bào)告中稱，由于能源市場(chǎng)正在進(jìn)行調(diào)整，油價(jià)高企，今年全球油氣勘探和生產(chǎn)（E&P）公司可能產(chǎn)生創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1.4萬億美元現(xiàn)金流。  

德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所表示，高企的油氣價(jià)格和金融紀(jì)律已經(jīng)扭轉(zhuǎn)了全球上游行業(yè)的趨勢(shì)，其在資本紀(jì)律方面的努力已經(jīng)獲得了回報(bào)。

德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所表示，資本約束導(dǎo)致油氣行業(yè)“目前處于最健康的時(shí)期之一，與其他行業(yè)相比，其杠桿率（20%）是有史以來最低的，股息收益率（6%）是有史以來最高的”。

德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所估計(jì)，如果布倫特原油價(jià)格平均為每桶106美元，今年全球油氣行業(yè)的自由現(xiàn)金流將達(dá)到1.4萬億美元的歷史最高水平。

在大宗商品價(jià)格飆升和煉油利潤率多年來保持高企的情況下，石油巨頭和美國頁巖生產(chǎn)商都公布了第二季度創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄或接近創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的收益和現(xiàn)金流。 

德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所表示，全球上游行業(yè)2030年前將產(chǎn)生高達(dá)1.5萬億美元的現(xiàn)金盈余，其中70%可能會(huì)在2024年產(chǎn)生。德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所表示，這些額外的資金將足以資助并平衡低碳和核心油氣項(xiàng)目。

此外，如果油價(jià)保持強(qiáng)勁且市場(chǎng)自律，美國頁巖行業(yè)有可能在2024年初實(shí)現(xiàn)無債務(wù)。據(jù)德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所稱，在過去十年中，頁巖生產(chǎn)商有9年的現(xiàn)金流為負(fù)，在2021年-2022年，頁巖生產(chǎn)商的自由現(xiàn)金流可能會(huì)創(chuàng)下歷史新高，有望彌補(bǔ)10年來3000億美元的虧損。

德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所稱，在大量現(xiàn)金流的支撐下，到2030年前，全球上游行業(yè)的低碳資本支出占總資本支出的比例可能從目前的5%提高到30%。  

德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所美國石油、天然氣和化學(xué)品副總裁Amy Chronis在評(píng)論該報(bào)告時(shí)說：“過去幾年，石油和天然氣行業(yè)面臨著真正的破壞，其中一些破壞早在疫情開始產(chǎn)生影響之前就露出痕跡。 然而，這種波動(dòng)的意外結(jié)果是，該行業(yè)似乎處于相對(duì)強(qiáng)勢(shì)的地位。”  

“那些投資新的商業(yè)模式，并能對(duì)不斷變化的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)保持彈性的油氣企業(yè)，將更有可能在這場(chǎng)能源轉(zhuǎn)型中保持、引領(lǐng)和贏得勝利。”德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所在報(bào)告中如是說。

李峻 編譯自 美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil & Gas Industry Set For Record $1.4 Trillion Cash Flow In 2022

·     Deloitte: E&P firms are set to break cash flow records this year.

·     Capital discipline and higher oil and gas prices are the main reasons behind the rise in cash flows.

·     The U.S. shale industry could potentially become debt-free by early 2024 if prices stay strong.

Oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) firms globally could generate combined cash flows of a record $1.4 trillion this year, thanks to high prices in the ongoing readjustment in the energy markets, Deloitte said in a new report on Thursday. 

High oil and gas prices and financial discipline have turned the tide for the global upstream industry, and its efforts at capital discipline have paid off, Deloitte said. 

Capital discipline has resulted in the oil and gas industry being “in one of its healthiest periods currently, with its lowest ever leverage ratio (20%) and one of its highest ever dividend yields (6%), compared to other sectors,” according to Deloitte.  

The consultancy estimates that the industry will see its highest ever free cash flow of US$1.4 trillion in 2022 if Brent Crude price averages $106 per barrel.

Big Oil and U.S. shale producers alike reported record or close to record earnings and cash flows for the second quarter amid soaring commodity prices and multi-year high refining margins. 

Global upstream is set to generate up to $1.5 trillion in surplus cash by 2030, possibly with 70 percent of this surplus generated by 2024. This additional cash could be enough to fund and balance both low-carbon and core oil and gas priorities this decade, Deloitte said.

Moreover, the U.S. shale industry could potentially become debt-free by early 2024 if prices stay strong and discipline prevails. Shale producers, which generated negative cash flows in nine out of the last ten years, will likely see record-high free cash flows in 2021-2022 that could overcome the decade-long loss of $300 billion, according to Deloitte. 

Strengthened with massive cash flows, the global upstream industry could raise low-carbon capital expenditures to 30% of total capex by 2030 in certain scenarios, up from 5% currently, the consultancy said. 

“The oil and gas industry has faced real disruption over the past few years, some of which originated long before the Covid-19 pandemic began to make its impact. However, the unexpected result of this volatility is that the industry seems to be in a relatively strong position,” Amy Chronis, vice chair, U.S. Oil, Gas and Chemicals Leader, Deloitte LLP, said, commenting on the report. 

“Those who invest in new business models and remain resilient to the changing market dynamics will be more likely to sustain, lead and win throughout this energy transition.”