據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)12月7日消息稱，美國(guó)新墨西哥州本月的原油產(chǎn)量將超過(guò)墨西哥。這是渣打銀行大宗商品分析師在油價(jià)網(wǎng)獲得的一份新報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)的結(jié)果，新墨西哥州9月份的石油日產(chǎn)量?jī)H比墨西哥少7.4萬(wàn)桶。

新墨西哥州的產(chǎn)量激增主要集中在Lea和Eddy兩個(gè)區(qū)域，這兩個(gè)地區(qū)目前雇用了美國(guó)16%的活躍石油鉆井平臺(tái)。“新墨西哥州石油產(chǎn)量的上升是我們不擔(dān)心美國(guó)已過(guò)峰值的原因之一；我們預(yù)計(jì)原油產(chǎn)量將在2023年6月達(dá)到歷史新高。”渣打銀行在報(bào)告中表示。

專家預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量將在2023年6月達(dá)到歷史最高水平，并指出，美國(guó)石油液體總產(chǎn)量（包括生物燃料和天然氣液體）在疫情期間暴跌后已經(jīng)完全恢復(fù)。

美國(guó)9月份的油液總產(chǎn)量達(dá)到1950.2萬(wàn)桶/天，比此前的歷史最高水平(2020年1月)高出26.5萬(wàn)桶/天。強(qiáng)勁的基數(shù)效應(yīng)(由于2021年9月的颶風(fēng)活動(dòng))加速了9月份原油同比增長(zhǎng)至135萬(wàn)桶/天，總油液同比增長(zhǎng)至191.9萬(wàn)桶/天。渣打銀行表示，年度增長(zhǎng)數(shù)字將更加溫和，并預(yù)測(cè)2022年美國(guó)原油供應(yīng)的年率增長(zhǎng)將達(dá)到66.3萬(wàn)桶/天，總液態(tài)油供應(yīng)的年率增長(zhǎng)將達(dá)到119.1萬(wàn)桶/天。

美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署(EIA)最近發(fā)生了大轉(zhuǎn)變，將明年的石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)至1234萬(wàn)桶/天，打破2019年創(chuàng)下的1231萬(wàn)桶/天的紀(jì)錄。上個(gè)月，EIA在其短期能源展望(STEO)中，將2023年的產(chǎn)量展望下調(diào)了2.1萬(wàn)桶/天，至1231萬(wàn)桶/天，將2023年的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)下調(diào)了12.1萬(wàn)桶/天，至48.7萬(wàn)桶/天。

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

New Mexico Will Overtake Mexico’s Crude Oil Output This Month

New Mexico is set to overtake Mexico’s crude oil production in the current month. That’s what commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have projected in a new report obtained by Oilprice.com, with New Mexico’s production in September just 74,000 barrels per day less than Mexico’s.

“The surge in New Mexico’s output is centered on two counties, Lea and Eddy, where 16 percent of active U.S. oil rigs are currently employed. Rising New Mexico output is one reason why we do not share concerns that the U.S. is past its peak; we expect crude oil output to reach a new all-time high in June 2023,” StanChart says in the report.

The experts have forecast that U.S. crude oil output will hit an all-time high in June 2023, noting that total U.S. oil liquids output (including biofuels and natural gas liquids, NGLs) has already fully recovered after crashing during the pandemic.

Total US oil liquids output in September clocked in at 19.502mb/d, surpassing the previous all-time high (January 2020) by 265kb/d. A strong base effect (due to hurricane activity in September 2021) accelerated September y/y growth to 1.35mb/d for crude oil and 1.919mb/d for total oil liquids. StanChart says the annual growth numbers will be more modest, and has forecast y/y growth in U.S. supply in 2022 to come in at 663kb/d for crude oil and 1.191mb/d for total oil liquids.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently did an about-face, raising its forecast for oil production next year to reach 12.34M bbl/day next year, breaking the record 12.31M bbl/day set in 2019. Last month, in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA revised its 2023 production outlook lower by 21kb/d to 12.31mb/d and 2023 growth lower by 121kb/d to 487kb/d.