據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年6月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，加拿大能源監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)日前發(fā)布了一份展望報(bào)告，稱由于全球向清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型，到2050年前，加拿大的原油產(chǎn)量將下降76%，這是該監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)首次對(duì)加拿大原油產(chǎn)量進(jìn)行長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)。加拿大能源監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)還預(yù)測(cè)，從現(xiàn)在到2050年，全球化石燃料的使用量將下降65%。

加拿大石油行業(yè)的短期投資前景同樣悲觀，分析師預(yù)測(cè)該行業(yè)今年的收益將下降19%，這在很大程度上是由于天然氣價(jià)格下跌。

一周前，總部位于巴黎的國(guó)際能源署(IEA)預(yù)測(cè)，由于向可再生能源的轉(zhuǎn)型勢(shì)頭增強(qiáng)，全球原油需求將在本十年結(jié)束之前達(dá)到峰值。

根據(jù)IEA公布的數(shù)據(jù)，全球原油日需求量將從2022—2028年再增加6%，達(dá)到1.057億桶。IEA預(yù)計(jì)，2028年全球原油日需求增加量將降至40萬(wàn)桶，遠(yuǎn)低于2023年預(yù)測(cè)的日增240萬(wàn)桶。

IEA還預(yù)測(cè)，全球交通運(yùn)輸用油需求將在2026年開(kāi)始下降，這在很大程度上要?dú)w功于電動(dòng)汽車革命以及提高能效的政策措施。汽油需求的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將在今年年底出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)，但對(duì)“可燃化石燃料”的需求預(yù)計(jì)將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，直到2028年達(dá)到峰值。IEA認(rèn)為，長(zhǎng)期原油需求將嚴(yán)重下降，并預(yù)測(cè)到2050年前，全球日需求量將降至2400萬(wàn)桶。

其他機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)全球長(zhǎng)期原油需求的預(yù)測(cè)各有不同。

今年早些時(shí)候，能源專家能源情報(bào)集團(tuán)預(yù)測(cè)，全球原油需求不僅將在2023年增加，而且將持續(xù)到本十年末。據(jù)分析師稱，今年全球原油日需求量將增加到1.012億桶，到2030年前將繼續(xù)增加到1.06億桶。今年全球原油日需求量將增加150萬(wàn)桶，其中亞洲大國(guó)原油需求量將日增65萬(wàn)桶。事實(shí)上，今年全球的平均日需求量將超過(guò)2019年1.006億桶的歷史新高。

包括歐佩克、埃克森美孚公司和EIA在內(nèi)的至少10個(gè)機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)，到2050年，全球原油需求將繼續(xù)增加，而不是像大多數(shù)分析師預(yù)測(cè)的那樣將萎縮。其中最樂(lè)觀的是EIA，預(yù)計(jì)全球原油日需求量將增加34%，到2050年達(dá)到1.26億桶。

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Energy Regulator Claims Canadian Oil Production Will Plunge 76% By 2050

The Canada Energy Regulator has issued a grim outlook that the country’s oil production will plunge 76% by 2050 thanks to the world moving to the clean energy transition, marking the first time the regulator has provided a long-term forecast for Canada’s crude output. The energy regulator has also predicted that global fossil fuel usage will decline by 65% between now and 2050. 

The short-term investment outlook for Canada’s Oil Patch is just as bearish, with analysts predicting that earnings for the industry will decline 19% in 2023, in large part due to falling gas prices.

A week ago, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global oil demand will peak before the end of the current decade as the transition to renewable energy gathers momentum.

According to the IEA, global oil demand will rise by another 6% from 2022-28 to hit 105.7 million barrels per day. The agency expects demand growth for oil to slump to just 400,000 barrels per day in 2028, way below growth of 2.4 million barrels per day forecast for 2023. 

The energy agency has also predicted that global demand for oil used in transportation will start declining in 2026, thanks in large part to the EV revolution as well as policy measures that push for more efficiency. Growth in gasoline demand is expected to reverse at the end of the current year, but the demand for “combustible fossil fuels” is expected to continue growing before peaking in 2028. IEA sees long-term oil demand degrading really badly and has predicted demand will fall to just 24 million barrels per day by 2050.

Other agencies have different outlooks for long-term oil demand.

Earlier in the year, energy expert Energy Intelligence Group predicted that not only will oil demand grow in 2023 but it will continue doing so till the end of the decade. According to the analyst, global oil demand will grow to 101.2 million barrels per day in the current year and will continue growing to hit 106 mb/d by 2030. Global oil demand will grow by 1.5 mb/d in 2023, with the biggest country in Asia accounting for 650,000 b/d. Indeed, this year’s average will top the previous high of 100.6 mb/d set in 2019. 

No less than 10 organizations, including OPEC, Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), and the Energy Information Administration (EIA), have predicted that global oil demand will continue growing through 2050 and not shrink as most analysts have forecast. The most bullish among these is the U.S.-based EIA which has projected global oil demand to increase by 34% to hit 126 million barrels per day in 2050.