據(jù)離岸工程3月28日?qǐng)?bào)道，海上油氣需求依然強(qiáng)勁，研究公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）預(yù)計(jì)，該領(lǐng)域的支出將創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄，尤其是在中東、巴西和英國(guó)。

根據(jù)能源分析機(jī)構(gòu)雷斯塔能源的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，未來(lái)兩年，海上油氣行業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)將達(dá)到10年來(lái)最高水平，將有價(jià)值2140億美元的新項(xiàng)目等待開(kāi)發(fā)。

據(jù)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，2022年，年度未開(kāi)發(fā)地資本支出（capex）突破了1000億美元，并可能在2023年再次突破。這將是自2012年和2013年以來(lái)，連續(xù)兩年首次出現(xiàn)這種情況。

盡管有100多個(gè)國(guó)家提出或承諾到2050年將全球變暖控制在1.5攝氏度以內(nèi)的凈零目標(biāo)，但全球化石燃料需求仍然強(qiáng)勁。

據(jù)雷斯塔能源稱，2023/2024年，海上活動(dòng)將占所有批準(zhǔn)的常規(guī)碳?xì)浠衔锏?8%。這標(biāo)志著與2015年至2018年（即疫情之前的時(shí)期）相比，增加了40%。

2023年和2024年，供應(yīng)鏈支出將增長(zhǎng)16%，增加120億美元。這將是十年來(lái)的最高同比漲幅。

雷斯塔能源供應(yīng)鏈研究主管馬丁森表示，隨著全球超級(jí)大國(guó)努力在推進(jìn)能源轉(zhuǎn)型的同時(shí)減少碳足跡，海上運(yùn)營(yíng)商和服務(wù)公司在未來(lái)幾年應(yīng)該會(huì)有一筆意外之財(cái)。他將海上油氣生產(chǎn)描述為“提取碳?xì)浠衔锏牡吞济芗头椒ㄖ弧薄?/p>

據(jù)分析師預(yù)測(cè)，中東地區(qū)的海上擴(kuò)張將推動(dòng)這一增長(zhǎng)，該地區(qū)的海上上游支出將超過(guò)其他所有地區(qū)。雷斯塔預(yù)測(cè)，該地區(qū)的海上支出增長(zhǎng)將從今年的330億美元增至2025年的410億美元。

英國(guó)和巴西在上游領(lǐng)域的支出僅次于中東，巴西今年的支出將達(dá)到230億美元，英國(guó)將達(dá)到70億美元。

郝芬 譯自 離岸工程

原文如下：

Report: Offshore oil and gas set for highest growth in a decade

Offshore oil and gas demand remains strong as research firm Rystad Energy predicts record spending in the sector, notably in the Middle East, Brazil and the UK.

Data from energy analysts Rystad Energy shows that offshore oil and gas is set for its highest growth in a decade in the next two years, with $214bn worth of new projects lined up.

The research found that annual greenfield capital expenditure (capex) broke the $100bn threshold in 2022, and will likely break it again in 2023. This would be the first time this has happened in two consecutive years since 2012 and 2013.

Global fossil fuel demand remains strong, despite more than 100 countries having proposed or committed to a net zero target to reduce global warming to 1.5?C by the year 2050.

According to Rystad Energy offshore activity will account for 68% of all sanctioned conventional hydrocarbons in 2023/2024.This marks a 40% increase from 2015-2018, the period prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Supply chain spending is set to grow 16% in 2023 and 2024, an increase of $12bn. This would represent the highest year-on-year gain in a decade.

Audun Martinsen, head of supply chain research at Rystad Energy, said that “offshore operators and service companies should expect a windfall in the coming years as global superpowers try to reduce their carbon footprint while advancing the energy transition”. He describes offshore oil and gas production as “one of the lower carbon-intensive methods of extracting hydrocarbons”.

The analysts predict that offshore expansion in the Middle East will drive this increase, with the region surpassing all others in offshore upstream spending. Rystad predicts that offshore spending growth in the region will go from $33bn this year to $41bn in 2025.

The UK and Brazil sit just behind the Middle East in spending, with Brazilian upstream spending set to reach $23bn this year and $7bn in the UK.