據(jù)路透社5月9日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)周二在其《短期能源展望》(STEO)中表示，美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量將在2023年升至歷史新高，而需求將下降。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，干氣產(chǎn)量將從2022年創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的981.3億立方英尺/天增至2023年的1010.9億立方英尺/天，2024年增至1012.4億立方英尺/天。

該機(jī)構(gòu)還預(yù)計(jì)，2023年國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣消費(fèi)量將從2022年的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的885.3億桶/天降至875.4億桶/天，2024年將降至860.5億桶/天。

如果預(yù)測(cè)正確，2024年將是自2015年以來(lái)石油產(chǎn)量首次連續(xù)四年增長(zhǎng)，這也將是自2006年以來(lái)需求首次連續(xù)兩年下降。

對(duì)2023年的最新預(yù)測(cè)高于EIA 4月份預(yù)測(cè)的1008.7億立方英尺/天的供應(yīng)量和873.7億立方英尺/天的需求量。

該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)液化天然氣(LNG)的日平均出口量將在2023年達(dá)到121.1億立方英尺，2024年達(dá)到127.3億立方英尺，高于2022年創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的105.9億立方英尺。

2023年的LNG預(yù)測(cè)高于4月份EIA預(yù)測(cè)的120.8億立方英尺/天。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，隨著天然氣和可再生能源取代燃煤電廠，美國(guó)煤炭產(chǎn)量將從2022年的5.972億短噸（1短噸=0.907噸）降至2023年的5.771億短噸，為2020年以來(lái)的最低水平，2024年將降至4.912億短噸，為1963年以來(lái)的最低水平。

隨著天然氣需求減少和電力生產(chǎn)商減少煤炭燃燒，EIA預(yù)計(jì)化石燃料的二氧化碳排放量將從2022年的49.64億噸降至2023年的48.30億噸和2024年的48.07億噸。

相比之下，2020年為45.8億噸，是1983年以來(lái)的最低水平，因?yàn)橐咔橐种屏四茉葱枨蟆?/p>

王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

U.S. NATGAS OUTPUT TO HIT RECORD HIGH IN 2023, DEMAND TO FALL

U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023, while demand will fall, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 101.09 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 101.24 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.13 bcfd in 2022.

The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would fall to 87.54 bcfd in 2023 and 86.05 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.53 bcfd in 2022.

If correct, 2024 would be the first time that output rises for four years in a row since 2015. It would also be the first time that demand declines for two years in a row since 2006.

The latest projections for 2023 were higher than the EIA's April forecast of 100.87 bcfd for supply and 87.37 bcfd for demand.

The agency forecast that average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 12.11 bcfd in 2023 and 12.73 bcfd in 2024, up from a record 10.59 bcfd in 2022.

That 2023 LNG forecast was higher than the 12.08 bcfd EIA forecast in April.

EIA projected U.S. coal production would fall from 597.2 million short tons in 2022 to 577.1 million short tons in 2023, the lowest since 2020, and 491.2 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1963, as natural gas and renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants.

As gas demand eases and power producers burn less coal, EIA projected carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would fall from 4.964 billion tonnes in 2022 to 4.830 billion tonnes in 2023 and 4.807 billion tonnes in 2024.

That compares with 4.580 billion tonnes in 2020, which was the lowest since 1983 because the coronavirus pandemic depressed demand for energy.