來(lái)自JODI匯編的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，8月份全球石油需求出現(xiàn)反彈，總需求幾乎恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平  

8月份全球石油需求日增200萬(wàn)桶，而此前一個(gè)月每天罕見地減少110萬(wàn)桶

全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和歐佩克+最近的減產(chǎn)決定可能會(huì)減緩未來(lái)全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)  

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)10月17日?qǐng)?bào)道，周一，來(lái)自總部設(shè)在利雅得的聯(lián)合石油數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)(JODI)匯編的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在經(jīng)歷了7月份的反季節(jié)性下降后，全球石油需求在8月份平均每天反彈200萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到疫情暴發(fā)前99%的水平。  

總部位于利雅得的國(guó)際能源論壇(IEF)援引最新JODI數(shù)據(jù)說(shuō)，8月份全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)是受美國(guó)、日本、沙特阿拉伯和印度尼西亞消費(fèi)增加的推動(dòng)。

值得注意的是，8月份全球原油日產(chǎn)量也增加了50萬(wàn)桶，其中沙特阿拉伯原油日產(chǎn)量超過(guò)1100萬(wàn)桶——這是沙特阿拉伯王國(guó)第三次報(bào)告原油日產(chǎn)量超過(guò)1100萬(wàn)桶。

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)8月份原油日產(chǎn)量增加29萬(wàn)桶，比去年同期增加81.3萬(wàn)桶。8月份美國(guó)原油日需求增加146萬(wàn)桶，美國(guó)原油收市庫(kù)存減少2270萬(wàn)桶，至JODI開始記錄以來(lái)的第二低水平。  

在8月份全球石油需求反彈之前，7月份全球的石油日需求量估計(jì)下降了110萬(wàn)桶，這種情況在每年的這個(gè)時(shí)候是不尋常的。 

8月份的需求可能已經(jīng)反彈，但石油市場(chǎng)和石油分析師表示，持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩和即將到來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能會(huì)在短期內(nèi)限制需求增長(zhǎng)。

在歐佩克+聯(lián)盟10月初宣布自2020年以來(lái)最大的減產(chǎn)目標(biāo)水平后，供應(yīng)也將比之前預(yù)期的更受限制。盡管歐佩克+總體上每天削減200萬(wàn)桶，但目前歐佩克+原油日產(chǎn)量的實(shí)際削減量只有這個(gè)數(shù)字的一半，約為100萬(wàn)桶—110萬(wàn)桶。這是因?yàn)樵S多成員國(guó)幾個(gè)月來(lái)都沒能按配額生產(chǎn)原油。  

國(guó)際能源署(IEA)上周警告稱，歐佩克+從11月份起削減原油供應(yīng)的決定增加了全球能源安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并可能導(dǎo)致油價(jià)上漲，這可能成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的引爆點(diǎn)。IEA為此下調(diào)了對(duì)今明兩年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期，并表示：“仍然相對(duì)強(qiáng)勁的總體數(shù)據(jù)掩蓋了正在發(fā)生的急劇放緩，目前預(yù)計(jì)今年第四季度全球石油日需求將同比減少34萬(wàn)桶。”

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Global Oil Demand Rebounded By 2 Million Bpd In August

·     Data from JODI shows that global oil demand rebounded in August, with total demand nearly back at pre-Covid levels.

·     The 2 million August increase in global oil demand followed an unusual 1.1 million bpd drop the month before.

·     The risk of a global economic slowdown and the recent decision by OPEC+ to cut production may slow demand growth going forward.

After a counter-seasonal drop in July, global oil demand rebounded in August by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) to reach 99 percent of pre-Covid levels, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Monday.

Oil demand growth in August was driven by higher consumption in the United States, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia, the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum (IEF) said, citing the latest JODI data.

Of note in August was also a 500,000 bpd increase in global crude oil output, with Saudi Arabia’s production rising above 11 million bpd - only the third time the Kingdom has reported output of over 11 million bpd, according to the JODI database which compiles self-reported figures from countries.

In the United States, crude oil production rose by 290,000 bpd in August and is up by 813,000 bpd from year-ago levels, the data showed. Product demand rose by 1.46 million bpd in August, and U.S. crude oil closing stocks dropped by 22.7 million barrels to their second-lowest level recorded in JODI.

The August rebound in global demand follows an estimated 1.1 million bpd drop in July, which was an unusual slump for this time of the year.

Demand for August may have rebounded, but the oil market and oil analysts say that the ongoing economic slowdown and looming recessions could limit demand growth in the near term.

Supply will also be constrained more than previously expected after the OPEC+ group announced early this month the biggest cut to its target production level since 2020. Despite the headline cut of 2 million bpd, the actual reduction from current OPEC+ oil production would be half that figure, at around 1 million bpd-1.1 million bpd. That’s because many producers haven’t been able to produce to their quotas for months.

The alliance’s decision to cut oil supply as of November increases energy security risks worldwide and could lead to higher oil prices that could be the tipping point for a global recession, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last week. The agency cut its demand growth estimates for this year and next and said that “The still relatively robust headline figure masks a sharp slowdown underway, with demand now forecast to contract by 340 kb/d y-o-y in 4Q22, despite increased gas-to-oil switching in power generation and industry.”